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Comment on Raw politics of climate change in the U.S. by Belinda


Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by Vaughan Pratt

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@PL: They think they can get the 99% of the world who couldn’t give a damn about CAGW to change their priorities. It is not going to happen.

I fully agree with Peter.

One of two things will have become apparent by December 2021.

1. The global temperature will have trended down since 2011. In this case it would appear highly unlikely that by 2100 there will be a serious global temperature problem. In short, “What, me worry?”

2. The global temperature will have trended up since 2011. In this case the pessimists who’ve been forecasting a high temperature in 2100 will IMO have been borne out. In this case that forecast will have come to pass because it will have become very clear that human nature has insufficient free will to steer itself away from any such outcome.

While it would take a medical miracle for me to observe the global mean surface temperature in 2100, speaking as one who was born exactly 365 days before Franklin Roosevelt’s demise I hope at least to be able to observe it in December 2021.

Until then I will have no occasion to quarrel with anyone’s forecasts on the matter other than those who cordially invite me to quarrel with them. No cordiality, no quarrel, capiche?

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by JustinWonder

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AK – “… Continents…configuration …”

You have something there. I understand some think the closing of the Isthmus of Panama triggered the Pleistocene ice ages by changing ocean currents. I would like to see more info on this. What is the effect of the configuration of continents on ocean currents and climate?

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by Peter Lang

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by thomaswfuller2

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Mr. Lang, I think the solar industry, Tesla’s battery plant, General Electric and a whole lotta others are in the process of proving you wrong as we converse.

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by thomaswfuller2

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Climate change is both scientific and political. We’re here arguing because, as John Matuszak said in the film North Dallas Forty, “Every time I want to talk about the game you say it’s a business and every time I want to talk about the business you say it’s a game.”

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by Rob Ellison

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Climate is a wild beast – as Wally said. Energy dynamics at TOA is not remotely predictable next week let alone after the next climate shift.

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by Jonathan Abbott

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Interesting Ragnaar.


Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by Rob Ellison

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Vaughan old buddy,

I know it’s all complex like and unpredictable – but are not the dice loaded against temps rising by 2021 with the current solar cycle peak?

Cheers

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by Peter Lang

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I don’t agree with you for many reasons (some of them in this post on January 13, 2015 at 8:11 pm here: http://canadianenergyissues.com/2015/01/07/fight-carbon-why-alara-should-become-the-leading-principle-of-electric-power-generation-infrastructure-planning/)

However, if you think I am wrong please persuade me by answering my questions:

1. What would be the cost of electricity from an electricity system for a major industrial economy that met all existing requirements for energy security and supply reliability and supplied 50% of the electricity from non-hydro renewables?

2. What would be the energy storage requirements (in GWh)? ( and for context what is the maximum and average daily energy consumption of that economy?).

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by thomaswfuller2

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Mr. Thomas, the Greenland ice loss is statistically equivalent to about nothing. I think it’s about 0.0007% of the total ice there. This year, ice actually outpaced melt on the Greenland ice cap, but calving took the increase away and left it a few Gt shy of the previous year.

But it’s an asterisk.

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by Peter Lang

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by Peter Davies

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VP again you demonstrate how people who disagree can do so without becoming disagreeable. I will be 81 in 2021 and look forward to having a glass of top quality red wine purchased by someone who currently is betting on global temperatures trending upwards.

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by mosomoso

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I think temps in 2021 will become apparent in 2021. However, temps in 2100 will only become apparent in 2100. 2021 temps cannot make 2100 temps become apparent.

Stay with me here! If you can’t know what temps will do between now and 2021, doesn’t seem fair to expect those poor 2021 guys to know about stuff 90 years into their future. Or do you actually know what the next six years will bring?

On the other hand, we are in a position to know a little about past climate…but that is a most unfashionable topic. People in 2021 and 2100 will be in a position to know about OUR climate. But they’ll have to be interested in actual climate change, unlike our climate change experts now, who greatly dislike the subject and only give it a disdainful prod and wish it away.

The people forecasting “melting Australia” yesterday were happy to pre-announce a new record max for Marble Bar. But it didn’t happen. The same people are far less eager to talk about the years (1905 and 1922) when the record was set. Why is that?

Marble Bar is a hot place, still holding the record for the world’s longest heatwave. If it was happening now – localised or not – it would be charged with significance. The Guardian and NYT would be in no doubt as to that significance. They would be in raptures quoting some scientist about how “while we cannot attribute any single event etc, nonetheless conditions in Marble Bar are consistent with models etc”.

But the Marble Bar heatwave – 160 sequential days above 100F – happened 1923-24.

So it doesn’t have any more significance than the record temps of 1906 and 1922.

Now why is that?

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by Jaime Jessop

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Excellent post by Rob Ellison. Climate change fanatics have hijacked the very real concerns of conservationists and environmentalists for far too long now, swallowing up absolutely vast sums of money and political and intellectual resources in the process, for little or no gain; even, it could be argued, to considerable detriment.
There should be no doubt whatsoever that certain key species in our ecosystems are facing extreme pressure from habitat destruction and exploitation. African rhino, elephant and big cat populations have been decimated in recent years by poachers and hunters. Asian tiger populations are dwindling alarmingly for the same reasons. Wolves and bears in the US and elsewhere continue to be persecuted. Polar bears, which according to the erstwhile claims of global warming fanatics, should now be extinct, or virtually so, due to no summer Arctic ice, are nevertheless still under pressure from hunting by North Americans and Russians intent on securing a ‘trophy’. These are just a few of the large key species facing the potential threat of extinction. Many smaller species are also in decline due mainly to habitat loss, but partly from the ‘cascade effect’ upon ecosystems following the removal or significant reduction in key species.
There is a lot that can be done to practically address these issues (none of them involving the politically motivated redistribution of wealth posited by AGW fanatics), but they have been sidelined by the Green Bandwagon which has attracted all manner of politically motivated, immoral, egocentric, opportunistic, vain, acquisitive, condescending, doom-mongering individuals over the years who have completely hogged the limelight.


Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by Peter Lang

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by Belinda

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‘temps in 2021 will become apparent in 2021, likewise temps
in 2100 will become apparent in 2100, Oh so droll moso but
true Lol..Humans jest ain’t good at predictin’.

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by Faustino

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Belinda, quite so, but in the CAGW case we are asked to have faith in long-range projections, a faith I fail to share.

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by KenW

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Nowhere on earth did Fukushima cause more damage than here in Germany. The press, always hysterical about something, went into a frenzy. The public was overwhelmed with Angst. The Chancellor panicked.

Now just hush up about those coal plants and maybe nobody ‘ll notice.

Comment on Planetary boundaries, tipping points and prophets of doom by John Pittman

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Joshua was correct in his statement of uncertainty and that both parties in the sense that “we forget” are speaking of a generic person. Most of the commenters did not address the two points. Some made erroneous claims as to the content of Joshua’s statement that had little or no merit.

Point one, uncertainty DOES cut both ways, and Point two, as a group humans believe that humans do tend to “forget” relative importance of matters. Though I am unsure that this is not a construct for the fact that humans have such differing opinions on so many items and their evaluation.

But the intent of point two is easily understood.

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