AK,
I agree. My gut feeling is that, globally, less than 5% of electricity is generated off-grid (in Australia it is 6%). But the fact it is such a small proportion is relevant, because it means that, applying the Pareto Principle, if we want to reduce the GHG emissions intensity of electricity, our focus should be on grid-connected generation, not on off-grid technologies. This chart spurred my question:
http://grist.org/climate-energy/a-way-to-get-power-to-the-worlds-poor-without-making-climate-change-worse/
Energy is responsible for 69% of global GHG emissions in 2010 according to IEA (Figure 1) http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/CO2EmissionsFromFuelCombustionHighlights2014.pdf. Electricity and heat generation is responsible for 42% in 2012 (Figure 9). Transport (23%) and Industry (20%) combined are responsible for about the same as electricity
We have proven technologies available to replace fossil fuel electricity generation. The only real problem is the cost. However we do not have proven technologies available to replace fossil fuels from transport or the emissions from industry. Therefore, we can achieve the fastest emissions reductions by replacing fossil fuel technologies for electricity generation with low emissions technologies. (It’s worth noting that programs to improve end-use energy efficiency will have negligible lasting effect; therefore, the effort must be on fuel substitution, not on end-use energy efficiency improvements.)
Most existing fossil fuel electricity generation plants will be replaced over the next 50 years or so. The replacement will be with technologies that are fit for purpose, meet the requirements and are expected to supply electricity at lowest cost over the life of the plant.
Therefore, we don’t need UN sponsored top-down regulations nor any government imposed top-down regulations or mandates to drive the substitution of fossil fuel by low emissions technologies. We just need to reduce the cost of the low-emissions technologies that are proven, fit-for-purpose and meet the requirements. The competitive pressures will do the rest. Thereafter, fossil fuels technologies would be replaced, over time with cheaper fit for purpose technologies without any need for government or UN intervention.
Furthermore, as competitive pressures drive the cost of these technologies down, electricity will become cheaper compared with gas for heating and transport fuels. Therefore, electricity will substitute for some gas for heating and for some petroleum transport fuels. Electricity will be an increasing proportion of total energy consumption. Therefore, making electricity near zero emissions and cheaper could lead to a 40%-50% reduction of GHG emissions from energy in around 50 years.
We need to focus 80% to 90% of our efforts on reducing the cost of electricity from the already proven, fit-for-purpose electricity generation technology.
