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Comment on Open thread by EdG

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Indeed. They pose this comment:

“Despite this, it isn’t difficult to find stakeholder organizations providing seemingly contradictory information about climate change and whether it is happening at all.”

The “this” being the thoroughly debunked 97% Big Lie.

Yes, there certainly is “contradictory information” about climate change. No need to say “seemingly” unless one wants to obscure this point.

But, no, there is no question about whether “climate change” is “happening at all.” Change is the only constant, in climate and everything else. So this is just a phoney strawman, again. If they were even trying to be clear they would have said AGW instead of climate change, and addressed the key question of ‘how much’ not “at all.”

But, as with any political project, clarity is not their objective. Just the opposite.


Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by DocMartyn

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“It’s pretty simple adjustments don’t change the record in any significant way”

That is what one would expect if saw toothed stations were included in the mix, if your algorithm can’t pick them out.
The simple test is to use synthetic data, whereby a know fraction of stations have the saw toothed quality we suspect and the others have sine-waves.
Bless the series with random breaks and run BEST. If you reconstruct the sinewave, kudos, you will have demonstrated to the cynics that our intuition is wrong and I will perform a public sackcloth and ashes routine for having doubted your sagacity, However, until that time I will place your opinion alongside the Isle of White Ferry.

Comment on Open thread by JustinWonder

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Heads, they win, tails, we lose.

Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by A C Osborn

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Well Well, you do know how to bend the truth and make the most of it.
I just looked up BEST UHI and what do you know it goes directly to this study.

http://scitechnol.com/2327-4581/2327-4581-1-104.pdf

And I quote
“The effect of urban heating on estimates of global average
land surface temperature is studied by applying an urban-rural
classification based on MODIS satellite data to the Berkeley
Earth temperature dataset compilation of 36,869 sites from 15
different publicly available sources.”

So it is not lights but brightness or colour. That is a really big deal.

Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by Matthew R Marler

Comment on Open thread by Tonyb

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Don

At the very outset I guided Danny towards the history of global warming by weart and a few other warmist books so he has had a fair introduction to both sides of the debate

Hopefully he will graduate to Hubert lamb, probably the greatest historical climatologist ever and who would be ashamed and bemused as to what has passed for climate science since he left CRU.

Tonyb

Comment on Open thread by curryja

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The key issue is whether humans are dominating the warming, that is where there is no 97% consensus

Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by waltheof

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Mr Mosher

As far as I am concerned you are the most informative and accurate contributor to these forums.
This may already have been answered so forgive me for my all too basic understanding of the mechanisms of achieving a temperature set.
It seems to me that you are suggesting that the temperature sets do not change significantly as a result of homogenisation.
But shouldn’t homgenisation work to warm the past and cool the present due to UHI?
To be clear I understand the challenge to a degree and accept homogenisation is necessary and am not focussed at all on individual stations rather as a total average.


Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by stan

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Politifact has a well-deserved reputation for being politically-slanted. Not worth the pixels wasted.

Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by Matthew R Marler

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A C Osborne: However what you are actually doing is “Changing the Reality” of what those people and places actually experienced.
You are producing a “False Reality” which is destroying the very thing that Science is supposed to be about ie Describing Reality as we Know it.

Despite everyone’s best efforts, the data have random variation, where “random variation” is the variation that is not reproducible and not predictable. If you knew for a fact that a certain station never had any random variation in it at all, or that some did, or that all did, you would not adjust them. The problem is, all of them have random variation. Some of the apparent difference between two sites was caused by random processes; at the same time, some random processes, like unrecorded changes in jet streams, have produced correlations in the data of recording instruments separated by long differences. So what are you going to do: ignore the data? Deny the existence of random variation, either in all cases or some cases? Ignore the correlations caused by random events (or assert that they can’t occur or can’t be random)? And having made a bunch of decisions or claims like that, how are you going to investigate whether you have come up with accurate inferences about what is not in fact absolutely known?

If you know for a fact that a Paraguay station is perfectly accurate, you can adjust the algorithm so that it is not adjusted, but can be used in adjusting other stations known to be in error. But how do you know that? The BEST team reported the algorithm in great detail; and they reported the results of the 1/8 jackknifing procedure that shows that, over the full data set, their procedure does not produce a “false reality” that destroys the very thing they are supposed to be about. But back to a question: How can you tell that they have produced a “false reality” that is actually less accurate than any “reality” produced without a complex statistical procedure, such as accepting every station at face value? Or a procedure of willy-nilly selecting some for averaging, some for adjusting, some for treating idiosyncratically?

Comment on Open thread by HR

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Just a little nugget of info, but I thought it was interested. it was pointed out in a comment on Ed Hawkins blog. The heat content of the sub-polar atlantic gyre has collapsed over the past year or so. Look pretty dramatic, any thoughts on the consequences?

Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by Matthew R Marler

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A C Osborn: so I made a mistake having read that somewhere,

When you make a mistake, admit it, apologize, grind your teeth and suffer in silence. We all make them.

I apologize for misspelling your name “Osborne”.

Comment on Open thread by A. Voip

Comment on Open thread by Danny Thomas

Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by Tonyb

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Sou at hot whopper has posted an article linking to half a dozen items refuting the deliberate cooling theme.

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/02/paul-homewood-and-christopher-booker.html#more

Worth reading. Includes a link to a real climate item and one by victor.

I think homewood and booker have likely cherry picked to prove their point but whether there are additional cases other than ad hoc ones like Paraguay to reinforce their point I can’t say.

Tonyb


Comment on Open thread by catweazle666

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Look at the relative concentration of CO2 over the oceans – most especially the Pacific, where the majority of the ocean warming is alleged to have taken place.

It doesn’t look like a CO2 sink to me. rather the opposite, in fact.

Curious that with respect to ocean acidification Dalton’s law is always churned out, but nobody mentions Henry’s law, which implies that as the ocean warms, dissolved gasses will be released.

But hey, I’m only a retired engineer (originally chemical), so what would I know about gas/liquid behaviour or thermodynamics?

Comment on Open thread by Tonyb

Comment on Open thread by KenW

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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2D4joJF5xo" rel="nofollow">Nena</a>

Comment on Open thread by Craig Loehle

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I think a graph of the business climate in California would be steeply down…

Comment on Open thread by nottawa rafter

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Do you know the agency that produces the data?

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