Reblogged this on <a href="http://ididntasktobeblog.wordpress.com/2015/01/05/2014-%e2%86%92-2015/" rel="nofollow">I Didn't Ask To Be a Blog</a>.
Comment on 2014 → 2015 by dynam01
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by Don Monfort
John V.
I don’t know about the market for longer range weather forecasts, but I imagine it’s rather like the investment adviser/mutual fund industry. Fund managers and investment advisers are ranked by those in the industry who make money by ranking investment advisers and fund managers. The top ranked guys get the client’s and the money, until the new rankings come out, then the new top ranked guys get the client’s and the money.
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Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by Matthew R Marler
PMHinSC: . My claim is that there is no empirical data supporting the claim that anthropogenic CO2 is having an effect on the climate.
Unless there is another mechanism responsible for the warming since 1850, then the co-occurrence of warming with CO2 increase is empirical evidence supporting the claim that anthropogenic CO2 is having an effect on the climate (see Vaughan Pratt above). No convincing evidence for such a mechanism has been reported: modeling such as Scafetta’s that finds periodicities in the global mean climate is evidence that such a mechanism (or set of mechanisms) exists, but a complete account of how the mechanism works has not been proffered. We are stuck, in my opinion, with the most perplexing situation: the evidence does not clearly support any particular explanation for the warming since 1850.
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by Matt Skaggs
Mosher wrote:
“we dont confirm or disconfirm predictions or forecasts we confirm or disconfirm the system that made them.”
Please describe how you validate a model without first evaluating whether the output reasonably tracks the system being modeled.
Mosher wrote:
“All measurement is probabilistic.”
How many cars did you simultaneously drive from home to work today? I’m envisioning the PDF on this, just wondering if you could confirm.
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by Danny Thomas
Ahem. Sorry folks. Governments. From energy demands, water supplies, planning of any number and types of projects (when to schedule shutdowns for maintenance), road and bridge repairs, staffing.
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Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by Matthew R Marler
tonyb: I think our understanding of past climates, and how they might have been shaped, would be improved if we recognised that neither the MWP or the LIA were monolithic unbroken periods of warmth or cold lasting hundreds of years.
I agree with you. The MWP was warmer than now, on the average, and the LIA was cooler than now, on the average, but a well-defined LIA with a clear beginning and end does not seem to have existed — that was the message of the paper by Kelly and O’Grada in vol 8 of the Annals of Applied Statistics.
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Comment on Week in review by Waltheof
Thank you Kim
Very witty poster that you are.
I find predictions of cooling lacking in any evidence ( beyond the inevitable longer term ice age events).
The only evidence we have is the recent warming surge that although appears to have stopped certainly shows no sign of reversal.
Consider all that will be needed to reignite government passion for extreme policy change is another, even small, return to a warming trend.
The policy measures mooted by many are actually quite a huge threat to the world economy but I see them as inevitable.
Judith Curry and her concern about policy in the face of uncertainty makes very compelling arguments that I fear will be generally ignored.
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Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by Matthew R Marler
Steven Mosher: Their goal is not to find the truth and state it with the appropriate caveats and uncertainty estimates. Their goal is to say Not X. Anyone can say not X. Takes no study whatsoever, all you need is a commitment to say no.
Once in a while you are just plain wrong, and this is one of those occasions. All kinds of skeptics say all kinds of stuff, but you have not quoted any of them in particular or any particular claims, or any particular evidence with respect to those claims or your claims about them.
I, for example, have written that the Earth “has warmed”, but that it may not “be warming”. I have also written that the case that CO2 has caused the warming to date is full of holes, and I have cited some of the research about those holes.
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by pokerguy
Hi Judith,
Weatherbell went on record early last spring that there was very little chance of a strong el Nino.
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by oldfossil
I was going to say tourism (like tonyb) but that’s a legal minefield.
Test cricket. A test match is played over five days and there are some very heavy punters.
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by nottawa rafter
The increase in seniors provides more opportunities for impulsive travelling based on the probability of good weather. Resorts in the south could develop a multi faceted marketing strategy targeted to seniors indicating great outdoor recreation weather expected in the next 1-2 months. Vacation destinations send out ads continuously but the uncertainty of nice weather certainly hold back many who don’t want to take a chance too far out. I believe impromptu vacation planning will be rising in the next few decades, held back only by unknowns surrounding weather.
