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Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by nutso fasst


Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by Rud Istvan

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Please provide evidence/references for your assertion. Raw? Adjusted? Adjusted by whom, BEST with regional expectations that ( per a previous comment of yours on a previous thread) are designed to reduce field expection error, not reproduce actual local temperatures? So you assert here your algorithm is working as designed to reduce regional variation. Except that isn’t right either (by your own previous rebuttal to my comments on BEST station 166900) simce does not produce an actual temperature anywhere. So which is it? This comment is wrong, or your previous theead comment was wrong? And that darned internet thingy allows all denizens to go find and check both for themselves. And those darned backed up hard drive thingys allows snapshots of both.

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by rls

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Captain

What’s your take on the Rosenthal et al study? It is a study of deeper ocean temperatures using MG/CA ratios of a subsurface planktonic foraminifer that calcify at 75-100 meters depth. The authors conclude that that the temperatures at that depth in the tropical pacific are lower today than during the MWP and also that those waters are sourced from the southern pacific and northern pacific, and the arctic, hence the entire pacific intermediate water temperature (IWT) is lower today than during the MWP. They have some in depth discussion about OHC and ocean circulation that loses me but may be an explanation regarding water circulation and a homogenous IWT.

Regards,

Richard

PS: May have some time to kill this August in FL. Hauling costumes to Cape Canaveral for my granddaughter’s dance studio. They will be performing for a cruise line for a week and I’ll be looking for something to do.

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by nottawa rafter

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Fan

Don’t you know how the game is played? In a couple of years, the study by Ms Hays , et al will be superceded by some other superstars of the week and the new heroes will trash her work and find that it is worse than we thought. Why publish if you can’t end with that obligatory and headline grabber.

I thought you would have caught on by now.

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by Rud Istvan

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Thanks misthreaded in haste to start dinner. See above, and again thanks.

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by rls

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Think this might adjust the mannians?

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by ordvic

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by tonyb

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ordvic

interesting. As I say I am ambivalent as to whether data has been deliberately tampered with and would want to see more examples than those that have come to light so far.

An investigation of the nature you mention might help in clarifying the situation as it will be high profile and presumably be understandable to the layman. or will it rapidly become a partisan bun fight?
tonyb


Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by ordvic

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Yeah, I too am, as you say, ambivalent. Republicans also have a knack of shooting themselves in the foot.

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by Scott

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Bound to be a fight. Can a study team be found to honestly delve into the temperature issues. Wagman group faced major accusations to discredit them and smears from the team. Maybe Dr Steve Koonin and the team from the APS get presentations from the various groups. Still no closure on the APS review of a year ago.
Scott

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by nottawa rafter

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Tony

Given the adjustments, adjustment of the adjustments, estimates and other mathematical gyrations not to speak of the equations that could fill the Library of Congress, I am not sure anyone is in a position to criticize your work.

They certainly can feel self satisfied and comfortable with their “superior” work, but anyone with a little circumspection knows the true uncertainty, not the kind from Statistics 202, but the kind derived from watching all the sure things fall on their face, and watching the billion to one shots happen all to frequently, they will know the uncertainty about what actually has happened, is to large as to be incalculable.

There is way too much hubris and smugness in the establishment.

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by tonyb

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Scott

We saw with Mosh’s thread a few days ago how difficult it is to put over the technical reasons for adjustments. So whether a group of partisan questioners will ever extract anything meaningful from a grouping of scientists who are not always able to put their data over in a clear fashion remains to be seen.

More to the point will anyone ever accept the findings if it doesn’t match their preconceptions??

tonyb

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

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rls, “It is a study of deeper ocean temperatures using MG/CA ratios of a subsurface planktonic foraminifer that calcify at 75-100 meters depth.”

The area they are in probably has the best field accuracy for Mg/Ca so I suspect their work is better than average due to location. Surface and Sub-surface proxies are a bit difficult because the “bugs” are biased toward survival. If you have hot calm conditions there is a greater likelihood of an unusual thermocline forming, but the general temperature trend should be close to the same. Since they use Mg/Ca that is why I gravitated towards them. Uk’37 can have a large field error >2C due to current variations and the depth ranges the bugs like.

As far as representing the entire Pacific IMW I would have to consider a bit more uncertainty, but it should represent general climate tendencies rather well.

August in South Florida should be a nice balmy 92F with a feels like 105+ :) One of the few times of the year is try to find anvil head cloud air conditioners.

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by tonyb

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nottawa rafter

When the answer relies on novel proxies and highly complex statistical interpretations it is difficult to see why the climate establishment is so certain they have a thorough grasp of the climate story, whether that is the historic temperature record or why the climate behaves as it does.

tonyb

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by Scott

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tonyb
thanks for everything you do. The time of obs TOBS changes sure could be identified along with the original readings. Then any station moves or technical changes to move stations out of jet blast at airports or urban heat island impacts. But always provide the original measurements on the forms from NOAA. Data error bars would be easily to 0.5C which would show lots of hotest year ties.

thanks again for your work and courtesy.
Scott


Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by Rud Istvan

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Kim, Wyatt and Curry’s stadium wave paper is a partial NH start. I think we have much to learn about our blue planet’s oceans. Regards.

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by John Smith (it's my real name)

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Rud
bit of an issue with your 25 year life expectancy statement
it is my understanding is that modern life exp. average has increased largely due to childhood mortality improvements
the main driver beyond lower modern birth rates
if one made it to adulthood in the old days odds went up
I think one could find many examples of 70 yr life spans during the time covered by CET
and LIA
ancients too
once heard main honcho at JHU School of Public Health state that modern medicine only accounts for about 3% of modern life expectancy increase

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by Rud Istvan

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Mosomoso, I like this reference. Few realize how much windborne dust fertilizes the oceans, where iron is apparently the planktonic limiting nutrient, with plankton responsible for about 50% of biomass synthesis. Now, that affects CO2 sequestration some. But it affects ocean heating from incoming SLR (sunlight) a LOT. After all, the energy sequestered by photosynthesis is not available to heat either the ocean or the armosphere. In the terrestrial tropics, this is experimentally at least 1%. So mybe same or more in the oceans. I knowmod no studies…See Gaia’s Limits. Now that wnwrgy conversion is greater than the supposed TOA radiation imbalance (0.6 to 250 or some such).
We forgot the planet is alive!

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by John Smith (it's my real name)

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should add ‘after childhood’

Comment on The Intermittent Little Ice Age by Matthew R Marler

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Salvatore del Prete: Therefore the more correct interpretation of The Little Ice Age should be random climate fluctuation superimposed upon an overall lower mean temperature during the period of time The Little Ice Age took place, that being 1300ad-1850ad.

The authors say that if there was a “Little Ice Age” onset of the sort commonly described, then it must have occurred before their temperature series were started, so they can not rule it out.

“Stationary throughout the recorded interval up to about the end of the 19th century” is a reasonable summary of the AOAS paper and TonyB’s essay. Neither one of them can identify an end of the Medieval Warm Period, or an identifiable subinterval of the interval between the Medieval Warm Period and the “Modern Warm Period” that is a distinct “Little Ice Age”..

I don’t disagree with your “more correct” interpretation, but I don’t think it disagrees with what Kelly an O’Grada wrote.

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