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Comment on Week in review by ban joshua

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PMHinSC | March 15, 2015 at 1:13 pm | Reply
jim2 | March 15, 2015 at 9:15 am
Joshua’s goal seems to be to dilute legitimate comments with crap…

As of 320 comments and 25,500 words, Joshua has 25 comments (8%) and 2,500 words (10%) most of which are OT or extraneous. Although, IMHO, Climate Etc. has the overall best content of all the climate blogs, it often is not worth wading thru several commenters who are verbose, OT, and obviously not interested in contribution anything constructive or positive. I would be supportive of a word and/or comment limit. Our Hostess obviously has more patience than I do.

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Comment on Week in review by Jim D

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Models can produce the temperature rise of 0.7 C since 1950 only with GHGs increasing. They produce the right 60-year warming amounts, including the whole hiatus, because up to 1998, the global temperature was running ahead of the model average. The skeptics never address the broader issue about how much warming there has been since 1950 preferring to avoid talking about the 60-year period as a whole. Kelly has another example of this narrow-minded view in his writing, but we see the same thing all the time in their op-eds. You can predict that they won’t talk about how much warming there has been since 1950 because it is inconvenient to their message.

Comment on Week in review by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

Comment on Week in review by Jim D

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tonyb, he can express his opinion against the RS publications as much as he likes. His views are probably not widely held in the RS, but that should not stop him. The only argument he puts forwards for his views are very selective on time scales, making a common mistake, and therefore looks cherry-picked, unfortunately. He needs to do better.

Comment on Adaptive problem solving: Integral approaches to climate change by AK

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<blockquote>The Meridional Overturning Circulation (aka thermohaline circulation, or great ocean conveyor) transports deep ocean heat to the poles. The return current is regulated by the temperature of polar sea ice.</blockquote><blockquote>Therefore in order for whatever heat that leaks from the mixed layer across the thermocline into the deep ocean to have any significant impact on abyssal temperatures it must first melt the polar ice. [...] The rate of trans-thermocline leakage downwards is unlikely to change significantly over the next century.</blockquote><a href="http://www.o3d.org/abracco/oceanmod2011.pdf" rel="nofollow">Enhanced vertical mixing within mesoscale eddies due to high frequency winds in the South China Sea</a> by Yuley Cardona, Annalisa Bracco <i>Ocean Modelling</i> Volume 42, 2012, Pages 1–15<blockquote>The South China Sea is a marginal basin with a complex circulation influenced by the East Asian Monsoon, river discharge and intricate bathymetry. As a result, both the mesoscale eddy field and the near-inertial energy distribution display large spatial variability and they strongly influence the oceanic transport and mixing.</blockquote><blockquote>With an ensemble of numerical integrations using a regional ocean model, this work investigates how the temporal resolution of the atmospheric forcing fields modifies the horizontal and vertical velocity patterns and impacts the transport properties in the basin. The response of the mesoscale circulation in the South China Sea is investigated under three different forcing conditions: monthly, daily and 6-hourly momentum and heat fluxes.</blockquote><blockquote>While the horizontal circulation does not display significant differences, <b>the representation of the vertical velocity field displays high sensitivity to the frequency of the wind forcing.</b> If the wind field contains energy at the inertial frequency or higher (daily and 6-hourly cases), then submesoscale fronts, vortex Rossby waves and near inertial waves are excited as ageostrophic expression of the vigorous eddy field. Those quasi- and near-inertial waves dominate the vertical velocity field in the mixed layer (vortex Rossby waves) and below the first hundred meters (near inertial waves) and they are <b>responsible for the differences in the vertical transport properties under the various forcing fields</b> as quantified by frequency spectra, vertical velocity profiles and vertical dispersion of Lagrangian tracers. [my bold]</blockquote>

Comment on Week in review by Jim D

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tonyb, “extremist” on the climate sensitivity scale. He probably has a narrow error bar that excludes the 3 C per doubling possibility. This would be an extremist by my definition. I suspect most RS members would allow for the IPCC central estimate to be correct with a non-negligible probability.

Comment on Week in review by Diag

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I learned a new word today: ““iatrogenic government,” an iatrogenic ailment being one caused by a physician or medicine”, with clear extensions to climate science alarmists.

This is from an article by George Will with no references to climate at all:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/415389/prescience-daniel-patrick-moynihan-george-will

The last two paragraphs are killers:

“The role of social science,” he would write, “lies not in the formulation of social policy, but in the measurement of its results.” Not in postulating what will work but in demonstrating what does work. And, increasingly, what does not work.

