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Comment on Week in review – science edition by freeHat

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The lukewarmers commenting on lukewarmers suck ballz. How about you can stay inside the realm of the theory and still have very different, viable views regarding this whole thing.

Simple line of reasoning; Uncertainty within the theory, 1-6 C. trending downwards.With this in mind the heaviness of proposed actions must stem from either the precautionary principle or political goals.

Political goals will be denied so it must be the precautionary principle.

If this is the case then the how cautious should we be is a valid arguing point (Björn Lomborg). Lots of tributaries available in this line of reasoning.

Debate their weakest point first, leaving doubt on things further upstream.


Comment on Week in review – science edition by freeHat

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Sorry that should be the comments not the people themselves :/

Comment on Week in review – science edition by ...and Then There's Physics

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The fact that Stephan Lewandowsky can somehow extract a living with his worthless “scholarship” is an affront to every minute I spend working. The fact that he is commissioned with teaching young people makes me wish for an alien invasion.

Interesting. Your comment would seem to suggest that his research is having some kind of impact, which would then seem to make it interesting. I don’t think I’m aware of many – or any – researchers who do worthless “scholarship” and yet seem to extract such virtiolically heart-felt responses from those who object to what his research suggests. Almost seems like something worth studying in its own right.

Comment on Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2 by JCH

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Is this really Carrick? Just kidding. I think Santer could be right – what he actually said not the blog misinterpretation. About half of 30.

Comment on Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2 by agnostic2015

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You’re kidding surely?

Just because the BBC is following the ‘politically correct’ consensus on climate alarmism, and even then there are voices of dissent on that within its ranks, the BBC is genuinely one of the most effective and positive institutions I can think of over its history, for all it’s manifest faults.

Get rid of the BBC and replace it with what? The Sun? The Daily Mail? News of the World (errr…..well maybe not them)? Channel 4 news is even more alarmist in its coverage of climate change than the BBC. Nor are any of the commercial broadcasters in the Uk truly fully commercial, if divestment from public money is what you might deem best.

The BBC do a lot more than just news you know. They have been the biggest cultural driving force in the Uk (and around the world) for generations. You wouldn’t have had Monty Python without the BBC, Blackadder, Dr Who, Teletubbies, Top Gear, and a myriad other innovative content largely copied by commercial broadcasters as they benefit from the laboratory the BBC’s mandate directs them to be.

I could give you a long long list of their faults, disasters, stupidities, and frustrations, many of which I have personally been on the receiving end of (I work in the film and TV industry), but compared to the relative good it does it pales into insignificance.

Comment on Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2 by agnostic2015

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Dominate what variability?

The “overall” variability? So by that are you saying that natural variability just cancels itself out over periods of 30 years? So there is no natural variability longer than that, say over 100 years? Or 500 to 1000?

The problem I have is that the case for alarm is predicated on the effect CO2 has on relatively short time scales, whereby adaption is difficult, which is what the models were telling us. So if more than 95% of models don’t agree with observations, the underlying assumptions used in their construction must either be incorrect, or incomplete.

Comment on Week in review – science edition by JCH

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A month or so ago I was told right here the little down slope you've found was the beginning of global cooling. I suggested it was just the <a href="http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst3gl/from:2011/to/trend/plot/hadsst3gl/from:2011" rel="nofollow">seasonal cycle, and</a> <a href="http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst3gl/from:2014/to/trend/plot/hadsst3gl/from:2014" rel="nofollow">that the current heat wave would continue.</a> Anything else you wanna teach me?

Comment on Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2 by foias

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Banking analogies

This comment is mostly to assist me as I grapple with 21st century technology! However, a possibly useful analogy is the daily interbank market where tens of trillions of dollars etc of deposits are traded (‘churned’). There are comparatively tiny injections of external capital (billions) into the system each day. In the course of a day’s business, banks will create new assets (loans) which typically will lead to new deposits (bank liabilities). How much of these new deposits can be attributed to the tiny external capital injections (anthro CO2) and how much to internal banking activity (natural CO2)? Someone might know the answers, but they are not telling.


Comment on Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2 by Ferdinand Engelbeen

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Judith,

Indeed Bart and I have a long standing (already years) dispute about the influence of temperature on the trend of CO2 in the atmosphere. According to Bart, all rise is caused by the small temperature rise of 0.6°C since 1960. According to me that is impossible: the long term increase based on ice cores, but also on Henry’s law (no matter if that is static or dynamic) is 4-17 ppmv/°C for a change in temperature from one steady state to the next. Thus the increase in temperature since 1960 is good for ~5 ppmv increase, that is all.
The main problem with Bart’s approach is that he sees the variability and increase in CO2 rate of change as caused by the same process. That is proven wrong: the short term variability is the influence of temperature variations on (tropical forests), as can be seen in the opposite CO2 and δ13C changes. The long term increase is NOT the result of vegetation: that is a net, increasing sink over time, the earth is greening… Different, independent processes at work.
Further, a fixed, continuous CO2 increase caused by a small sustained temperature offset from an arbitrary base is impossible without a negative feedback from the increased CO2 pressure in the atmosphere…

Comment on Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2 by Don Monfort

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The glory is in the past. The future is crapola. Rest on the laurels. End it now!

Comment on Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2 by Don Monfort

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Amen, brother Ferdinand! End of story! Barty is stuffed! What was Judith thinking?

Fin.

