Oh I am sorry, LS is lower stratosphere I think you use TLS, but I have converted it to energy anomaly. 60 month correlation is just a sequential correlation of SS”E” or sea surface energy anomaly with LS and the OLR outgoing long wave radiation lagged by 27 months. I used 211.5K as the average LS temperature to produce the energy anomaly. The conversions don’t effect the correlation, but they provide an interesting picture of how tight the energy range is limited.
Comment on On determination of tropical feedbacks by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2
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Comment on Week in review by John Smith (it's my real name)
Tonyb
you mentioned that you’ve seen discrepancies in the CET data from the Met office, no?
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Comment on On determination of tropical feedbacks by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2
Greg, “Yes, this is why false attribution is so easy and 30 years of simplistic “linear trends” and ignorant regression fitting has not helped one bit.”
btw, one of the reasons I like sequential correlations is they are a quick and easy test with just a dumb spread sheet. You need to find something more mainstream afterwards, but it is a neat quick and dirty test.
‘
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Comment on Week in review by Matthew R Marler
Jim D, here is what Nic Lewis said about the calculation of deltaF:
The ΔF values were taken from Forster et al (2013)[v]. For each model, historical/RCP scenario time series for ΔF were diagnosed by Forster et al using an equation of the form:
. ΔF = α ΔT + ΔN (4)
where ΔT and ΔN are the model-simulated GMST and TOA radiative imbalance respectively, and α is the model feedback parameter, diagnosed in the same paper.
and that leads to: ΔT = (α ΔT+ ΔN ) / ρ + ε (5)
Are you saying that he is wrong?
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Comment on On determination of tropical feedbacks by Aussie
Reblogged this on <a href="https://aboutpopulationandclimate.wordpress.com/2015/02/08/on-determination-of-tropical-feedbacks/" rel="nofollow">Against the Climate Change Agenda</a> and commented:
An excellent article.... and it actually makes sense to this non-science person.
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Comment on Week in review by Tonyb
John
Yes, I noticed that my 2007 printed copy of CET was different to the latest version. I posted about it here and Vuk replied. To hIs credit he had realised the met office were not calculating CET properly and had informed them.
To their credit they had subsequently changed their calculations.
I will see if I can find the part of the thread that detailed all this.
Tonyb
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Comment on Questioning the robustness of the climate modeling paradigm by Aussie
Reblogged this on <a href="https://aboutpopulationandclimate.wordpress.com/2015/02/08/questioning-the-robustness-of-the-climate-modeling-paradigm/" rel="nofollow">Against the Climate Change Agenda</a> and commented:
An interesting thesis. Well done.
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Comment on Week in review by jim2
Yep. The thing is, the US does have a poor history WRT blacks. Pathetic even.
But, that is no excuse to let ISIS run free. The King of Jordan is leading from the front – Obama should be right behind him, but I’m not holding my breath.
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Comment on On determination of tropical feedbacks by Greg Goodman
From Self et al (ref 1 of the article) “…. approximately 180 days after the eruption and still remained an order of magnitude higher than ambient levels for at least 2 years after the eruption. Such a great enhancement in aerosol mass and surface area due to the eruption produced significant variations of atmospheric optical properties and ozone abundance.”
Mike Flynn: “Your lack of meaningful response provides me with no reason to doubt that I was right.”
Your lack of ability to read even the first reference in the reference list of the article leaves you with the spurious assumption that you are always right and that it is the duty of others to prove this is not the case.
Next time, read first, shoot ( from the mouth ) later.
live long and prosper ;)
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Comment on Week in review by Rob Ellison
Deafness.
Long-term seizures, coma, lowered consciousness.
Permanent brain damage.
Because these problems occur so rarely, we can’t be sure whether they are caused by the vaccine or not.
Yeah – it might have happened anyway – coincidental. I quoted from the CDC as an authoritative source – saying the same thing as what’s his name is reported to have said. That severe reactions have been associated with the MMR vaccine. There are other vaccines in which the association with severe reactions are more clear cut. But let’s concentrate on MMR – because it’s babies and that’s where the concern is.
It was simply a silly slur from Joshua against a political class he has this is his usual cultural warrior of the left way. One based this time on the supposed lack of science in questioning vaccines – even in the most responsible way possible.
Did I see Michael chiming in with his medical opinion about fever as well?
The reality of vaccines seems quite as what’s his name is reported to have said. Somehow the CDC saying there is an association – but it might have been coincidental – morphs in Joshua’s world view into another proof of the mental incompetence of conservatives.
