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Comment on Blog discussions by popesclimatetheory

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And, to be fair, I’ve got lots wrong, but it’s all a learning experience. You’ll probably hate this, but people like Joshua and Willard are also a help, since they challenge you to think about what you’re doing.

I have learned much from people who tell me that I am wrong.
Sometimes I am wrong, and other times I was right but I really did not explain it well enough.

I do like for people to agree with me, I really do, but I learn less from them.


Comment on Blog discussions by matthewrmarler

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<i> But the question remains: What’s the secret sauce of Climate, etc.? Why do Judith Curry, Gavin Schmidt (RealClimate), Andy Revkin (DotEarth) and a handful of others provide such fertile soil for extended discussion, when the rest of the world’s 200 million bloggers go unremarked and observed? </i> Beats me.

Comment on Blog discussions by ...and Then There's Physics

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David,
The word “mainly” was there for a reason. It does mean there will also be other reasons, but it is “mainly” tone. It’s not a particularly complicated concept. Yes, I do also moderate “typical skeptic talking points”, especially if they are from someone who’s past behaviour would indicate that discouraging them from commenting on my blog would be advised.

Comment on Week in review by jim2

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matthew. Let’s assume for the sake of argument that there will be no increase or decrease in water vapor with a doubling of CO2. So, the contribution of CO2 would move from 2 w/m2 to 4 w/m2, let’s say. The water already in the atmosphere, in the static scenario assumed, will STILL be ~ 200w/m2. The extra 2 w/m2 or even the entire 4 w/ms will be washed out by water vapor.

I know this is a stretch for some who haven’t considered water as simply a greenhouse gas, but there it is.

Comment on Blog discussions by ...and Then There's Physics

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I was referring to running and moderating a blog; as if that wasn’t obvious. You’re rather illustrating the point I was making in my response to tonyb.

Comment on Blog discussions by richardswarthout

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Springer

Your comment was extremely unwelcome. However, I now have solid reason to ignore all your future comments, easy as side-stepping horsesh*t.

Comment on Blog discussions by jim2

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“I hold firmly to my original views. After all I am a philosopher. ”
― Voltaire, Candide: or, Optimism

Comment on Blog discussions by jim2

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I was applying a bit of humor. That being said, the US has a history of electing bad presidents of late.


Comment on Blog discussions by Steven Mosher

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conflict. yes
spectacle. yes
Skimpy dress? if you want to wear one be my guest

Comment on Blog discussions by popesclimatetheory

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Dr Curry. Thank you for your blog about blogs! I had not heard of this one before. I don’t go looking for blogs, I just bump into them when I am looking for information and data. More often on Climate etc than elsewhere.

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/

Comment on Blog discussions by euanmearns

Comment on Blog discussions by euanmearns

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Judy, my “Last Post” at The Oil Drum.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10249

The Oil Drum (TOD) was an internet energy phenomenon that ran for over eight years from April 2005 to September 2013. The site was founded by Prof. Goose (also known as Professor Kyle Saunders of Colorado State University) and Heading Out (also known as Professor Dave Summers formerly of the Missouri University of Science and Technology).

The site took off with the advent of Hurricane Rita in September 2005 and resulted in the first 200+ comment event, indicating that there was demand for a site where concerned citizens could gather round a camp fire to discuss events impacting their energy supplies and ultimately, their well being. In eight years, >960,000 comments have been posted. Two other energy linked disasters, the Deepwater Horizon blowout and the Fukushima Daiichi reactor melt downs would see readership soar to >75,000 unique visits per day.

These pages have hosted over 7,500 articles covering every aspect of the global energy system. It was not unusual for a post to attract over 600 comments, many of which were well informed and contained charts and links to other internet sources. The site would become known for a uniquely high level of discourse where armchair analysts of all stripes added their knowledge to threads in a courteous, and ultimately pro-social way that energy experts at hedge funds, corporations or universities might not have the freedom to do. It is this emergent property of smart people sharing knowledge on a critical topic to humanity’s future that will be missed.

The site was built on twin backbones that would often pull the readership in opposite directions. Drumbeats, edited by Leanan (who remains anonymous to this day) provided daily energy news digest and a forum for debate. And articles, written by a legion of volunteer writers, that strove to provide a more quantitative analysis of global energy supplies and the political, social and economic events that lay behind them. All the content would not have been possible without the tireless efforts of Super G, our site engineer, who maintained and updated software and hardware as the site grew and evolved for over eight years on a voluntary basis.