Comment on Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2 by Ferdinand Engelbeen

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Judith,

About ice cores, there is a good overview of the Law Dome record and its gas age distribution at:
http://courses.washington.edu/proxies/GHG.pdf

Ice core CO2 is accurate to +/- 1.2 ppmv (1 sigma) for repeated samples of the same part of an ice core up to +/- 5 ppmv for different ice cores with extreme differences in snow accumulation and temperature.
The resolution of ice cores is less than a decade over the past 150 years (2 drillings at Law Dome), via 20 year over the past 1,000 years (Law Dome, downslope) to 560 years for the past 800,000 years (Dome C).

There is no measurable migration in the extreme cold inland ice cores, but there may be some theoretical migration in relative “warm” coastal cores. That gives a broadening of the resolution e.g. in the Siple Dome ice core from 20 to 22 years at medium depth and from 20 to 40 years at full depth (~70,000 years back in time).

Ice core CO2 are direct, be it smoothed measurements of ancient CO2 levels. Their main drawback is that the resolution worsens with the lower snow accumulation rate, but that allows to go further back in time. Another problem is to find out the exact timing between the age of the ice and the average age of the enclosed air.

Stomata data are proxies which have all the problems inherent on proxies: they grow locally on land, where there is a variable bias against “background” CO2 levels. That can be compensated by calibrating the stomata (index) data against direct measurements and ice cores over the past century. The main problem is that there is no guarantee that the local bias didn’t change over the centuries due to huge changes in land use, locally and in the main wind direction, over the centuries…

Thus if the stomata data give a different average CO2 level over the period of resolution of any ice core, the stomata data are certainly wrong…

BTW, your first reference mentioned Jaworowski, not the most reliable person about CO2 in ice cores:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/jaworowski.html

Comment on Week in review – science edition by cerescokid

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Jim D

I see a blossoming cottage industry in your future. It is called Rent-A-Theory. Within a decade the pause will have everybody talkin’ and scientists will be running out of excuses and they will be in the market for imaginative and unique theories on what went wrong.

I’m sure there are some Angel investors out there who can see the potential for great returns. And then comes the IPO and you ringing the bell at the NYSE. It’s all about seeing the future with clarity.

Comment on Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2 by Ferdinand Engelbeen

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Gymnosperm,

We know the balance of the whole biosphere (land and sea plants, bacteria, molds, insects, animals) together: slightly more sink than source. That can be deduced from the oxygen balance: slightly less oxygen is used than is calculated from fossil fuel burning. The whole biosphere together is a net producer of oxygen, thus a net sink for CO2 and preferentially of 12CO2:
http://www.bowdoin.edu/~mbattle/papers_posters_and_talks/BenderGBC2005.pdf

Thus the biosphere as a whole is not the cause of the CO2 increase in the atmosphere or the δ13C decline in atmosphere and ocean surface.

It doesn’t make sense to single out one part of a cycle, the net result of the total cycle is what changes the CO2 (and δ13C) level in the atmosphere. The only exception is human emissions, which are one-way additional…

Comment on Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2 by stevefitzpatrick

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Don Monfort,

You may be right about the mental block. I sure don’t have any other explanation. This entire crazy thread seems to have been transferred in its entirety form WUWT. ‘Weird’ is not a strong enough adjective. I though one could avoid such crazy stuff on this blog…. I was mistaken about that.


Comment on Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2 by Ferdinand Engelbeen

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PA, human emissions are slightly quadratic increasing over time, which shows up in the near-linear increase of dCO2(em)/dt over time. The net result is that both the increase in the atmosphere as the net sink capacity also increases slightly quadratic over time and thus dCO2(atm)/dt and dCO2(sinks)/dt are quite linear over time.

As long as human emissions are increasing in the same way, there may be never a catch up of the sinks and the “airborne fraction” would remain about the same. Of course, as long as production can follow demand…

Comment on Week in review – science edition by andywest2012

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@fizzymagic

Actually, bias, even chronic bias and desperate need to avoid cognitive dissonance, is domain orientated. Lewandowsky’s work from a while back and outside the climate domain, seems reasonable; is also v much more mainstream and so far less edgy and high profile. For instance, a string of papers with other authors about cognitive bias effects is very useful, because all these effects can be demonstrated to exist within the climate Consensus, showing that it can only be massively biased! The series below at WUWT explains this in some detail:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/06/wrapped-in-lew-papers-the-psychology-of-climate-psychologization-part1/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/08/wrapped-in-lew-papers-the-psychology-of-climate-psychologization-part2/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/09/wrapped-in-lew-papers-the-psychology-of-climate-psychologization-part3/

The advantage of demonstrating huge Consensus bias using papers from avid promoters of CAGW, is that no-one can possibly accuse the source references of containing skeptic bias!

Comment on Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2 by jim2

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Yep, and we are still waiting on the IPCC to make their case.

Comment on Week in review – science edition by peter3172

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So, a month later, you decide to use the same stoopid argument yourself

Comment on Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2 by ...and Then There's Physics

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BA,

…is always on the people who make the claims. If no proof is provided for the claim, then the claim is just that.

You seem to think that there is some kind of default position that others need to prove wrong? It is natural until proven otherwise? It doesn’t work like that in the physical sciences. A fundamental part of the physical sciences is explaining the physical processes behind what we observe. We don’t start from some assumption of knowledge that we prove wrong. We might start with a hypothesis that we test, but that doesn’t mean that what we choose first has some precedence over what comes later.

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