Let me introduce Ostrom’s 8 principles.
http://www.onthecommons.org/magazine/elinor-ostroms-8-principles-managing-commmons
Comment on A global ‘Iriai’ in place of the ecomodernist neologism by Chief Hydrologist
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Comment on What can we do about climate change? by jacobress
+1
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Comment on A global ‘Iriai’ in place of the ecomodernist neologism by Mike Flynn
Chaos seems to pop up in many areas.
Capitalism exhibits chaos. Markets exhibit chaos. Democracy exhibits symptoms of chaos. Systems of governments, in general, don’t endure, regardless of their nominal classification. Attempts to control economies, populations, or Nature, for any reasonable period of time, have universally ended in failure, to date.
Just a thought. This might help to explain why, just when you think you have everything under control, it falls apart.
Chasing utopia is a fun hobby, I guess!
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Comment on A global ‘Iriai’ in place of the ecomodernist neologism by Chief Hydrologist
We have started to wonder how low they can go. The economy is traditionally either mining or housing. Mining contracted a couple of years ago.
There is a nice little housing bubble though. The dollar is nicely deflating – which discourages both saving and consumer spending and which brings a flight to solid assets. A well as making exports more competitive.
Exports to China are about 10% of our economy – what with their immense building overhang the salad days are over for the time being. One of the other problems is that we spent a decade plus getting government budgets under control and that was undone in a flash by progressive governments – although not near enough to tempt us to QE.
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Comment on What can we do about climate change? by jacobress
Solar energy is available only 10-19% of the time (depending on local climate). That is the average capacity factor of the millions of solar panels installed already. This is a fact that will not change with time or progress.
Therefore solar energy is not suited for electricity supply, which is needed continuously, 24/7. This is not a matter of cost or economics. This is a physical fact.
It is conceivable that, in the future, technological progress will enable us to use solar energy to produce some kind of fuel, maybe syngas, that can be stored. In that case solar energy will be useful.
The many millions of solar panels installed already today are a total waste of money, they are totally useless. In the few hours that they do produce some energy, we need to have other power plants in hot stand-by, burning fuel, to be able to supply electricity when the sun sets or a cloud obscures it.
Will we be able to use solar energy in the future? Maybe. We still don’t posses the technology to do that now.
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Comment on What can we do about climate change? by jacobress
Many people love taxes (that is love to impose them on others), because that’s what they are able to do. Imposing taxes is easy. Producing renewable energy is hard. So, since it’s imperative do “do something” to save mankind, right now! – they do what they can – impose taxes – and hope that other, more able people – engineers and scientists (but not climate scientists), will solve all problems.
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Comment on A global ‘Iriai’ in place of the ecomodernist neologism by Chief Hydrologist
Emergence, order, self-organisation, turbulence, induction, evolution, criticality, adaptive, non-linear, non-equilibrium are some of the words that characterise the conceptual underpinnings of the ‘new’ sciences of complexity that seem to pervade some of the frontiers in the natural, social and even the human sciences. Not since the heyday of Cybernetics and the more recent brief-lived ebullience of chaos applied to a theory of everything and by all and sundry, has a concept become so prevalent and pervasive in almost all fields, from Physics to Economics, from Biology to Sociology, from Computer Science to Philosophy as Complexity seems to have become.’
ECONOMICS AND THE COMPLEXITY VISION: CHIMERICAL PARTNERS OR ELYSIAN ADVENTURERS? Kumaraswamy Velupillai
Although Elinor Ostrom would have called it applying messy solutions to complex problems of people in the environment.
ENSO is a major of temperature and hydrological variability in the world.
Moy et al (2002) present the record of sedimentation shown above which is strongly influenced by ENSO variability. It is based on the presence of more or less red sediment in a lake core. More sedimentation is associated with El Niño. It has continuous high resolution coverage over 11,000 years. It shows periods of high and low ENSO activity alternating with a period of about 2,000 years. There was a shift from La Niña dominance to El Niño dominance some 5,00 years ago that was identified by Tsonis 2009 as a chaotic bifurcation – and is associated with the drying of the Sahel. There is a period around 3,500 years ago of high ENSO activity associated with the demise of the Minoan civilisation (Tsonis et al, 2010). Red intensity was in excess of 200. For comparison, red intensity in the 1997/98 El Niño was 99. It shows ENSO variability considerably in excess of that seen in the modern period.
