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Comment on Week in review – science edition by David Wojick

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Does this mean it is okay that the AGW indoctrination only starts at age 11?


Comment on Week in review – science edition by jim2

Comment on Week in review – science edition by jim2

Comment on Week in review – science edition by jim2

Comment on Week in review – science edition by beththeserf

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Sort of a nature trick, a ‘noble ‘ lie, but it’s all
in a good cause.

Comment on Week in review – science edition by Jim D

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AK, yes, that plot shows it. Take the 20 highest insolation peaks and see how they correspond to warmer peaks. It is not just coincidence. On the flip side, declining periods correspond to none of these peaks. The odds are 1 in 2^20, about 1 in a million, that this is chance.

Comment on Week in review – energy, water & food edition by jim2

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The price of oil is notoriously difficult to predict. It is subject to fundamental supply and demand forces of course, but also to techological, meteorlogical, and political forces; confounding price prediction.

Now, due to Obumbles idyotik (lack of) policy in the Middle East, ISIS now threatens a good portion of the worlds supply of oil.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102719753

Oil is still around $60. The Saudis have embarked on a fight for market share which has halved their incoming money. Other producing countries are ramping up oil production as they can – a losing proposition for all. The rig count went down again this week, after it appeared to stabilize the week before. The dollar resumed its upward march, putting downward pressure on the price. The contango languishes around $2, somewhat favoring oil to storage, but still no backwardation which would signal aggressive buying of current production.

Inventories are down:
https://marketrealist.imgix.net/uploads/2015/05/US-Crude-inv2.png?w=780&fit=max&auto=format

US Production is up:
https://marketrealist.imgix.net/uploads/2015/05/crude-prod.png?w=780&fit=max&auto=format

Comment on Week in review – energy, water & food edition by jim2

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Charts one more time:

Storage:

Production:


Comment on Week in review – science edition by beththeserf

Comment on Week in review – energy, water & food edition by jim2

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Also, gasoline production has ramped up for the Summer driving season. Once fall arrives, inventories could even climb and WTI prices go down.

Comment on Week in review – energy, water & food edition by fernandoleanme

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Captain, you wrote “That is pretty much why solar will make its biggest splash in third world and off grid applications.”

I’ve lived or worked in a few dozen third world locations, and visited a wide range of cities, towns, hamlets, camps, army bases….enough to give me a fair idea of how people live, and what they like to have. And to be honest, I can’t figure out why so many people think third world inhabitants can live with interruptible/unreliable power. I suspect many just think the third world’s typical inhabitant lives like Tarzan?

Comment on Week in review – science edition by jim2

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Beth, for some reason you bring to mind Kim. Do you know anything?

Comment on Week in review – science edition by rhhardin

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Are we unnecessarily constraining the agility of complex process-based models?

They’re recommending a fatal mistake. Parameters turn the model into a curve-fitter.

Has anybody done Kalman filtering? It tells you, as data comes in, how to adjust parameters to account for all past information as well as the new information. It’s used for tracking objects with radars and a thousand other things. If you add parameters, it adjusts them too, and fits the data even better.

But it’s nothing but least squares fitting factored into a useful dynamic form.

If the underlying parameters (radars might use position, velocity, drag coefficient, thrust) are realistic things, it works. You can use the values to project where the object is going to be later.

If they’re not realistic but just added on speculation, they make predictions worse while makeing past matches better.

When the model is dominated by speculative parameters, it turns into nonsense.

Comment on Week in review – energy, water & food edition by fernandoleanme

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Rud, I left them a comment under the article about natural gas. I tried to be kind and polite, but as you write, they don’t seem to know much about the issue.

Comment on Week in review – energy, water & food edition by PA

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http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20928053.600-fossil-fuels-are-far-deadlier-than-nuclear-power.html#.VWsUrULaxhE

Yet again, popular perceptions are wrong. When, in 1975, about 30 dams in central China failed in short succession due to severe flooding, an estimated 230,000 people died. Include the toll from this single event, and fatalities from hydropower far exceed the number of deaths from all other energy sources.

Nuclear is the safest form of energy. The few deaths mostly come from mining. Using used fuel would cut deaths to virtually zero.


Comment on Week in review – energy, water & food edition by fernandoleanme

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If we are past what tipping point? I was glad to see PA explain we are running out of fossil fuels. My own estimate of peak co2 is 630 ppm, but the peak is a function of the economy’s ability to accept high energy prices, as well as population growth and the ability to build replacement energy sources.

I give this a lot of thought, and lately I’ve concluded the best option is to throw the kitchen sink at the combined problems. This includes action to slow down population growth, develop nuclear, get renewables to take up a reasonable amount of the load, and encourage efficiency measures.

Comment on Week in review – energy, water & food edition by David Wojick

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If you want a complete transition to all nuclear that is just ridiculous.

Comment on Week in review – science edition by beththeserf

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Jim, sometimes kim comments at The Bishop Hill.

Comment on Week in review – science edition by AK

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@Jim D…

Sorry, I just don’t see it. All I see is some hints that solar “forcing” might be involved in some of the process(es). But it’s very clear that there’s no direct connection.

For my money, the hypothesis that the Milankovitch cycles “explain” the Pleistocene glaciation is really only defensible as a “last-ditch” when no other good explanation exists. But one does: natural internal variation.

My best guess is that Wunsch is right: there is some involvement, but most of the timing and extent appears “stochastic”: “random” WRT the Milankovitch cycles.

Comment on Week in review – energy, water & food edition by jim2

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fernando – can you do all that without a world level totalitarian government?

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