In the course of 2013, a decision was made to archive The Oil Drum and the main purpose of this Last Post is to provide some direction to new and future readers of the vast content it contains. The main contributors are listed below along with links to where their writings can be now be found. If you are looking for content there are two main options. The first is to look for author specific content where clicking on the live hyper linked name of the contributor will take you to a page giving access to all the content produced by that author. The second option is to use the Advanced Search facility at the top left of this page. Simply enter a few key words and this will return a page of the most relevant articles.

Comment on Week in review by Jim D

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Matthew Marler, the hydrological cycle doesn’t prevent there being more water vapor over warmer water. It is just a more fueled cycle. It rains more heavily in the tropics and the air is moister there too. They go together, not compete.

Comment on Blog discussions by climatereason

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Danny

I note from our records that you don’t appear to have paid your subscription after your months free trial of this climate product.

If you would just like to transfer your 500 dollars direct to my bank account I will make sure the correct administrative processes are started.
5 dollars from every subscription goes to support our polar bear population

Tonyb
Official administrator.

Comment on Blog discussions by euanmearns

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And my thoughts on it. Quality trumps volume. My most read post on Energy Matters (EM) has had 17,246 reads (What is the real cost of shale gas). The second most read 10,634 reads (The 2014 Oil price Crash Explained). The latter post has probably had more than 100,000 though on the webs, cross posted to about 20 other blogs including Zero Hedge and Automatic Earth, Oil price dot Com etc.

Comment volume is an extremely poor metric for a blog – from my perspective. I am looking to learn from a comment thread and whenever it goes over 100 I can’t follow and it normally means a few blow hards arguing with each other.

The bane of my life for years has been Green Trolls. They are inexhaustible and there is an infinite supply. Given the chance they will dominate the conversation on any energy or climate related blog – you need to watch out!. So I have a hard line on comment moderation, anyone suspected of being a GT simply gets placed on moderation. Most give up within days. But I have a couple of commenters at present who have much to offer by way of providing quality opinion from the warmist side of the debate who have been on moderation for months. I find when they are on moderation they provide quality input, off moderation they go wild.


Comment on Blog discussions by jim2

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Thanks. That is a pretty impressive drop in power output!