I don’t read blogs much – but I have been looking at SoD a little recently. Perhaps not surprisingly – there are many familiar names to be found. Including Joshua. It seems his content is much the same as here. Mostly cheap snipes at Judy’s intellectual perfidy.
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Comment on Week in review by Tonyb
John
Here is the link that led to he CET discussion.
I emailed the met office and they confirmed the changes although they did not admit it was Vuk that had alerted them.
Most of the changes were to warm the past. I noticed the changes as I had written a couple of Years ago that 2011(?) and the first year in the record 1659 were identical in temperature. The adjustment has now made 1659 slightly warmer.
Tonyb
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Comment on Week in review by Tonyb
Jim2
I think the response to Isis has been very poor. It has also been very poor to Crimea and to the fanatics in Nigeria.
Obviously the worlds policeman has given up the role and the rest of the west are fLoundering. We should all be ashamed at our response as evil will grow unless challenged and there is growing evil/ barbarism and a seeming willingness to allow countries like Russia to push the envelope.
Tonyb
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Comment on Week in review by Rob Ellison
Finally, Lorenz’s theory of the atmosphere (and ocean) as a chaotic system raises fundamental, but unanswered questions about how much the uncertainties in climate-change projections can be reduced. In 1969, Lorenz [30] wrote: ‘Perhaps we can visualize the day when all of the relevant physical principles will be perfectly known. It may then still not be possible to express these principles as mathematical equations which can be solved by digital computers. We may believe, for example, that the motion of the unsaturated portion of the atmosphere is governed by the Navier–Stokes equations, but to use these equations properly we should have to describe each turbulent eddy—a task far beyond the capacity of the largest computer. We must therefore express the pertinent statistical properties of turbulent eddies as functions of the larger-scale motions. We do not yet know how to do this, nor have we proven that the desired functions exist’. Thirty years later, this problem remains unsolved, and may possibly be unsolvable.
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1956/4751
The problem of the representation of the physics of the system – at both fine and broad scale – is quite different to the problem of irreducible imprecision. The latter produces a family of divergent solutions form arbitrarily close starting points.
Whatever model you start with they evolve chaotically. .
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Comment on On determination of tropical feedbacks by David in TX
Not to pile on with even more confounding factors but…
http://oceanbites.org/volcanic-ash-fertilizer-for-the-ocean/
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/0702_planktoncloud.html
Possible significant climate change due to biological response of phytoplankton to iron/manganese in volcanic ash. Could be some long complex delays.
Dig it. Volcano both fertilizes ocean with trace nutritents that cause algae bloom (first article) and simultaneously reduce ozone which raises UV reaching the ocean. Phytoplankton respond to high UV exposure by releasing a chemical which ends up producing more nucleation points in the atmosphere causing more cloud formation which then reduces UV exposure (second article).
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Comment on Week in review by Jim D
He missed that dT and dN contain canceling high-frequency components because dF, by definition, is only low-frequency forcing determined from the slow part of the temperature change over longer periods.
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Comment on Week in review by Danny Thomas
Capt. Dallas and Jim D, et al.
This just posted on WUWT: http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2015/marotzke-forster-response/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=marotzke-forster-response
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Comment on Week in review by Jim D
Danny, thanks, I was waiting for their response to all this.
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Comment on Week in review by Lucifer
Sad thing, the comedians were on this:
http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/g1lev1/an-outbreak-of-liberal-idiocy
Outbreaks in those right wing enclaves of California, New York, and Oregon.
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Comment on Week in review by Danny Thomas
Joshua,
Thinking about your previous commentary Re: risk. In discussion with another (younger than I) I recalled this:
I lived in the 60’s when we practiced sitting in school hallways with our legs crossed (Indian/Native style) and hands behind our necks in case “the bomb” was dropped. My sisters (older) sat under thier desks. We had “civil defense” shelters in which to hide.
I lived in the 60’s/70’s in tornado country where we did the same kinds of drills.
I lived in the 70’s and was told about the coming “ice age”.
So living now with “catastrophe” coming due to global warming leads me to be more conservative and less alarmed. And I think about how many others are just like me. These, plus many just before me (and just after me) went to war. My father served in WWII and his folks came up right after “the war to end all wars”. Now this is not to challenge you as I have no idea of your age and what you’ve actually lived through. This is only to provide perspective so you can grasp why others may not respond as you do. Food for thought.
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Comment on Week in review by jim2
If you reduce CO2 you could trip a tipping point. If you increase CO2 you could trip a tipping point. If you keep CO2 the same, you could hit a tipping point. Let’s create cheap energy – it’s all the same anyway.
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