The objective is not to control nature – or to imagine utopias – but to build societies and economies sufficiently resilient to rebound from whatever nature throws at us.
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Comment on What can we do about climate change? by jacobress
They have imposed a tax or rather a cap&trade scheme in Europe (ETS) about a decade ago. Wouldn’t it be nice to check on their results? Who has achieved the biggest reduction in emissions since then? The “taxless” US.
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Comment on A global ‘Iriai’ in place of the ecomodernist neologism by vukcevic
Hi Chief
As an old regular let me welcome you to the Bore Hole
Comment by Chief Hydrologist — 19 May 2015 @ 2:34 PM
Comment by vukcevic — 20 May 2015 @ 5:08 PM
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Comment on A global ‘Iriai’ in place of the ecomodernist neologism by krmmtoday
As for the nuts and bolts I want to point to Clark et.al. Lessons in Ecologic Policy Design https://books.google.de/books?id=C0q7hXOGuY8C&pg=PA331&lpg=PA331&dq=holling+lessons+for+ecological+policy+design+a+case+study+in+ecosystem+management&source=bl&ots=6TAAUrA97B&sig=LlArbzB8rjMNtWjGAKq6HQX9GXI&hl=en&sa=X&ei=OIZdVerbEsGvygP5-4A4&ved=0CDMQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q=holling%20lessons%20for%20ecological%20policy%20design%20a%20case%20study%20in%20ecosystem%20management&f=false
Some more in the book.
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Comment on A global ‘Iriai’ in place of the ecomodernist neologism by fernandoleanme
Chief, I don’t see why 2 and 3 are mutually exclusive. The response could be a hybrid, with gradually building oscillations which get dampened in time. Intuitively, I tend to think the system is dampened, which explains why the temperature has been relatively stable for such a long time. This planet sure turned out just about right.
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Comment on What can we do about climate change? by Mike Flynn
jacobpress,
I’ve got an idea. We use trees to gather and concentrate solar energy. Then we release the concentrated solar energy by burning the trees, and use the resultant heat to produce electricity, and the CO2 to feed more trees.
After we run out of trees, we might be able to tap the solar energy trapped by Nature in the form of coal, oil, and gas.
Or maybe just use the coal, oil, and gas, and save a great deal of effort. I like trees. Why burn them if we don’t have to? Turning coal, oil, and gas into more trees sounds good to me. And electrical power as a side benefit!
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Comment on A global ‘Iriai’ in place of the ecomodernist neologism by krmmtoday
With respect to the somewhere up mentioned question of violence, there’s news from Taleb http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nassim-taleb-on-the-black-swans-of-war-194841536.html;_ylt=AwrC1ChCiF1VoloAAgqTmYlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTByMDgyYjJiBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMyBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzYw–
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Comment on A global ‘Iriai’ in place of the ecomodernist neologism by krmmtoday
The paper from Taleb
http://fooledbyrandomness.com/violence.pdf
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Comment on A global ‘Iriai’ in place of the ecomodernist neologism by climatereason
Vuk
Yes, you and the Chief are practically permanent residents at the Bore Hole. As is Matthew Marler.
Wear residency as a badge of honour.
tonyb
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Comment on A global ‘Iriai’ in place of the ecomodernist neologism by hillrj
Is it possible that CH is describing Switzerland, writ large?
I’d like to read his comments about the Swiss approach to environmental, social, and political problems.
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Comment on A global ‘Iriai’ in place of the ecomodernist neologism by Chief Hydrologist
Ellison, There is no such thing as “complexity theory” apart from the sense of algorithmic complexity in the computational sciences. ENSO does not arise because of any notions of “complexity theory”.
You continue to add FUD to the discussion by making all these pretentious statements that when it comes down to it are simply laughable.