Comment on Implications of lower aerosol forcing for climate sensitivity by AK

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While reading the <a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/75831381/Stevens%20aerosol.pdf" rel="nofollow">actual Stevens paper</a>, I noticed the following, which stimulated some thoughts (below):<blockquote>To the extent that changing patterns of emissions are important for the global forcing, it would be more appropriate to express <b>F</b>aer as a function of the source strength of the different patterns of emissions, something that comprehensive models are designed to do. Two of the three models (GFDL-AM3 and GISS-E2-R) analyzed by Shindell et al. (2013) for the period between 1980 and the present day indeed show that, starting in the 1990s, a multiple (rather than single) pattern based approach might be necessary to encapsulate the global forcing, as the rise of SO2 emissions in South- and East-Asia give rise to a forcing from aerosol cloud interactions that more than offsets the reduction in forcing caused by declining North American and European emissions. The response of these two models explains the scatter in the comprehensive modelling estimates at high sulfate 159 burdens in Fig. 2 and is the basis of the claim by Shindell et al. (2013) that, despite a reduction in <b>Q</b>a<b>, F</b>aer becomes more negative over the past thirty years. However, the signal underlying this claim is very small compared to the uncertainties in the modelling, and is not robust – an equal number of studies show no change in forcing between 1980 and 2000, e.g., the blue points in Fig. 2, which are taken from Carslaw et al., as well as results from the CSIRO model, which was the third one analyzed by Shindell et al.. A more recent study even shows that there is a strong decrease in the magnitude of <b>F</b>aer over the same period (Kuhn et al. 2014).</blockquote>The reference to shifts in opposing directions of aerosol production in South-East Asia and Europe/North America reminded me of a subject that, IMO, has received far to little attention: the role of the Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau complex in driving the evolution of the climate. For instance, increasing aerosol pollution appears to have strong interactions with convective activity associated with the summer mid/upper-level anticyclone over this area [Fadnavis <i>et al.</i> (2013)]. This means that a “<i>rise of SO2 </i>[and especially insoluble]<i> emissions in South- and East-Asia</i>” should not be seen as somehow "balancing" “<i>declining North American and European emissions</i>”. Even the assumption that their direct radiative effects will somehow "balance" is highly questionable, considering the different trajectories and differential access to the stratosphere via the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) and the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) [Fueglistaler <i>et al.</i> (2004)]. Given (or, perhaps, despite) how little is known regarding cloud dynamics at all, much less the effect of aerosols of various types on the dynamics of convective systems, it seems very implausible that simple changes in load would have balancing effects, given the potentially very different convective systems they interact with. From Chen <i>et al.</i> (2012):<blockquote>The results show that (1) the dominant origin of the moisture supplied to the TP [Tibet Plateau] is a narrow tropical–subtropical band in the extended Arabian Sea covering a long distance from the Indian subcontinent to the Southern Hemisphere. [...] (3) In contrast to the moisture origin confined in the low level, the origin and fate of whole column air mass over the TP is largely controlled by a strong high-level Asian anticyclone. The results show that the TP is a crossroad of air mass where air enters mainly from the northwest and northeast and continues in two separate streams: one goes southwestwards over the Indian Ocean and the other southeastwards through western North Pacific.</blockquote>This is important for several reasons: it's quite possible that emissions from India have a different effect from those from China, given their much higher chance of influencing convection in this critical area. (Also, depending on the role of “<i>whole column air mass</i>” in carrying aerosols, there might be substantial differences among the effects of aerosols released in Southern, Northern, and Northwestern China.) In addition, any aerosols drawn into the convective system have a much greater chance of influencing the transport of water vapor into the Stratosphere [Fueglistaler <i>et al.</i> (2004)]:<blockquote>Our analysis emphasizes the importance of particular pathways for tropical TST, with the western Pacific being the dominant source of stratospheric air in general and being the place, in particular, where ~70% of tropical TST [troposphere-to-stratosphere transport] assumes its final water mixing ratio.</blockquote>Overall, the enormous number of unknowns, both known unknowns and unknown unknowns, involved in the effects of aerosol loads from these sources render the results of <b>any</b> modelling highly questionable. After all, “<i>Global Average Temperature</i>” is a very uninformative metric, not really related to the actual effects experienced by <b>anybody</b>. There could be any number of different result states, with different impacts on "humanity", all with the same “<i>Global Average Temperature</i>”. <b>References:</b> <b>Fueglistaler <i>et al.</i> (2004)</b> <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2003JD004069/full" rel="nofollow">Tropical troposphere-to-stratosphere transport inferred from trajectory calculations</a> by S. Fueglistaler, H. Wernli, and T. Peter <i>Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres</i> Volume 109, Issue D3, 16 February 2004 <b>Fadnavis <i>et al.</i> (2013)</b> <a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/12/C13590/2013/acpd-12-C13590-2013-supplement.pdf" rel="nofollow">Transport of aerosols into the UTLS and their impact on the Asian monsoon region as seen in a global model simulation</a> by Fadnavis, S.; Semeniuk, K.; Pozzoli, L.; Schultz, M. G.; Ghude, S. D.; Das, S.; Kakatkar, R. <i>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,</i> Volume 13, Issue 17, 2013, pp.8771-8786 <b>Chen <i>et al.</i> (2012)</b> <a href="http://www.ualberta.ca/~eec/chen_2012.pdf" rel="nofollow">On the origin and destination of atmospheric moisture and air mass over the Tibetan Plateau</a> by Bin Chen, Xiang-De Xu, Shuai Yang, and Wei Zhang <i>Theoretical and Applied Climatology</i> December 2012, Volume 110, Issue 3, pp 423-435

Comment on Blog discussions by Danny Thomas

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TonyB,
Fine, up my post count and get me that much closer to moderation (no fault of my own, of course).
I would “like” to send you $500 and am more than happy to have $5 go to protect polar bears (and all them others). But I’m skeptical of what the “correct administrative processes” might entail. But that’s just me.

Comment on Week in review by Don Monfort

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Please keep jimmy dee around. He’s tedious and staunchly dogmatic in his obsessive defense of the cause, but an easy target. And if you like to entertain yourself by checking in on the left-looney shenanigans at huffpo occasionally, you can count on jimmy to drop their link for you, every hour or so. And compared with little joshie, jimmy dee ain’t so bad. JMVHO.

Comment on Blog discussions by ...and Then There's Physics

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I too learn for people who tell me that I’m wrong, or who challenege me. However, they would typically have to do a little more than simply say “you’re wrong you idiot!” :-)

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