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Comment on Temperature adjustments in Australia by Ron Clutz

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Update to Adjustments Warming US CRN#1 Stations

In response to a comment, this post shows the effect of GHCN adjustments on each of the 23 stations. The average station was warmed by +0.58 C/Century, from +.18 to +.76, comparing adjusted to unadjusted records.

19 station records were warmed, 6 of them by more than +1 C/century. 4 stations were cooled, most of the total cooling coming at one station, Tallahassee.

So for this set of stations, the chance of adjustments producing warming is 19/23 or 83%.

Details here: https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/03/19/update-to-adjustments-warming-us-crn1-stations/


Comment on On the social contract between science and society by Joshua

Comment on On the social contract between science and society by andywest2012

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Your comparison to biology is apt. Your ‘unique solution’ theory is an aspect of evolutionary processes in society that operate with similar rules to biology. Narrative success is rewarded more than veracity, and thus communicated solutions (whether or not based upon some original workable principle) soon become narratives in competition, in which they get shaped to be better adapted (by both chance and intelligence) for success. For example a higher emotive content will aid success. So will multiple emotions (e.g. fear and hope). So will simplicity (even if that detracts from the real-world solution). These are familiar concepts in the domain of cultural evolution.

It is neither guile nor ignorance, the latter in the sense that no-one can possibly know everything, so evolution has bequeathed to us a truly enormous computer called ‘society’ in order to solve the wicked problems that we have encountered thus far. A consequence of this bequethal is that solutions can only be arrived at via the coordinated contribution of many. Yet the very mechanisms which underpin that co-ordination (social consensus, ‘singing off the same hymsheet’), are subject to narrative take-over by winners of the above competition. History suggests that true knowledge will eventually triumph, in the long-term real-world constraints still trump arbitrary narrative. But it may be via a society less afflicted by the negative narrative that has taken hold (China?)

Comment on On the social contract between science and society by omanuel

Comment on On the social contract between science and society by Danny Thomas

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GaryM,
If you’re defining decarbonization narrowly to doing in the evil demon FF industry.
I’m a middle grounder for several reasons, but as an enjoyer of the great outdoors and at the risk of being labeled (gasp) green it appears there is much we can do which have stand alone benefits and side benefits of addressing CO2 (making it politically doable). You likely know better than I, but increasing biomass, improved farming techniques, reforestation, recycling and the like are doable. FF will not last forever so alternatives research just makes sense. We’re making baking soda at cement plants.
So, “There is no middle ground on decarbonization.”, depending on how you define it I disagree.

Comment on On the social contract between science and society by joseph1002000

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So be specific. Who exactly has been prevented from challenging claims due to peer review or from what was revealed in climategate . That shouldn’t be hard to answer.

Comment on On the social contract between science and society by joseph1002000

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but will pilloried for their trouble</blockquote> What does that even mean??

Comment on On the social contract between science and society by Latimer Alder (@latimeralder)

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@Ken Rice (ATTP/Wottsie/whatever)

Do I trust in science and the scientific method? Sure I do.

But that’s not at all the same as trusting all those who happen to have found employment in the business of churning out academic papers in the ‘scientific literature’ for a career

And too often – especially in climatology – we find that the latter crew have forgotten the principles of the former ideal. See Climategate, (the gift that goes on giving) for many vibrant real-world examples of such amnesia.

Gotta say that I’m not at all surprised you want to sell me a dodgy second-hand car. You make my point for me.


Comment on Blog moderation etc. by canmane

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I take it all back. Got it figured out and it works great!

Comment on Temperature adjustments in Australia by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

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euan, I don’t think you are going to get anywhere with this particular approach. You will probably get further and have more fun aggravating some folks using the CRUTs3.22 temperature and precipitation data set. The mid 70s cooling correlates with higher than normal precipitation. Since rain can be pretty random and since the homogenize temperature products don’t consider changes in precipitation patterns, they likely overly weight dry regions.

Tree ring proxy “reconstructions” would have the same issue. They would need to be compared to a combined temp/precip index instead of assuming just temperature correlations.

US Georgia has the same issues. So take a hint from Dr. Curry’s, “fit for purpose” comment and you can show how homogenized and adjusted temperature products are not fit for determining local climate and land use impacts. btw, water retention/water sheds are likely the main land use impact so you would need a combined temp/precip metric to start sorting that out. And since precipitation and convection are related you really need an absolute temperature not an anomaly. PDO/AMO/NMO are all precipitation changers so you might be able to aggravate a few other geniuses along the way.

Comment on On the social contract between science and society by Steven Mosher

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Who said anything about no authority.

Comment on On the social contract between science and society by ...and Then There's Physics

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Latimer,

Gotta say that I’m not at all surprised you want to sell me a dodgy second-hand car. You make my point for me.