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Comment on Week in review by omanuel
It was 70 years ago, in 1945.
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Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by Matthew R Marler
Vaughan Pratt: What should/could science have done to prevent it?
They could have (a) avoided the repeated and ongoing exaggerations and (b) avoided the conspiracy of silence concerning doubts and qualifications. Scientists, you may recall, asserted that Katrina was a harbinger of things to come and that hurricane seasons would perpetually be more severe than they had been up to that time. Scientists wrote of the death spiral of Arctic ice, and the disappearance of snow from British and N.E. American winters. Scientists tolerated (and reproduced) Lisa Jackson’s ludicrous demonstration of “ocean acidification” by dipping chalk into vinegar. Scientists could have avoided writing stuff such as Schneider wrote about shading the truth in order to support the alarm, and they could have rigorously avoided the pejorative and baseless “denier” insult.
There are lots of things that the scientists ought to have done differently, and most of these have been pointed out repeatedly since Hansen’s, Schneider’s, Holdren’s and Ehrlich’s first exaggerated public announcements.
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by Steven Mosher
“I have no idea what you mean by probabilistic. I know of no one who calculates probabilities when they make measurements or make decisions. Buying groceries would take forever. This is a mistaken metaphor at best.”
When I buy groceries I take every cost and round it up. I’m pretty sure I do this correctly, but sometimes I may make a mistake. So, Im not certain, but more often than not I round up correctly.
So, moving through the isles I put a 1.58 thing in the basket and say
“2” When I get to 50 dollars I decide to stop. I make this decision because
I have 60 bucks in my wallet and I figure that I’ve probably done the addition correctly, and I’ve probably remembered the number correctly,
and that even if I havent I probably have enough in my bank account to pay by debit card if I have to. I also hope the cashier rings me up correctly. Most times they do. So while I am not certain I have enough money, I probably do. I dont have to calculate the probability to know that
A) my decision is based on probabilities
B) I could be wrong.
Buying groceries takes no more time doing it this way and it certainly doesnt take forever, so your prediction is wrong. Your mistake was thinking that one had to actually do a calculation.
When I make a measurement it always comes with uncertainty or error.
This means the true answer is probably within with bounds I specify.
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Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by Basil Newmerzhycky
“When the physics says CO2 should warm the environment, and one observes the environment warming with rising CO2, you need a more nuanced objection than simply that there is no data to support the physics.”
Vaughn, Well said.
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by Wagathon
“Get ready for some bad weather,” the man told his neighbor. “How do you always seem to know before it happens,” the neighbor asked. “Easy,” said the man, “the fellow on the corner goes off for a couple of months every year at about this time and he usually takes is umbrella down before leaving; but, this time he left it up, which means big storms are coming and that umbrella will be a goner.”
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Comment on Week in review by kim
Agree again. Ignorance will be solved by observation.
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Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by Basil Newmerzhycky
Rufus asked:
“Still no peer-reviewed science proving CO2 to be a greenhouse gas capable of globale temperature change.”
As some here have recently posted, the ability of CO2 (as well as Methane and some other gases) to be much more lenient to incoming short-wave radiation (sun) than long wave radiation (think heat from ground below) has been well documented over 100 years ago. Its as basic a principle as “fresh water at standard atmospheric pressure freezes at O deg C”.
There is no recent “peer reviewed” articles on either topic. I doubt one could go to a major physics journal and get a paper published on how water freezes at 0C. Same with CO2 long wave radiation trapping.
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by David Wojick
I know there are ways to evaluate long runs of forecasts (assuming one can actually define the long run) but I do not think any actually measures skill because none of the forecasts are wrong. Probabilistic forecasts are not forecasts because they cannot be wrong (except at the two extremes). They just sound like forecasts and this is a major conceptual confusion.
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Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by Rob Starkey
Vaughan writes: “But we have the data, for both CO2 and temperature.”
Vaughan- LOL If only CO2 drove temperature change you would have what you need to make accurate forecasts.
The truth is that it is a complex system. As Vaughan wrote earlier ECS is a theoretical number that may not be important over timescales meaningful to humans.
What is important is TCR. What Vaughan seem to get wrong is forecasting TCR over specific time periods. What will TCR be over the next 25 years? If someone claims to really know what is happening in this complex system, let them tell you now what TCR will be to CO2 over the next few decades?
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