Joshua
‘A strong hypothesis should include speculation about what to expect would happen if it holds, as well as what to expect would not happen.”
Ya, A couple of examples. When we were testing the effectiveness of
stealth designs say x sq meters versus 1/10th x, we started the test with an expectation: smaller will be better. And to do it right you even had to have an estimate of how much better to plan the test. you wanted a test that had Power given the expected effect size.
With UHI for example I had read everything skeptics wrote. UHI in a city is 1C, 2C, 3C more! And so one expected that if you divided stations
in rural and urban you would see a difference.
So you try seperating by population. and you find no clear effect
hmm
so you change the defination of urban and use nightlights. you expect a difference. no difference.
so you change the definition of Impervious surface area. no difference
so you change the definition of urbaan built areas.. no difference
so you change it to a combination of many features… no difference.
To people on the outside, they just think try something different. ty this try that. and you want to know at what point will they give up their belief that there is a detectable difference.
If they have to do the work.. if they have to bet their belief.. my observation is they give up their beliefs earlier.
So, you give folks the tools encourage them to do the work themselves.
because formulating and testing your ideas and failing is a great teacher.
