thomaswfuller2 | July 22, 2015 at 12:55 am |
Hiya TE,
Comparing trends of total pop to working age pop is not going to lead to enlightenment. China’s population is actually still growing, as is their income and the migration of people from electricity free villages to the cities.
They’re building 346 coal plants now. There’s a reason.
Let’s see. Is that a fact or a factoid.
China has 620 coal plants that produce 3785 TWh from 758 GWe of capacity. Gross electric production was 4994 GWh in 2012. They have closed 71 GWe of coal capacity since 2006. All 4 of the major Beijing coal plants will have been shut down and replaced with gas by next year. 150GWe of nuclear planned by 2030 (Wiki says 200 GWe installed 2030 and 400 GWe installed 2050).
The average coal power station (758/620) is about 1220 GWe. China likes to build 500-600 GWe coal plants (and seem to have a taste for nuclear in the same size) so presumably the bulk of their power stations are twin plants. The coal plant capacity factor 57% (they get over 87% from nuclear). The 200 GWe of nuclear in 2030 is the equivalent of 305 GWe of coal generation.
China supposedly is going to add 1,583 GWe of generation by 2030. Half is supposed to be renewable. 150 GW is going to be nuclear. 346 coal plants represents about 208 GWe of coal generation which leaves 434 GWe which will be a mix of things but mostly gas.
The current 74% coal fired generation is expected to drop to 55% by 2030. If the 346 new plants are twin generation facilities they will be a little over, if they are 600 GWe plants they will be significantly under. 55%.
Don’t know – depends on how many coal plants they retire but at the current rate of coal plant retirement it isn’t going to be that big a difference. They are adding about as much nuclear as coal.
