Here’s what I can tell you about the models – they’re not useful for predicting temperature:
MODEL: IPCC5 (RCP8.5): 4.2C/century
MODEL: IPCC4 Warming High: 4.0C/century
MODEL: Hansen A: 3.2C/century ( since 1979 )
MODEL: Hansen B: 2.8C/century ( since 1979 )
MODEL: IPCC4 next few decades: 2.0C/century
MODEL: Hansen C: 1.9C/century ( since 1979 )
MODEL: IPCC4 Warming Low: 1.8C/century
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Observed: NASA GISS: ~1.6C/century ( since 1979 )
Observed: NCDC: ~1.5C/century ( since 1979 )
Observed: UAH MSU LT: ~1.4C/century (since 1979 )
Observed: RSS MSU LT: ~1.3C/century (since 1979 )
MODEL: IPCC5 (RCP2.6): 1.0C/century
Observed: RSS MSU MT: ~0.8C/century (since 1979 )
Observed: UAH MSU MT: ~0.5C/century (since 1979 )
I can tell you that the models are useless for predicting precipitation other than a global mean, because precipitation is a function of unpredictable air mass motion. That goes for storms as well.
I can also tell you that people like Santer tried to concoct a hot spot that matched the models rather than calling it a black swan by looking at two decades only of a much smaller ‘tropics’ when the trends look like this:
This is a big deal, because as I mention above, dynamics determine how much energy leaves to space by determining how much energy arrives in the upper troposphere.
A lot of ‘main stream’ IPCC crew wants to claim, the raobs are bad and leave it there. But as you can see, the pattern of trends from RATPAC, UAH and RSS are all quite similar. It would be strange to have an error that occurred just in the tropics and just between 400 and 200 millibars.
So it’s a tell that the group think is to question the observations and not the data ( it’s not a black swan! ).
Even Isaac Held, who I respect, can’t seem to bring himself to accept that a key aspect of energy transfer ( and according to theory, a big negative feedback ) doesn’t exist.
None of this means that radiatively active gasses aren’t active radiatively as has been shown for long before the advent of the IPCC. Yes there should be warming, subject to unpredictable dynamics.
So, what exactly do you believe the models are useful for?
