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Comment on U.S. greenhouse gas regulations by Bart R

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Considerate Thinker | March 29, 2012 at 5:02 am |

The science expressed? What science? Stossel science?

Stossel’s had dozens, perhaps hundreds, of interviews with illustrious and informed luminaries in many fields, science among them, over his very long career. Which he has failed to make much of an impression with: he appears formulaic in his questions, and frankly looks over his head when big words are used, while doing nothing to translate what is actually said for his audience. His conclusions are all foregone, and every interview wraps up into the same neat package.

A Stossel interview of last week may as well be a Stossel interview from the first week of his career, for all he’s developed in his thinking.

If his entire career of talking to people much smarter than himself has led him to learn nothing at all, how else are we to ascribe worth to watching it than, “not so far”.

Oh. You mean Roy Spencer. “The ultimate job killer”. The _ultimate_ job killer? Dr. Spencer’s credentials in economics to make such a claim notwithstanding (what’s that, he has none?), he produces no evidence for his claims; this is a wasted opportunity as it’d be nice to have someone talking to the Fox audience who could introduce them to the concept of statements based on fact.

Command and control regulations do generally hurt employment. This is a general effect of command and control regulation itself, not of specific measures. Standards regulations, however, generally help employment; more grocers employ more tellers when everyone trusts the scales are fair in the local marketplace. Does Roy Spencer know or understand this distinction? Does he have a mechanism to explain his prediction of job loss? Much less _ultimate_ job loss? I’m not saying it isn’t so. I’m saying being right for the wrong reason is worse than worthless.

So. Talk about the ideas. If you can.


Comment on Week in review 3/23/12 by Jim Cripwell

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Bart, you write “You demand impossible perfection. Your argument is hubris.”

Complete an utter garbage. The standard practice in signal to noise ratio calculations is to be able to distignuish a singal above the level of the background noise. The IPCC and the proponents of CAGW have always claimed that the CO2 signal is so strong that it overwhelms all the background noise.

So if the CO2 signal is so strong, then it ought to be detectable above the background noise. It is not. There is no CO2 signal in ANY temperature/time graph. This complete absence of any CO2 signal proves beyond all doubt that the hypothetical and meaningless estimations of the climate sensitivity for a doubling of CO2 are simply wrong. These hypothetical estimations are either IMPOSSIBLE to measure or have never been measured.

According to the time honored scientific method, if the observed data is different from the hypothetical data, we ALWAYS believe the observed data.

The climate senstitivity for a doubling of CO2 from current levels is proved to be indistinguishable from zero. Period.

Comment on U.S. greenhouse gas regulations by Paul S

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The variability to which you’re referring will exist in the future too. Roughly speaking the colder parts of the future will be 2C warmer than the cold pre-industrial era; the warmer parts of the future will be 2C warmer than the warm pre-industrial era.

Comment on NRC’s artless untruths on climate change and food security by Tom

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For only a trillion dollars today, the UN promises to feed the starving masses on corn yet to be grown on the planet Pandora, sometime soon. More ‘living-room’, for the taxpayers too..

Comment on Republican(?) brain by cwon14

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There is a whole side topic of how liberals really are retrogrades and luddites. AGW is essentially a statist orthodox solution very similar to worshipping failed New Deal economics (it failed in the 30′s as well).

Keynes died depressed by his policy failures and the state of English debt ratio in what 1946? Has western economic dogma “progressed” since that time in the hand of these people who worship IPCC central planning?

They’re banking on windmills and rationing as a policy solution? They can call this “progressive” with a straight face? It’s a nostalgia movement as a rule. Has-beens.

Comment on Week in review 3/23/12 by Jim D

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WHT, my CO2 temperature dependence comes from the constant in Wikipedia under Henry’s Law which is 2400 K. This gives a doubling for a 25 degree increase.

Comment on Letter to the dragon slayers by Doug Cotton

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Jeff Condon attempted to rebut my paper, then deleted my response of which I have kept a screen capture. This is typical of the suppression which is common among those battling to support the AGW conjecture.

Author’s response

There is absolutely no need to present equations …

(a) because the document Reference [3] approaches the topic of one-way heat transfer with ample computations

(b) because I have clearly explained in words the very obvious fact that the area between the two Planck curves is the difference in the areas under the curves, because Wien’s Displacement Law confirms that the curve for the cooler body is fully contained within that for the warmer body. This is supported with a graphic and link regarding WDL.

