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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by Curious George

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Could your company get an insurance protecting it against financial consequences of incorrect forecasts?


Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by popesclimatetheory

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mosomoso wrote:
Don’t tell me 70% chance when you think something is going to happen.

I watch the forecasts and I watch what happens. I think their 70% forecasts are really good. They show me the radar and I can second guess. When we don’t get the conditions that were forecast, someone around us usually does. Sometimes it rains around us and not here and sometimes it rains on us and not around us, but there is usually rain somewhere in Houston when they forecast 70%.

It may not work that well where you are, but it works in Southeast Houston, Texas.

Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by JD Ohio

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Judith,

One application for seasonal forecasts would be to make sure that surfing contests are held during periods of good surf. Large surf is caused by major storms, and if those storms could be predicted, it would ensure that there would be large surf for professional surfers. There have been occasions where major surfing contests have been held in virtually no surf.

JD

Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by tonyb

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Willard

I set out the CET area and the various scientists who believe CET to be a good but not perfect proxy for NH and Global temperatures here

http://judithcurry.com/2011/12/01/the-long-slow-thaw/

The area is roughly triangular with a height of 250 miles and a width of 110 miles. The Met office The Dutch Met Office, Mike Hulme and a variety of other scientists all believe there to be this correlation

In this article I also examined Lambs graphs in some detail. Cartoon? In the respect that they are not computer generated or as sophisticated as modern ones. I think his representation of the warmth around 1500 is understated and being a representation it doesn’t show the variability.
I see one of the tweeters was the guy who runs desmogblog and the other was John Mashey.

tonyb

Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by anng

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Steven,

“Even worm brains calculate probabilities.”

No! Brains LEARN-from-experience.

If the aforesaid brains happen upon a lot of extremely low probability events, then that’s what they think will happen. It keeps the worms happier, not knowing there’s anywhere better to live.

Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by tonyb

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JDOhio

We have some big surfing beaches close to us in Cornwall. In practice how would the knowledge of the POSSIBILITY of no surf be used? Championships couldn’t be rescheduled at very short notice and compensation would be due if an event was cancelled but in the end the surf turned up.
tonyb

Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by AK

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In addition McIntyre claimed that when a large number of randomly generated noise data sets processed by noncentered PCA would provide hockey sticks. In order to prove this out of 10,00 randomly generated data sets, he cherry picked 100 data sets that looked like hockey sticks and analysed them. This hardly seems like an honest mistake.

This statement is totally untrue. Like most of the criticisms of M&M’s work, it’s all arm-waving BS, as anybody who’s actually dug into the subject will understand. Typical alarmist smear job.

Links have been posted in comments here many times, I’m not going to waste my time doing it again.

Comment on Week in review by Pooh, Dixie

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plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose


Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by eadler2

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Capt. Dallas.
The failure of northern area tree ring proxies after 1960 was well known to Climate Paleontologists before Mann wrote his paper. All tree ring proxies tracked between 1880 and 1960.
Your defense of McIntyre’s process is lame. The whole purpose of selecting proxies is to select those that correlate reliably with the temperature record. That is what Mann did for the Hockey Stick paper.
That is a different thing from using the principal components statistical method to reduce noise from the variations in the proxies to pick the best linear combination of proxies to represent the noisy data. McIntyre claimed that he could use non-centered PCA on a data set generated by RANDOM NOISE and get a hockey stick. The code he released shows that after the proxies were generated by random noise, he used an algorithm to select the100 data sets that most looked like hockey sticks out of the 10,000 randomly generated data sets, and then used non-centered principal components on them for his demonstration. So McIntyre’s claim seems to have been fraudulent.

Finally even though the outcome of centered PCA was slightly different from non-centered PCA that Mann used in his paper, it was clear that the use of non centered PCA was not responsible for the Hockey Stick, contrary to McIntyre’s claim.

Your reply to the points made by DeepClimate is lame to say the least.You need to read his post more carefully.

Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by eadler2

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@Jim2,
“Why do you believe the proxy record was not a good indicator of temperature after 1960?”
This was mainly a problem for northern tree rings. Experts suspect that it due to aerosals from industrial growth.

http://www.wsl.ch/info/mitarbeitende/cherubin/index_EN/download/D_ArrigoetalGlobPlanCh2008.pdf

“…Another possible cause of the divergence described briefly herein is ‘global dimming’, a phenomenon that has appeared, in recent decades,
to decrease the amount of solar radiation available for photosynthesis and plant growth on a large scale. It is theorized that the
dimming phenomenon should have a relatively greater impact on tree growth at higher northern latitudes, consistent with what has
been observed from the tree-ring record…”

Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

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eadler2, “Your defense of McIntyre’s process is lame. The whole purpose of selecting proxies is to select those that correlate reliably with the temperature record.”

Mcintyre used his hockeystick (HSI) index instead of the temperature record to illustrate you can pick out what you want from random noise. Nick Stokes has done the same thing on his blog, but seems to miss the humor involved with the HSI.

As for the divergence problem being known before Mann’s first paper, it was a fairly small group that was in the “know”. The splicing of temperature records to proxy data was also “known” by a select group but not documented vary well for the arm chair statisticians in fact it came as quite a surprise to some like Muller.

Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

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eadler2, If you watch the Muller video note the laughter in the background. HSI was supposed to be humorous in that dry Canadian way. Humor, laughter, laughing stock, hide the decline, “mike’s nature trick” get the point?

Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by JustinWonder

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nottawa rafter

“I criticized my wife for years for not using cash. It took her longer checking out when I was with her and others in front of me seemed to slow things down. But when my bank offered money for using my card, I switched. It is strange what a person will do for $5.40 per month.”

“…strange what a person will do for $5.40…”

In behavioral economics it is known as the power of free. We are predictably irrational and we will respond to the perception of a free lunch. My guess is that it is a successful adaptation that drives us to maximize EROEI. Google, Facebook, etc exploit this tendency, except their services are not really free – the currency is personal information, which they sell, if only in an indirect way.

Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by tonyb

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eadler2

(what happened to eadler1?)

Two questions.

WHY do you believe that a novel smoothed proxy such as tree rings have any merit in exhibiting a NH temperature record bearing in mind their considerable shortcomings as regards micro climates and that they only show a record of anything during the short growing season, and that is precipitation.

Also do you believe that boreholes (another popular proxy) have merit to indicate the general trend of temperatures?

tonyb

Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by Mark Silbert

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Fernando, I guess it’s really a matter of whether or not you believe that the accuracy/reliability of sub seasonal forecasts could be improved to the point where one could really use them cost effectively. My feeling is that you could spend a lot of money trying to improve these forecasts and see only marginal improvements. Been there, done that!

As to your point re. Shell and the Kulluk rig tow I think that there was plenty of useful data (historical and forecast) available to them on what to expect if they made the tow and I am certain that their Warranty Surveyor worked the weather forecast problem to death. My take away from the NYT article this Sunday on Kulluk is that the issues were more a matter of Shell’s internal risk management systems breaking down than the need for better weather forecasts.


Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by Mark Silbert

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Max, I agree that sub seasonal forecasts are probably a waste of time and money. I guess Judith is looking for business opportunities for her consulting company.

More power to her, but I don’t think this is the way to go.

Computer modelers will lead you down the garden path every time with their pretty graphics and elaborate promises. It took me a couple of years to learn this when I first started out.

Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by Howard

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TonyB makes a good point for the regular surf contests. However, the Big Wave contests (http://titansofmavericks.com/) which have wide windows and short callups may benefit from subseasonal predictions.

Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by Mark Silbert

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No problem Don. The huxterism of the modelers is one of my pet peeves.

Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by tonyb

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Howard

Excellent point.

AD hoc events would work but scheduled ones could cause problems if rescheduled unnecessarily due to a wrong forecast. Compensation looms!

tonyb

Comment on Week in review by k scott denison

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You may agree with that Max but I do not. In my world, individuals know what is best for them, not some group of “elites”.

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