Chastened by “the obstinacy of things,” Moynihan recalled a Harvard chemist defining the problem that exists, in the physical sciences and perhaps in social science, when, in Moynihan’s phrasing, “the number of variables interacting with one another in any given situation makes that situation extraordinarily complicated and difficult to fathom.” Moynihan asked the chemist at what number of variables this problem begins. The chemist replied: “Three.”

Comment on Week in review by tonyb

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JImD

I will get it in the neck from Mosh for using historic context, but why look at warming only since 1950? We can go back much further;

‘The year 1740 is all the more remarkable (very cold) given the anomalous warmth of the 1730s. This decade was the warmest in three of the long temperature series (CET, De Bilt and Uppsala) until the 1990s occurred.

The mildness of the decade is confirmed by the early ice break-up dates for Lake Malaren and Tallinn Harbour. The rapid warming in the CET record from the 1690s to the 1730s and then the extreme cold year of 1740 are examples of the magnitude of natural changes which can
potentially be recorded in long series. Consideration of variability in these records from the early 19th century, therefore, may underestimate the range that is possible.

On an annual basis, mean temperatures for the period 1729–1738 are only 0.3 ◦C below the average for the last ten years (1995–2004, see Figure 1, top panel).

UNUSUAL CLIMATE IN NORTHWEST EUROPE DURING THE
PERIOD 1730 TO 1745 BASED ON INSTRUMENTAL AND
DOCUMENTARY DATA
P. D. JONES and K. R. BRIFFA (2006)

——- —— —–

Why has it been generally warming since 1700? Not 1950 or 1850 but 1700. Surely that merits investigation and explanation, as does the much longer roller coaster ride from the MWP through the LIA to today. Climate isn’t static.

tonyb


Comment on Week in review by John Vonderlin

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PMH? Wading through? You do know about the scroll wheel, right? If I find certain commenters contributions to be consistently a waste of my time that’s what I do. Just Warwick them and scroll on by.
While I find Joshua’s persistent personal attacks on Dr. Curry irritating, he contributes a viewpoint that is valuable for several reasons. Firstly, on occasion he asserts weaknesses in others point of view that need to be considered, even if I ultimately discard them as lacking credibility or relevance.
Secondly, the positions he asserts in his comments frequently energize many commenters to state their opposing positions. When it is not ridiculous semantical nitpicking that seems to go nowhere, I often gain greater insight into the subject matter of these exchanges.
Joshua, Gates, and FOMD, just to name a few of the usual suspects, are an important reason why this blog is so informationally dense and entertaining. Whatever their motivations to come here and frequently irritate me, I am thankful they do. And when I’m overloaded with repetitive blah, blah, that scroll wheel makes them disappear. Truly a win-win circumstance.

Comment on Week in review by RiHo08

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HR

Beware the Ides of March

“A quick look at some US consumption stats suggest that the US diet has changed in many ways and for many different, complex reasons.”

Indeed this is a statement with which many people will agree. It’s like the statement that climate is changing all the time.

OTOH, a statement like “CO2 is the control knob to climate” is both bold and assertive, something one can sink their teeth into. It may not be true, but it is startling. Grabs you attention.

Now the evidence for statements about “unhealthy” food in school cafeterias comes from non-other than our First Lady and her widely publicized pronouncements of such calamity in the school lunch program. It is true that the kids are dumping their lunches into the trash container and preferring to go hungry for part of the afternoon until they get out of school, passing McDonalds as they wend their way home.

“For example anti-cholesterol hasnt done anything to the growing popularity of fast food over the past decades.” And just how long has the anti-fat in the school lunch campaign been so widely publicized and steps taken to implement?

Again, the “facts” of a changing American diet is evident. The reasons why there is an ant-fat campaign has to do with decades of efforts, mostly by expert panels who pick and choose whichever data that fits their opinions gets pronounced as “facts.”

What I started out to say, that the current crop of climate scientists have been picking and choosing their set of facts to advance their opinions both scientifically and politically. No different than the “health” promoters coming from National Laboratories, Renowned Clinical Centers, and the ubiquitous participants to talking head shows. Remember Geritol: “feel stronger fast”, that is of course, if you are iron deficient, and if you are not, then… liver side effects; not many, just enough though.

