Aang there is a difference between learning and making decisions, although decision making does involve what you have learned in the past.
Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by Joseph
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Comment on Week in review by jim2
Canada has shut down 18% of its drilling rigs in one week. There goes a chunk of Kanuck jobs.
1/6/15
OIL_________47.59
BRENT______50.65
NAT GAS____2.914
RBOB GAS__1.3452
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Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by R. Gates
Tony,
Unrelated, but you might be interested in the current SSW event going on.
The vortex has been disrupted (actually split) by this event, but one lobe has gone south, over the N. Atlantic, forming a large upper level high bringing upper level winds from the W or NW over your lovely country:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-64.57,67.36,315
Remember, sometimes the vortex splits or is displaced over Asia, bringing easterly to north easterly winds over N. Europe and very cold air, but not this time (yet). You can see the SSW event evolve here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml
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Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by Matthew R Marler
eadler2: McIntyre claimed that he could use non-centered PCA on a data set generated by RANDOM NOISE and get a hockey stick. The code he released shows that after the proxies were generated by random noise, he used an algorithm to select the100 data sets that most looked like hockey sticks out of the 10,000 randomly generated data sets, and then used non-centered principal components on them for his demonstration. So McIntyre’s claim seems to have been fraudulent.
Where is the fraudulence? McIntyre showed exactly what he claimed that he showed: that even in the absence of an actual signal, the procedure produced a hockey stick. In the statistical language of “p-values” and “statistical significance”, McIntyre showed that the hockey stick result had a very high p-value.
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Comment on Week in review by JustinWonder
Howard,
Thanks for the reply.
“Arguing…silly game.”
I have questions, driven by curiosity, about the science. I have much more life experience with human behavior and bias from my career in management. The intersection of bias, science, economics, and policy is very interesting to me.
“Mosher…read more, post less…”
If I were only interested in learning that would be good advice. Some people (M) appear to be successful despite their poor interpersonal skills. I enjoy the interactions on the blog.
We are surviving the winter ok, though I still have work to do. Those madrones really twist and lean as they grow in the shade of the redwoods – they can become a hazard. The madrone is my favorite tree – beautiful red bark, glossy leaves, and red berries. A flock of band-tailed pigeons feasting on the berries is quite a site!
A happy new year to you!
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Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by eadler2
@steven,
I guess you got me there. The studies I quoted didn’t look at the difference between social conservatives and libertarians. The libertarians do have higher IQ’s than the traditional liberals.
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Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by Matthew R Marler
Harold W:
The Romps paper is very interesting, thanks! [Non-paywalled version is here, by the way.]
thank you for the link.
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by John Vonderlin
Howard,
The wild coast south of Pillar Point, which Mavericks is just offshore of, is my exploration playground. Because many of the wildest spots we explore are accessible only at extreme low tides, often with cliff climbing involved, my group uses NOAA buoy information about approaching swells just as the Mavericks organizers do. While a subseasonal forecast might be of use for some contests under certain conditions, knowing an offshore buoy is experiencing 25 foot waves headed your way in a couple of days is generally all we need to know.
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Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by Matthew R Marler
Vaughan Pratt: <i>When the physics says CO2 should warm the environment, and one observes the environment warming with rising CO2, you need a more nuanced objection than simply that there is no data to support the physics. </i>
Well said. I referred to it without citing it explicitly or explicitly referencing the post.
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by RiHo08
On Anthony’s WUWT, Bob Tisdale is asking for predictions for El Niño conditions for 2015/2016. After reading his post, give your prediction and maybe why.
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Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by elisat
@eadler2,
“This was mainly a problem for northern tree rings. Experts suspect that it due to aerosals from industrial growth.”
The global dimming hypothesis is one of several causes that have been proposed for the “divergence problem”. Others include environmental stresses due to high temperatures and reduced moisture, other unknown factors, even sampling bias.
Isn’t the larger question whether we can trust the northern tree ring record to tell us anything reliable about temperatures in the pre-instrumentation era? Until we understand the cause and can say confidently that it only affects the post-1960 record, how much weight should we give to reconstructions that rely on the affected species?