Hence I am obviously saying that the standard equations for radiation between two plates (and similar) still apply. Thus the standard equations for heat transfer also apply. I state that such equations give the correct result in Section 4 which is about quantification in such instances. There is absolutely no need to reiterate standard equation of physics here, but I do never-the-less provide a link (Ref [4]) to an article containing such computations involving the difference of the two Stefan-Boltzmann calculations for the two temperatures involved. This is ample coverage of all the computations that are relevant.

The statement “Thus radiation from a cooler atmosphere cannot transfer thermal energy to a warmer surface” is doing nothing more nor less than applying the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Any contrary statement, or implied error, is in fact, in itself, contradicting standard physics.

Engineering applications neither prove nor disprove either hypothesis (one way or two way heat transfer) for the very reason that the mathematical computations give the same result for each hypothesis. (I remind you, the area between the curves = the difference in the areas under the curves.) So, yes, science has already “empirically verified” what is in my hypothesis, just as much as it has in the conjecture made by the early physicists over a hundred years ago, that there “must” be a two-way heat transfer. This was their best guess at the time, perhaps because they had no concept of the resonating and scattering process proven computationally by Claes Johnson, a professor of applied mathematics which is a discipline closely related to physics.

In no way have I undermined “the foundation of literally millions of functioning devices” because I have not come up with anything different in terms of computational results relating to heat transfer, either in quantity or direction.

“How often a photon is absorbed by a solar cell is very well quantified and is based on the material in question”

Well, yes it may be “very well quantified” but, because there has been a philosophy that absorption is a fixed proportion, regardless of the temperature of either source or target, all measurements have been carried out with incident solar radiation or some other light source equivalent to a warmer source of spontaneous radiation. Once again, a reference [10] is provided which explains the methodology. Furthermore, my reading on this particular issue has subsequently confirmed that absorptivity does in fact vary even by a full order of magnitude at different temperatures. More experiments are planned which are expected to confirm these facts.

It would seem that the reviewer has read little more than half the paper, as no comment is made on the content of the Appendix.

If he finds no counter argument to items such as Q.1, Q.2, Q.3 and Q.7 then he would appear to be accepting the conclusions of the body of the paper, regardless of his criticism thereof. For example, in Q.1, I demonstrate that there is no evidence of any anthropogenic effect showing in the temperature records. In Q.3 I discuss the stabilising effect of the “thermal inertia” in the massive quantity of sub-surface thermal energy, right down to the Earth’s core. The conclusion is spelled out at the end of Q.7 namely “This leaves nothing but the resonant scattering hypothesis to explain reality and such a hypothesis negates a key assumption which is fundamental for there to be any validity in the Anthropogenic Global Warming conjecture”

The reviewer has criticised me for not quoting what are standard equations anyway, but he has not addressed nearly half the paper, nor quoted even one sentence therein which he has been able to specifically refute using standard physics.

His hand-waving comments bear no substance, display complete misunderstanding and are lacking in any supportive evidence, either documented as theory, or as empirical evidence, that is contrary to any statement in the paper.

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Comment on Republican(?) brain by Steven Mosher

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cwon, like I said, nobody believes that you believe what you write.
and you just proved it.


Comment on Republican(?) brain by Steven Mosher

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cwon. Nobody believes that you believe a single word you write. This false flag act is getting old. give it up

Comment on Republican(?) brain by Steven Mosher

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more flase flag stuff cwon. you are on a roll. Show your true colors. come on, prove to us that you believe what you write and tat your just not a plot to make conservatives look really stupid

Comment on Republican(?) brain by Steven Mosher

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but cwon, you are just a liberal posing as a conservative. nice try

Comment on Republican(?) brain by anon

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I regret that I have come to a very similar conclusion.

Comment on Republican(?) brain by GaryM

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The only thing scientists understand less than they do the climate, is the working of the human brain. In both cases, we know more than we ever have before. And in both, we don’t even have a clue how they really work.

Progressive pseudo scientists do a study to determine why conservatives aren’t progressive, and they shockingly find that progressives like themselves are more intelligent, more open minded, less risk adverse, and just generally better people.

I’ll alert the media.

Comment on Republican(?) brain by NW

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I do think ideology has effects on people’s beliefs about the way the world works, but I think Mooney’s view of the mechanics is pretty outrageous and silly. It’s fairly simple to give both game-theoretic and cognitive accounts of why ideology and belief are linked, without indulging in the kind of trash-talk explanation Mooney gives.

