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Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by Jim D

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I use a 240/120 pass to get a triangular 30-year weight. The main purpose is that it doesn’t suffer so much from end-point effects as the flat 360-month average square-wave method which produces the insignificant blippiness that you have with your spurious minimum just due to a previous max going outside the averaging window. The triangular filter is better at removing short-period noise effects that a simple square wave can’t.


Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

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An Anomaly as used in climate science is the variation of a time series around a mean or average of some selected time period. So instead of saying the temperature changed fro 22 to 22.5 degrees you could say the temperature changed by half a degree or the temperature changed from -0.25 to 0.25 degrees.

For a temperature record huge seasonal swings, you just subtract the average and the seasonal cycle to get the anomaly.

So you go from something like this

To something like this

It makes it easier to calculate the change in lots of time series and add hundreds and thousands of time series together. So even though global land temperature varies by about 15 degrees every year, you can pick out that whopping 0.8 degrees change in temperature anomaly over a hundred years or so.

Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by R. Gates

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As prices fall, output in the US will decline as the companies will opt to leave the asset in the ground until prices warrant production. This is a poker game with OPEC, as ultimately all the producers want higher prices, but the ramped up US production over the past few years created an oversupply, and now OPEC is betting they can use the oversupply to drive prices so low that US output will fall. OPEC has the advantage in that their net cost of production per barrel is lower than the US.

Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by kim

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Photon Steve illuminates the path of Judy’s sabre, Salonword! An old dog magically learns young pup tricks.
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Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by kim

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He retaught me an elementary lesson, for which I’ve never thanked him. Pay attention to the numbers and units on the left side of the graph.
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Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by Max_OK, Citizen Scientist

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Yes, John, I know who paid for the poll.
The fact it was financed by wind power interests doesn’t necessarily make the results wrong, but you are right about questioning the results of this survey or any other survey paid for by an interest group.

I’m glad you want more wind power.

Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by kim

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The sometimes Brownian Motion of the zamboni often elegantly accomplishes your important principle 1.
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Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by Pierre-Normand

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“transpational…” translational


Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by JustinWonder

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Wagathon

“Both Gorawarming and Obamacare come from the same failed mindset that unaccountable government socialists should be free abandon concepts of protecting constitutional liberties and abandon sound scientific methodology because Eurocommie-style bureaucrats know more about how we should live our lives that we do.”

Some people, having been been burned by greedy misbehavior, do not trust capitalism, see the need for the Leviathan, and have an unwavering and irrational confidence in the benevolence of the state. Of course, they either do not know of or have forgotten about the “banality of evil”. Hardly anyone can be more intransigent or unsympathetic than a government bureaucrat protecting their job and it’s lucrative defined benefit pension. They have faith that those bureaucrats will protect them from strong unethical people. The problem was best described by Milton Friedman when he asked Phil Donohue, “Where do you find such angels?”.

Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by Pierre-Normand

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jim2: “During the pre-equilibrium stage, work is being done on the column of air, so during this stage, the average temperature would increase. But as soon as equilibrium was reached, the temperature profile would be stable. Since the system was assumed to be adiabatic (including to radiation), it can’t gain or lose energy, so the temperature profile would be stable from then on.”

And then, thermal conduction (and radiation, internally) will slowly bring the temperature gradient back towards zero.

Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by Max_OK, Citizen Scientist

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Watts didn’t do Ball any favor by posting his piece at WUWT. He should have know it would result in Ball being ridiculed.

Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by Pekka Pirilä

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P-N,
When molecules interact,speed distribution is not Maxwell-Boltzman. The probability of each state is exponential in energy, but the energy of a subsystem large enough to be considered as including all interactions is not the sum of the kinetic energies only, but includes also the potential energy terms from the interaction. If the interaction is attractive as it typically is, the particles accelerate when approaching each other, their kinetic energies increase, while the potential energy goes down.

The dynamics must be studied using QM. The multiparticle wave function cannot be presented as a product of wave functions of individual particles. It’s simply not possible to describe the multiparticle system fully using concepts of kinetic gas theory.

Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by jim2

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Pierre – that would happen only if the gravitational field disappeared.

Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by Max_OK, Citizen Scientist

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And get back any market share lost to U.S producers?

Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by jim2

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P-N. wait. I think you are correct. The temperature would equilibriate within the column, but the pressure gradient would remain.


Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by Max_OK, Citizen Scientist

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Jim2 said “They would also focus their attention on maximizing production of the wells they have which will advance that aspect of the process.”

Jim, I’m not sure what you mean. Will you elaborate?

Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by Dan Hughes

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I have not followed this, very, extended discussion in much detail at all. It seems to me that someone needs to (re-) consider the Boltzmann equation in light of the presence of a volumetric body force plus the limit as the mean free path approaches the dimension of the physical system of interest. Treatment of degenerate, pathological situations and hypothetical end conditions, such as a single particle!, cannot be successfully approached when starting from incomplete fundamentals.

Googles for H. Brenner, H Zhao, S. K. Dadzie, J. M. Reese, H. Struchtrup, and F. Uribe, among others, will lead to discussions of these issues.

Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by John Vonderlin

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Denizens,
I watched a NOVA TV show last night about Forensic Science that I thought was relevant to sorting out Climatologist’s various assertions and what policies are needed to deal with those assertions. The theme was essentially, “There needs to be more Science in Forensic Science.” The section on odontology, specifically bite mark identification, was particularly eye-opening.
The Wikipedia entry on odontology has this excerpt:
“An investigative series by the Chicago Tribune entitled “Forensics under the Microscope” examined many forensic science disciplines to see if they truly deserve the air of infallibility that has come to surround them. The investigators concluded that bite mark comparison is always subjective and no standards for comparison have been accepted across the field. The journalists discovered that no rigorous experimentation has been conducted to determine error rates for bite mark comparison, a key part of the scientific method.”
The part about fingerprint identification in the NOVA show was even more biting. The dynamics of the misidentification by fingerprint analysis of Brandon Mayfield, as being responsible for the Madrid train bombing that killed 191 people was frightening. This story is easily searchable online and has caused numerous positive changes in Forensic Science.
While it is human nature to be disturbed by being unsure about something, it is potentially so much worse to be sure about something that you shouldn’t be. Question authority. Stay Skeptical. Happy Holidays.

Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by Max_OK, Citizen Scientist

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Thankful for fossil fuels? OK, but don’t forget other things we should be thankful for, including many more important than fossil fuels. Here’s a partial list:

Sunshine
Air
Water
Soil
Plant life (probably most)
Wind
Sex
Mammals (some)
Birds (some)
Insects (some)*

*Obviously bees, but also termites, which get a bad rap. If not for termites, we would have a big dead wood problem.

Comment on Open thread: Thanksgiving edition by jim2

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Max – oil is always left behind in the rock. They probably will drill less and experiment more with secondary recovery techniques or re-fracking existing wells.

I just saw Dennis Gartman on CNBC and he said the shale oil producers have already borrowed money to drill, so apparently some of them won’t cut back on drilling immediately. He said we will surpass Saudi Arabia in oil production and that in 6 months or so we might see a slowing of production increases.

I still have my handful of shale oil stocks. All were down, one as much as 25%. After the initial shock, some will swoop in to get bargains. If the worlds economies pick up, so will the price of oil. If China decides to build oil reserves due to cheap oil, the price will go up. I’m in these for a couple of years at least.

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