How you find heat that is wandering away in outer space? What Trenberth said was it’s a travesty that the monitoring system of the earth was not up to tracking energy flows. They built a buoy array for Josh Willis; they built a satellite for Graeme Stephens. They didn’t wast their time building spaceships so cops could chase down and arrest the fugitive heat.
Comment on The albedo of Earth by JCH
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by Danny Thomas
Steven,
My apparently poorly made point was that since it seems our good old mother earth apparently wants to be in a relative state of equillibrium and does not recognize from where changes originate but only that a change exists is she therefore attempting to offset those changes in this case by an increase in ice (which the models did not project)? (Hoping this is a better presentation of my thought).
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by Danny Thomas
JCH,
You sound skeptical! :)
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by Lucifer
Well, as identified by the paper, the units of action of albedo are clouds.
And the units of action of clouds are largely dynamic surface polar air masses ( or if you prefer, the upper waves responsible for the low cloud generating surface features ).
Apart from the frontal zones,
over land, subsident polar air masses tend to produce clear(er) skies.
Over the oceans, polar air masses tend to produce low clouds ( maritime stratus ).
The remarkable seasonal constancy may simply be a reflection of stronger polar air masses over continents during the winter and weaker, more shallow polar air masses accumulating in the ocean basins during summer.
Similarly, the hemispheric constancy may reflect the greater tendency of oceans to create clouds when driven by the general circulation.
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by DHR
Climate4you.com has an interesting chart showing the temperature changes over the past 420,000 years based on the Vostok (Antarctic) ice cores. This data shows that the earth’s climate is bistable, i.e. two sort-of-stable temperature regimes. RGBatDuke gave us a good analysis of this point some time ago. The shortest of the two states are the interglacials which are entered and left very suddenly. Our current interglacial has lasted roughly 10,000 years, far longer than normal in this record. This may be why our civilization evolved over the past 10,000 years of interglacial stability and not before – too little time during the priors. Most of the record shows the earth in an ice age with erratic but cold temperatures dominating with occasional and brief jumps up to what we think of as “normal.” Some argue that Milankovitch cycles cause these changes but such cycles are very gradual. There must be some trigger that changes the climate suddenly from warm to cold and back. Perhaps a critical albedo change, or land configuration change, or cosmic event?? perhaps this issue is being researched but I see nothing myself. Anybody?
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by Danny Thomas
JCH,
Can’t they find the missing heat (energy) by subtraction? In other words, by what’s not making it in? While I’m not even (yet) an amatuer scientist I’ve wondered and asked here before that no matter the source (GHG’s/Albedo via WV) doesn’t our sun toss at us a complete spectrum of energy and that the “barriers” ought to work in both directions. Now the question would likely be a lack of a baseline.
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by tonyb
Surely humorous Willard, not ‘farsical?’
tonyb
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by Lucifer
One other aspect that comes to mind with this is the ITCZ.
The ITCZ is pushed by the winter hemisphere into the summer hemisphere.
The big exception is the Eastern Pacific ( and mostly the narrow equatorial Atlantic ) where the ITCZ remains North of the equator year round. This is probably because of the geography of the Andes Mountains and of Africa.
I wonder, for the longitudes in which the ITCZ is always north of the equator, does the north/south albedo symmetry still occur?
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by Lucifer
The .6 W/m^2 imbalance in the paper is between hemispheres, not between earth and space.
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Comment on ‘Big players’ and the climate science boom by c1ue
Merchants of Doubt is a ridiculous rag – because it attempts to obscure real questions on the veracity of climate catastrophe claims with accusations of motive.
The problem with this approach is that the exact same tactic is much more effectively used by skeptics. The amounts of money spent for climate change – both in terms of NGO and government spending – dwarfs that of money put into equivalent skeptic NGOs and skeptic based government spending by 2 or 3 orders of magnitude: billions vs. millions.
I personally prefer to focus on the data.
And as was first noted by Warren Meyer at climate-skeptic (to my personal knowledge), the climate catastrophe position is built upon 3 precepts: that climate change is occurring, that this change is almost entirely manmade, and that this man made change is almost entirely due to CO2 emissions.