Comment by WebNutColonoscope — 17 May 2015 @ 10:52 AM
So named for his characteristic stance. This from the smurf who had a global Bose-Einstein meltdown and hasn’t been seen here since.
Let me google that for you Colonoscope – http://lmgtfy.com/?q=complexity+science
in the globally resonant system.
Do these words mean anything? I’d ask for a cite, but I’ve watched this dance play out on many blogs over several years. If you’d got something publishable, somewhere, written up, why would you keep flogblogging the basic message, which appears to be we don’t know, we can’t know, and we shouldn’t spend any money to stop burning fossil carbon. I think that sums up the message, eh?
Comment by Hank Roberts — 18 May 2015 @ 9:55 AM
I provided dozens of ‘cites’ of course – in comments each more polite than the other – certainly much more polite than the drivel from Hank and Sou – each comment relentlessly disappearing.
I had no idea that this travesty of open discourse was occurring. They are a collective disgrace to science. Their minions are ignorant toads with nothing but puffed up inanities, lies and calumny to buttress their intellectual ineptitude. .
I have given them 24 hours to remove my comments or I will sue for breach of copyright at the very least.
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Comment on A global ‘Iriai’ in place of the ecomodernist neologism by Chief Hydrologist
‘Why do some countries experience civil war and others don’t? Is it to do with political systems, perhaps ethnic or religious tensions? Perhaps a more important question is what needs to be put in place so civil war does not happen in the first place?
According to the 2014 Index of Economic Freedom Australia rates third behind Hong Kong and Singapore. New Zealand is ranked at 5, Canada at 6 and Denmark rounds out the top 10. All of the countries in the top 10 are considered to be Free. They are all also peaceful. A new study has found that higher levels of economic freedom can help reduce the risk of violent conflict. That if peace is more profitable than war then peace wins out. It all comes down to the pursuit of self interest.’ http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/counterpoint/free-markets-and-civil-peace/5671116
There is a link to the paper. Some societies are less violent – and we can correlate to markets and democracy.
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Comment on A global ‘Iriai’ in place of the ecomodernist neologism by Chief Hydrologist
Let’s consider that it works the other way – with the biggest fluctuations at tipping points.
‘We develop the concept of “dragon-kings” corresponding to meaningful outliers, which are found to coexist with power laws in the distributions of event sizes under a broad range of conditions in a large variety of systems. These dragon-kings reveal the existence of mechanisms of self-organization that are not apparent otherwise from the distribution of their smaller siblings… We emphasize the importance of understanding dragon-kings as being often associated with a neighborhood of what can be called equivalently a phase transition, a bifurcation, a catastrophe (in the sense of Rene Thom), or a tipping point. ‘ http://arxiv.org/abs/0907.4290
And slowing down as an early warning signal of the next shift.
‘In the Earth’s history, periods of relatively stable climate have often been interrupted by sharp transitions to a contrasting state. One explanation for such events of abrupt change is that they happened when the earth system reached a critical tipping point. However, this remains hard to prove for events in the remote past, and it is even more difficult to predict if and when we might reach a tipping point for abrupt climate change in the future. Here, we analyze eight ancient abrupt climate shifts and show that they were all preceded by a characteristic slowing down of the fluctuations starting well before the actual shift. Such slowing down, measured as increased autocorrelation, can be mathematically shown to be a hallmark of tipping points. ‘ http://www.pnas.org/content/105/38/14308.full
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Comment on A global ‘Iriai’ in place of the ecomodernist neologism by Chief Hydrologist
I had a brief glance. Very early in my career the serial discontinuity concept in rivers. It helps to recognize a serial discontinuity when you see it – and understand what it does to local assemblages and why. I was very interested in lake eutrophication and the reasons for sudden shifts in state.
I was very interested in nutrient cycling in the photic zone in open oceans.
If we want to conserve aquatic and marine ecological communities we need to know where and how the pressures and discontinuities are manifesting and to design mitigation strategies. Sometimes it is as easy as using recycled sewage to irrigate golf courses while using the restoring the rough as endangered squatter pigeon habitat.
Cheers
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