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Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by Matthew R Marler
Vaughan Pratt: The term CAGW is a straw man invented by those protesting the conclusions of climate science. It cannot be found anywhere in the climate science literature unless you count literature protesting its conclusions.
Are you serious? Scientists have regularly been prediction CO2 caused warming-induced catastrophes since they stopped predicting catastrophes due to global cooling. Whether the alarmists themselves use the word “catastrophe” does not matter, it is no straw man to call them “catastrophists” or to refer to “catastrophic” AGW.
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by ordvic
I should have mentioned this earlier. Having grown up on skiis I was pretty aware of good years and bad. Short seasons vs long seasons and snow conditions are all important. I found this site for Mammoth:
“There are other sub-seasonal factors that will influence the winter season on smaller time scales that are not perdictive in the long term, but could have big impacts over short time frames and help shape the season as a whole”.
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by nickels
“to better understand and predict at the timescales of climate change, we need to work up ladder of the timescales, and figure out how to predict at the sub seasonal and seasonal time scales.”
Yes, yes and yes.
If there were actual $ to put to this research task it would be a pretty incredible problem. Actually tractable, at least to explore.
More modern solvers, aposteriori error analysis, innovative ensemble techniques.
More likely it will consist of throwing todays solvers together and figuring out how to view them as an ensemble, but whatever is learned will still be interesting.
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by nickels
I have this probabilistic thinking in common with Mosher. I try to convince other people its a great way to make decisions, especially those people I see who keep making bad decisions over and over….
@Wojick I think the way to verify probabilistic forecasts would rely on having enough of them run to verify the distribution of the outputs. Which, of course, would then be possible for these short runs…
Perhaps there is a more subtle point you are getting at? I missed it….
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Comment on Georgia politicians cool to global warming by eadler2
Capt. Dallas,
It is my understanding that experts on tree rings can often determine what has determined the growth – moisture, vs. temperature vs CO2. In modern times human caused aerosals have been a factor, as a result of dimming of sunlight. This is believed to be the cause of the divergence problem of the northern hemisphere tree rings. Up until 1960, the southern and northern tree rings tracked for 1000 years, and correlated with temperature since 1880’s. So the decision not to use the NH tree proxies since 1960 for calibrations was not simply an attempt to make things fit at any cost as some people would like to believe. There were valid scientific reasons to make the decision.
In addition the red curve in the Mann’s original plot is clearly labeled raw data, in his original paper to distinguish it from the reconstruction during the calibration period. There is no chicanery involved in this on the part of Mann.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/research/ONLINE-PREPRINTS/Millennium/mbh99.pdf
In the video Mueller is lambasting whoever used the Hockeystick plot in the IPCC report. .
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by nickels
@Fernando
Thats where good aposteriori error estimates (as probabilities) would be very useful.
I remember talking to the guys at NCEP about this, and the take away is that the usually had a pretty good idea based on the particular weather patterns and the divergence of the models on how ‘predictable’ a given regime was.
So, in an ideal R&D world, this capability would be developed further.
The model will tell you when it is unstable and when predictability is less/more. One just has to ask!
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by ordvic
There would also be the importance of snow pack in the Rockies as far as drought. Also precipitation in general regarding drought and water use.
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by nickels
@ordvic
Interesting chart. I find the Seasonal–Forecast skill: Med-High, Forecast detail:above/below pretty interesting. I would love to see a mathematical development of why this is the case. Or even a numerical study that gives some support to this….
I also dig this chart because I believe it, since it is not the product of academia but the product of a group that has some skin in the game.
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Comment on Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts by JD Ohio
I should mention that my brother has surfed for a long time and was in a surf related business for about 10 years. If the surf competition organizers had reliable forecasts of when large surf would be coming they would almost certainly change the dates to accommodate the large surf. For instance, the U.S. Open of surfing is held in Huntington Beach Calif in the summer when the surf is quite often poor. I am virtually certain that the organizers would move the contest a week or 2 later, if they were assured that they would have 10 foot waves instead of, let’s say, 3 foot waves.
JD
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