The 1st is pretty much consensus among everyone. The second is much much less consensus, the third is the actual IPCC and climate “science” consensus.
The problem of course is that the 3rd position is based ultimately upon 2 tiers: that CO2 warms – again, pretty much everyone agrees on that, and most importantly: net climate feedbacks are highly positive.
There is no consensus whatsoever nor is there any form of substantial empirical evidence that net climate feedbacks are highly positive.
There are individual feedbacks which are highly positive, but the climate as a system exhibits no such behavior either today or in any longer term historical record or reconstruction.
This is the scam in the 3 card monte game.
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by donb
Given the high abundance of carbon in our galaxy, and its position in element synthesis in stars, a world with abundant H2O but without CO2 is quite unlikely.
Also a reducing atmosphere until the advent of O2 is an older idea no longer in vogue. Likely the Earth was formed with both CO2 and CH4, but the reducing atmosphere was lost early. In the geologic past, CO2 has been much more abundant. Also there is now some indication that the advent of O2 may have occurred in stages at different times much earlier than 1.8 Ga ago.
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by Matt Skaggs
Dr. Curry wrote:
“The implications of this paper strike me as profound.”
Absolutely. This paper fits squarely at the top of the Modern Warming fault tree. The control system that drives the climate is obviously highly damped and this paper is a big thrust towards resolution of how the damping works.
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by donb
What next ice age? Extreme glaciations are initiated by orbital cycles producing low TOA insolation in the northern hemisphere. We are some 9 thousand years beyond the last such stage in the early Holocene. In the not too distant future the NH insolation will start to increase again (following the ~21 kyr obliquity-precession cycle). For the next several tens of kyr, hemispheric insolation changes caused by orbital cycles are predicted to be relatively modest.
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Comment on ‘Big players’ and the climate science boom by c1ue
There are lots of ways by which data and measurements can be skewed – only some of which are deliberate.
There is cognitive bias where results favoring the researchers’ theses are emphasized or searched for more than results challenging researchers’ theses.
There is political bias where results which further a political goal are emphasized more than results against.
On the temperature side – there is no question whatsoever that there are many cases where the siting guidelines set by the various monitoring systems are not enforced at a nearly systematic level. How much effect does this have on the record? That’s what the debate is about – and to dismiss these perfectly valid claims is a good tell on agenda.
Equally, the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) is real, and equally the ongoing urbanization of populations all over the world is also real. The fact that this documented phenomenon has been very poorly explored and is presently not modeled to speak of is, IMO, a huge flaw in the climate modeling scheme.
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by KenW
if he had found it going into outer space,
that would mean that it’s not accumulating here on earth,
which would mean that this would be wrong http://4hiroshimas.com/
Now how would that go over?
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by KenW
Actually the paper does seem to indicate that some heat may be accumulating in the southern ocean – but likely for the wrong reasons.
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by ...and Then There's Physics
Lucifer,
No, I think it is indeed between earth and space. Towards the end of section 7, it says
This slight hemispheric difference in OLR is half the clear-sky OLR differences and is the principal source of the 0.6 W m-2 global mean imbalance in the TOA net flux
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by Tom C
This is pretty much exactly what Lindzen has been saying for years, and it accords with a commonsense understanding of the climate. The achievement of the authors is to discern and quantify mechanisms that explain precisely how the albedo is constrained. Not an easy thing to do.
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by tonyb
Mosh
Here are details of the new met office supercomputer.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/new-hpc
I saw a very early GCM at the Met Office in the early 1980’s which probably had less power than my current laptop.
There are numerous parameters- known and unknown- that need to be made in order to try to get a climate model that is as good as possible and has a reasonable representation to the real world climate.
How does the modelling output of the majority of existing computers compare to the new Met Office one? In other words, are they at all adequate/worthwhile compared to the likely output from the new breed of supercomputers?
If you don’t know, please just say so.
tonyb
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Comment on The albedo of Earth by Lucifer
Thanx ATTP, I sit corrected.
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