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Comment on Blog topics discussion thread by Peter Lang

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My suggestion: A tab at the top for each major category, like BraveNewClimate used to run before the owner revamped the site for the twitters and made it dreadful format. Here are two examples of what was under tabs as they used to be (unfortunately he hasn’t continued to update it with new posts):
– Renewable Limits: http://bravenewclimate.com/renewable-limits/
– Sustainable Nuclear: http://bravenewclimate.com/integral-fast-reactor-ifr-nuclear-power/

I’d suggest you could begin with categories such as:
– policy and politics
– energy, food, water
– science, research and other


Comment on Blog topics discussion thread by ianl8888

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I’ve taken a while to reply – Judith just keeps turning this damned registration crap on and off like a light switch. Very, very IRRITATING – I will not ever hold my privacy hostage to In Your Face, Twithead and other adolescent muckups …

@ Peter Lang

I do not think politicians (Ministers) are necessarily stupid – I do think, and I’ve had as much contact with them as you say you’ve had, that they become cynical abusers of power. Faustino (Cunningham) ran this same straw man as you on a similar comment I had made earlier

Running straw men against me is just insulting. If I were to return the favour, I’d wonder why Aus policies are still as messy, or even worse, after decades of advice from you – but I’d never say that out loud

Of course I understand what you are trying to do. I am suggesting that in your earlier posts you may have naively underestimated your opposition. You appear to have rectified that now.

I’ve evolved from that. Trying to “edumacate” the general public on non-linear, complex science/mathstats issues is a game with no hope of a win. Trying to imprint a base for grasping what base load means may have some traction (I hope), but my considerable experience says that most people do NOT understand what loss of reliable base load power really entails; a blackout for a few hours or a day or so is the hard limit to their experiences and they simply cannot extrapolate this beyond a very short timescale

Lunacy awaits us …

Comment on Blog topics discussion thread by Mark Silbert

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Brandon,

The book is a collection of essays by various authors. The stuff you find objectionable was probably in Bob Carter’s essay. He might be a bit pegged over in his views, but I think he is a credible Scientist worth reading or listening to.

In any event essays by Lindzen, Darwall, Lawson, Essex, , Pat Michaels, Bernie Lewin! Matt Ridley, Monckton, Mark Steyn and others stand on there own and are worth reading. I believe that Climate Change, The Facts” is a good resource for people interested in skeptical views. I encourage you to take a look at it as opposed to ruling it out based on a synopsis.

I did enjoy your book. Having read Monckton’s book, yours was a nice refresher. Thanks for the effort you expended to write it.

Comment on Is climate change a ‘ruin’ problem? by Karl Hallowell

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Or to itself. One of the key problems with the Precautionary Principle is its glaring self-inconsistency. One should look on it with great suspicion whenever it is claimed to be used impartially since its primary role is to obstruct that which the user of the Principle opposes.

Comment on Blog topics discussion thread by Don Monfort

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Who told you to buy the book, Brandon? Hey, I just thought of something: in a collection of essays from a lot of different people you are liable to find a variety of viewpoints. I am guessing they didn’t ask you to contribute your 99 cents worth.

Comment on Blog topics discussion thread by Mark Silbert

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I just replied to Brandon in a measured and constructive manner and ended up in moderation. .???

Comment on Is climate change a ‘ruin’ problem? by JCH

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Is the probability that global warming will be devastating in its global consequence so low, so vanishingly small, that it can safely be ignored?

Now put you agenda hat on and say no so we can move on.

Comment on Is climate change a ‘ruin’ problem? by Turbulent Eddie

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What devastation do you have in mind?


Comment on Is climate change a ‘ruin’ problem? by Doug Proctor

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Can a more complete understanding of the PreCautionary Principle be achieved by looking at it in reverse?

Let us say that a perfect solution – complete harmony with nature, or huge personal wealth that guarantees individual actualization and security – lies in the “fat tail”. In the reverse PP, should we be risking all of today’s resources to attain this end?

The PreCautionary Principle should have a positive corollary. We avoid one side while we seek to attain the other. Both have outcomes of “known” qualities that come with poorly defined probabilities and costs, i.e. risks.

Comment on Blog topics discussion thread by maksimovich

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<i> It is well known that TSI changes only 0.1% over a typical sunspot cycle.</i> It is also equally well known that the difference in TSI due to orbital forcing during the waxing and waning of glaciations is 0.1%,a constraint from using global metrics.

Comment on Is climate change a ‘ruin’ problem? by AK

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Is the probability that global warming will be devastating in its global consequence so low, so vanishingly small, that it can safely be ignored?

Probably. But what time-frame? Are you talking about 2 meters of sea-level rise by 2100? That’s barely a threat. Just a spur to adaptation.

Comment on Is climate change a ‘ruin’ problem? by JCH

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The global devastation that is possible. If you can quantify the odds of it, let’s see the numbers.

Comment on Is climate change a ‘ruin’ problem? by beththeserf

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On the basis of Paul Ehrlich’s horrible record for doom-
saying you’d hafta’ give him a miss. And Philiip Tetlock’s
study of prediction records of ‘experts,’ is a timely reminder
re risk management where risks are uncertain and action
costly $$$$$$$, thereby weakening economies and making
them less adaptable to black swans. Fergit ‘climate change’
it’s what nature does, call it what you mean, ‘global warming,’
plants love it … ‘ summer time and the livin’ is easy.’

Seems Nassim Taleb reference to climate and models is
out of kilter with his arguments in ‘The Black Swan’ and
‘Antifragile’ eg Ch 10 of AF on naive intervention and on
iatrogenics, ‘ first do no harm’ which he advocates not just
in medicine but in political science , economics and other
domains as well.. Ref p 113 -115.

Comment on Blog topics discussion thread by curryja

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I got spammed by 10 messages last nite from David in TX impersonating other posters, so I turned it back on. I will do my best to manage this situation, but it is not simple.

Comment on Blog topics discussion thread by Mark Silbert

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Hey Don, how are you doing?

My reply to Brandon, still in moderation, was similar to yours.


Comment on Blog topics discussion thread by curryja

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I haven’t read the book, i thought the factor i mentioned might be the issue.

Comment on Is climate change a ‘ruin’ problem? by John Smith (it's my real name)

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there used to be squadrons of B52s aloft 24/7 365 filled with nukes ready to turn toward the USSR at a moments notice
20 minutes from the end of the world
now that’s what I call ‘ruin’
swear to Gaia, folk don’t know when they got it good

Comment on Is climate change a ‘ruin’ problem? by Artifex

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You put your finger on the Taleb’s problem. He assumes the possible existence of a single black swan. It doesn’t take a genius to see that in any random walk with a single “ruin condition”, that is where you are going to end up.

What if we extend his model to make it more accurately reflect the real world ? Instead of a black swan, there is a whole flock of them roosting all over the solution space. Many cures are far worse than the disease. Maybe we avoid the inconvenience of climate change effects and instead get the horrors of authoritarianism, economic collapse or bloody revolution. You have avoided one “ruin” condition only to fall prey to another and likely far worse “ruin condition”. Knowing history, I know where my priors are and what I fear.

Comment on Blog topics discussion thread by Don Monfort

Comment on Blog topics discussion thread by jim2

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