Okay, I’ll explain my point, since you clearly didn’t get it. Scientists aren’t politicians or car salespeople. They’re don’t care if you trust them or not – or, at least, they shouldn’t care. Science/physical reality doesn’t care if you trust the scientists or not. Why would we want scientists to learn how to seem more trustworthy? Why would we want scientists to avoid saying things that you think would damage your trust in them? It would be easy enough to do. If politicians and car salespeople can do it, I’m sure scientists could learn to behave in a more trustworthy way. Of course, the reality is that we wouldn’t suddenly trust them more, because it would be obvious that they were doing so in order to gain your trust, not because they are intrinsically trustworthy. We trust the method not the peolpe.

Now, given that you will almost certainly misinterpret what I’m saying, let me make clear that I’m not arguing that scientists should not behave in a suitable manner, or that we shouldn’t discourage bad behaviour. I’m also not excusing bad behaviour or those who have behaved unethically. I’m simply making the very obvious point that just because you trust/distrust some individuals is not a particularly good reason to trust/distrust a scientific result. In fact, it’s a very poor reason to do so.

And too often – especially in climatology – we find that the latter crew have forgotten the principles of the former ideal. See Climategate, (the gift that goes on giving) for many vibrant real-world examples of such amnesia.

No, what we really find (and this seems self-evidently true) are a tiny minority of vocal people with little actual experience in scientific research claiming that – especially in climatology – scientists have forgotten these ideals, and harping back to email exchanges that go back almost 20 years and which involve a tiny number of scientists. If this really is the best you can do, you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel. Also, if this is one of your main reasons for distrusting the results of climate science then you really should not call yourself a skeptic. That has a very specific scientific meaning. A better word would be “dubious” (actually there’s an even better word, but we’re not meant to use it, because then people like you get all upset about name calling and things).

Comment on On the social contract between science and society by Wagathon

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Sure, sure, <em>the taxpayer foots the bill</em> for the care and feeding of all the global warming <em>advocates, partisans and alarmists</em> and job-killing pseudo science and it's not just tax dollars from the rest of us who cannot afford to live in ivory towers. There are $1.2 trillion in outstanding student loans and 7 million borrowers are in default to the tune of $100 billion; and, for what? To be schooled on the idea that we live to well, take too many hot showers and should all live above a deli and walk to work, sewing flags on the bottoms of recycled trousers?

Comment on On the social contract between science and society by Danny Thomas

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Aaron,
Mitt, I fear, is cut from the same cloth as most politicians.
Had he made it far enough, my vote last term likely would have gone this way:”I will not be attending this year’s convention, nor any Republican convention in the future until the party focuses on a bigger, bolder, more confident future for the United States — a future based on problem solving, inclusiveness, and a willingness to address the trust deficit, which is every bit as corrosive as our fiscal and economic deficits.” (Says he’s not running in 2016) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Huntsman,_Jr.
And to be clear, from this observers view the above quote applies both (existing) directions.

Comment on On the social contract between science and society by nickels

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Yes saw the Gore thing.
Why don’t we just go dig up Jesus….
Sign of a party with complete intellectual and creative shutdown…..
(unlike the repubs ha!)


Comment on On the social contract between science and society by justinwonder

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Douglas,

The more I read this the more I like it. I think, for the politicians,it is guile, but for much of the populace it is a combination of ignorance and gullibility. The political left uses the CAGW meme to hammer the opposition, reward friends and fundraisers, and to keep their supporters animated and motivated to show up on election day. Interesting post.

Comment on Bankruptcy of the ‘merchants of doubt’ meme by nickels

Comment on On the social contract between science and society by John Carpenter

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Micheal, I think she meant not criticizing scientists by name. Even so, there still may be statements she made of certain scientists that could fit your Hmmm. I will take a charitable position and say that the instances are likely few. If you produce one where she calls someone out by name, how does it improve the discussion?

Comment on On the social contract between science and society by stevenreincarnated

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Unless you can find someone that thinks there should be no authority, you aren’t going to find someone that questions all authority. The person in the question authority t-shirt is asking why should I stop at this stop sign. It’s out here in the middle of nowhere on a dirt road and not even at an intersection. That doesn’t mean they are questioning stopping at every stop sign. It doesn’t mean they are refering to all authority.

Comment on On the social contract between science and society by justinwonder

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Gary,

I think you are correct that decarbonization is the goal for the true believers. I have friends who are absolutely convinced that a solar panel on every rooftop would power the world as we know it today. None of them have STEM backgrounds – no appeal to mathematics will do as the narrative is deeply embedded and has become part of their value system. Others think we can give up many aspects of modernity but do not understand how much we rely on technology and power to provide food and clean water, treat sewage, and provide medical care. Modern medicine and it’s associated technology depends on abundant, inexpensive power. One dear friend is being kept alive by Kaytruda and Zelboraf. Those drugs represent the tip of a modern technological spear.

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