Jim D | July 30, 2015 at 8:44 pm |
PA, you don’t need models. Observations show a correlation near 0.9 for CO2 and temperature. This should be made use of for projections even if you don’t believe in models.
Why thats nice. However we know that 22 PPM caused a 0.2 W/m2 change in downwelling radiation. Or a forcing coefficient of 3.46 (not 5.35) or 1.05 W/m2 since 1900.
Thats why I’m look at albedo studies. UHI/Land use will manifest itself as two effects:
1 Lower albedo.
2. An increase in sensible heat and a decrease in foolish heat.
Comparing the urban sites to nearby virgin wilderness would provide assurance the change in the heat balance was local. Comparing urban to rural areas to estimate UHI is absurd. You have to compare urban areas to virgin wilderness.
The sum of the two effects (albedo and heat loss) I believe is greater than the GHG forcing influence mostly due to CO2, but is going to have a similar trend.
Someone has to have done a study of this, it is just too frickin’ obvious.