I have a paper about this kind of thing:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2006.00042.x/abstract

That version is paywalled. Here is a link to an older version in working paper form:

http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp238.pdf

Andrew and I would have also liked to do this in a “mirror image ideological relationship” situation. Say for instance, doing a classroom experimental demonstration of market failure in sociology classrooms, with sociologists conducting the in-class demonstrations, since sociologists have the opposite ideological reputation of economists (at least in the US). It would be helpful for better sorting out the various potential explanations we talk about at the end of the paper.

This was an unusual project for me–not my usual area of research.

Comment on Republican(?) brain by Evan Thomas

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I’m afraid this discussion is US centred as many are (Your Presidents wait until they are elected before realising that the world does not begin at the coasts of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans). Your posters need to look at the rest of the English-speaking world before pontificating. Maggie Thatcher, a ‘Conservative’ made many overdue changes in the UK. In Australia John Howard did likewise. However, Downunder it is true that far more Coalition i.e. Lberal/National voters (which are our ‘conservatives’) are strongly and more numerously opposed to the Carbon Tax than are the left leaning voters of the Labor Party which more or less runs our Federal government.
Cheers from a slowly drying out sydney, but still very wet inland.


Comment on Republican(?) brain by anon

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According to the wikipedia, Chris Mooney has absolutely no college level education in science, including writing a scientific paper, including any laboratory or experimental science, nothing.

His post college experience is 100% as a journalist.

I am certain that journalists can receive excellent on the job training, and he is certainly in a rarefied atmosphere that enables him to literally speak to our best and brightest.

But really?

How does this guy advance so far as to become AGU board member while being employed at one partisan liberal journal after another?

Those of you that read him, when he writes on science, not on political topics, does he seem as though he understands the underlying science?

Anyway, I like to believe I am a progressive guy with college and post graduate work in science and engineering.

I think Mooney is loony.

Comment on Republican(?) brain by cwon14

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I get the irony as well. Perhaps the reason for the role reversal was the institutionalization of the New Deal and post WWII orthodox which is of course in decline and decay. While it morfed for the Romans in the final stages what was left became a very similar nostalgia political culture of maintaining past authority. It’s about bitter clinging to authority, they haven’t has a new idea in a century.

These are waning days for academic authority and central planning credit funding. It’s the next shoe to be dropped and the anger and rage is obvious in areas of special excess like climate funding. Mooney tells them what they want to hear, similar to the NY Times. They are very close to the unsustainable tipping point and the next election is very much on their minds. This is very much like 1980 and they are facing 20 years + of social rejection ahead of them if it goes wrong in November. It might happen even if Obama squeeks by. In fact, it’s inevitable because it’s a culture of failure that is in charge at the moment. They needed the cap and tax money and they failed to get it, it’s just a matter of time. 2:28, Sollotzo “I missed my chance”;

They know how the scene ends as well. The AGW movement is close to done and so are the Obama years. Both will be remembered as social digression born of fear, decline and social insecurity.

Comment on Republican(?) brain by cwon14

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Chris Mooney is a pretty average and mainstream AGW advocate in the AGW community.

Not far form the center of political gravity of many here.

Comment on Republican(?) brain by jim

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There is an asymmetry in the political dichotomy that that most leftists, like Mooney, will never understand. It is the fact that many, maybe even most, Republicans (Mooney’s america-speak for conservatives) were born as, and inculcated in youth as, and grew-up as leftists. This majority of the presently conservative believers, drifted from leftist utilitarianism to conservationism as they learned lessons from the real life. What Mooney can’t see is that most of the people that he despises once had the same utopian, authoritarian ideas as he presently has, but they repudiated those ideas as they matured. That these conservatives do not accept Mooney’s ideas is not that they’re too ignorant to understand Mooney’s arguments; it is that they understand much too well the bad consequence that result from the well intentioned totalitarianism that Mooney argues for.

This is an intellectual asymmetry; it is much harder for a leftest to comprehend an argument for idea he never believed in than it is for a rightest to comprehend an argument for an idea he once believed in but rejected after experience.

Comment on Republican(?) brain by Scott

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Sad that the climate debate degenerated into name calling by scientists of deniers or skeptics positions instead of logical cool discussions. Thanks to JCurry for working to express a rational discussion of the complex issue and providing a forum and links to information. Complex models that truncate data use years ago (1980 or 1998) and can’t model actual measurements over the last 10 years don’t prove the issues settled. Settled is not a scientific term anyway. Einstein theory was not voted in 1905 but was pretty much accepted in the 1930′s.

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