Comment on Week in review by AK

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<blockquote>[...] trade embargos by capitalist countries may be involved in the ideological warfare.</blockquote>Wasn't "Communism" supposed to be a <b>superior</b> economic system? Then why did they need trade with the west? The “<i>embargos</i>” certainly didn't hurt the "inferior" capitalist countries. The Soviet Union <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Bloc#East_Germany" rel="nofollow">confiscated many factories</a> from Eastern Germany:<blockquote>Factories, equipment, technicians, managers and skilled personnel were forcibly transferred to the Soviet Union.[59]</blockquote>They <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Bloc#Marshall_Plan_rejection" rel="nofollow">also rejected the Marshall Plan</a><blockquote>In June 1947, after the Soviets had refused to negotiate a potential lightening of restrictions on German development, the United States announced the Marshall Plan, a comprehensive program of American assistance to all European countries wanting to participate, including the Soviet Union and those of Eastern Europe.[137] The Soviets rejected the Plan and took a hard line position against the United States and non-communist European nations.[138] However, of great concern to the Soviets was Czechoslovakia's eagerness to accept the aid and indications of a similar Polish attitude.[115]</blockquote><blockquote>In one of the clearest signs of Soviet control over the region up to that point, the Czechoslovakian foreign minister, Jan Masaryk, was summoned to Moscow and berated by Stalin for considering joining the Marshall Plan. Polish Prime minister Józef Cyrankiewicz was rewarded for the Polish rejection of the Plan with a huge 5 year trade agreement, including $450 million in credit, 200,000 tons of grain, <b>heavy machinery and factories.</b>[139]</blockquote>All this makes it clear that, from the end of WWII, the Soviet Union considered itself prepared for a full economic competition with the West, not requiring the trade that was “<i>embargoed</i>” They wanted to compete on "equal" terms, and they lost. As is always the case when socialist systems compete with (even semi-)free market capitalist systems. That's why they're so hot for world government: only by infiltrating and subverting an overarching world government can they "compete", by using their control to put regulatory and other bureaucratic roadblocks in the way of free enterprise.

Comment on Week in review by Jim D

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tonyb, 75% of all the CO2 emitted was emitted since 1950, and it is no coincidence that this 60-year period also exhibits the largest warming rate of any 60-year period in the global temperature record. This cannot be ignored as evidence.

Comment on Week in review by Steven Mosher

Comment on Week in review by jim2

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Science isn’t consensus driven. Never has been, never will be.

Comment on Week in review by jim2

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JimD claims the current warming is “no coincidence,” but can’t prove it.


Comment on Week in review by Jim D

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I agree. Joshua plays mind games and when he sees hypocrisy in an argument, he is going to point it out sometimes by mimicking that argument technique to see if those using it complain about it when he does it. It can be too subtle for some to see. This forces people to think more about their arguments.

Comment on Week in review by jim2

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Joshua asserts double standards for significantly different scenarios. That’s not helpful. In fact, it mainly acts to instigate uncertainty, which is probably one of Joshua’s goals. Double standards and hypocrisy have to be judged on the details of the two situations, ideas, individual, etc. involved in the comparison. Joshua’s brush in conveniently broad.

Comment on Week in review by Jim D

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jim2, yes, science is only evidence driven. Consensus reviews of the science are just needed for politicians to make decisions. It is done all the time. Climate change isn’t the first time this has been done.

Comment on Week in review by John Vonderlin

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Hi Diag,
Regarding Naomi Klein’s screed:
Expanding on the comparison of climate alarmist’s “iatrogenic government” policies that might cause worse problems than the theorized climate change, it might be good to consider “iatrogenic’s” older sibling, “nosocomial.”
Nosocomial: Originating or taking place in a hospital, acquired in a hospital, especially in regards to an infection.
The term “nosocomial” comes from two Greek words: “nosus” meaning “disease” + “komeion” meaning “to take care of.” Hence, “nosocomial” should apply to any disease contracted by a patient while under medical care. However, common usage of the term “nosocomial” is now synonymous with hospital-acquired.
Reading Naomi Klein’s bleating about the need to radically restructure every aspect of our lives to banish the CO2 bogeyman I can’t help but see that as a demand to hospitalize the world. Based on history, the “nosocomial” unintended consequences of such a hypercentralization of power, may kill most of the patients while trying to save them. More than one radical Green has wished for an infection that greatly reduced the pestilence of humans. Naomi Klein may be the Judas Goat leading the way.

Comment on Week in review by AK

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China’s methane hydrates hold frozen promise

With efforts to tap into its extensive shale gas reserves proving disappointing so far, China is now stepping up preparations to exploit another potentially large unconventional energy resource: methane hydrates.

The state agency China Geological Survey (CGS) reckons it will be ready to begin a pilot production of methane hydrate from beneath the South China Sea within three years. The pilot programme will pave the way for full commercial development by 2030, it said. Natural gas is in favour with Beijing as the government strives to reduce the consumption of both coal and oil. Domestic conventional reserves, however, are limited and imports are proving expensive. China has estimated its shale gas reserves in the trillions of cubic metres but development has been sluggish owing to high costs and technological challenges. The same problems bedevil tapping into methane trapped in coalfields.

Now, in an effort to spread its bets on future domestic gas supply, China is pushing forward with ambitions to tap into its frozen gas reserves.

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