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Comment on Assessments, meta-analyses, discussion and peer review by PA

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Jim D | July 30, 2015 at 8:44 pm |
PA, you don’t need models. Observations show a correlation near 0.9 for CO2 and temperature. This should be made use of for projections even if you don’t believe in models.

Why thats nice. However we know that 22 PPM caused a 0.2 W/m2 change in downwelling radiation. Or a forcing coefficient of 3.46 (not 5.35) or 1.05 W/m2 since 1900.

Thats why I’m look at albedo studies. UHI/Land use will manifest itself as two effects:
1 Lower albedo.
2. An increase in sensible heat and a decrease in foolish heat.

Comparing the urban sites to nearby virgin wilderness would provide assurance the change in the heat balance was local. Comparing urban to rural areas to estimate UHI is absurd. You have to compare urban areas to virgin wilderness.

The sum of the two effects (albedo and heat loss) I believe is greater than the GHG forcing influence mostly due to CO2, but is going to have a similar trend.

Someone has to have done a study of this, it is just too frickin’ obvious.


Comment on Microgrids and “Clean” Energy by erikemagnuson

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Rud, an MSEE from USC is a lot more impressive than a degree from Cal Tech with respect to Electric Power Systems engineering. A bachelors from Ohio State ain’t bad either, very few people have contributed as much to the electric industry as B. G. Lamme – though Lamme’s tenure at Ohio State was in the 1880’s.

Springer, as someone who has taken a few power systems courses at Cal (though haven’t worked for any utility), it is obvious that PE has had a lot of experience in electric utilities and thus highly qualified on the subject matter. It’s been my experience that most of the renewable energy advocates have very little idea, let alone experience, of what it takes to keep a power grid running.

Speaking of grids, the whole point of having a large interconnected grid was to provide both a diversity of generation and a diversity of load. One of the earliest examples of micro grids were associated with electric railways (streetcars, elevated, subway and interurban) and these suffered from expensive power due to the poor load factor of the generating plant. By the 1920’s, most of these railways gave up on generating their own power as it was cheaper to buy it from the local utility.

Comment on Microgrids and “Clean” Energy by stefanthedenier

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I posted this over at Energy Matters, you won’t find the BBC or MSM reporting this stuff.
Snow on Mauna Kea Hawaii
Snow in South Africa
80Cm of Snow in Chile
Hail in Dakota
Heavy Snow and very cold in Argentina
Frost in the USA and Europe
Cold causing extra cases of Pnuemonia in Peru
Very Cold in North Vietnam
Snow in Papua & Indonesia
Cold in Japan
Snow in Bolivia, 75,000 cattle at risk
Heaviest Snowfall in Peru in years kills 171,850 Alpaca.
Snow in California.
Record cold in Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana and Michigan, records broken by as much as 10 degrees F not by 10ths of a degree like the hot temps.
Heavy snowfall in Vorkuta, Russia
Shanghai – Lowest temperature in 145 years

Comment on Microgrids and “Clean” Energy by brentns1

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Why California’s Solar Power Could Soon Be Curtailed

Cal-ISO ran a simulation about what might happen when renewable energy is producing more than 33 percent of the states’ power, a moment that is projected to happen in 2024. In that case, the state will be overproducing electricity about 822 hours in a year, or about 10 percent of the time
http://www.psmag.com/nature-and-technology/why-californias-solar-power-could-soon-be-curtailed

Sounds like the California “microgrid” is going to increasingly rely on interconnects (eg like Denmark). Adjoining utilities need to think carefully about the extent to which it is to their benefit to import grid destabilization from Cal.

Giant in the Country
http://www.psmag.com/nature-and-technology/how-a-conservative-billionaire-is-moving-heaven-and-earth-to-become-the-biggest-alternative-energy-giant-in-the-country

Comment on Hansen’s backfire by PA

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http://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2011/01/04/132622672/could-it-be-spooky-experiments-that-see-the-future
http://dbem.ws/FeelingFuture.pdf

Dr. Bem has done a number of experiments with two that seem to indicate a bleed through from the future into the current reality (retroactive influence).

If there really is something to this you could do a couple of iterations of the experiment concentrating the “winners” and should be able to get something really significant.

He also has an insight on why psychology has so few “psi” test successes. 34% of psychologists disbelieve in psi vs about 2% of the population.

I’ve noticed that studies that try to reproduce his experiments deviate in ways that would dilute the effect (much like NASA tests reactionless thrusters at about 1/1000th of their designed power levels).

I’m somewhat concerned that the scientific community suffers from a mental illness or defect that inhibits them from “reproducing” an experiment by exactly reproducing an experiment.

Comment on Microgrids and “Clean” Energy by PA

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This seems to have been obvious to PlanningEngineer et. al. (the people with grid power experience) from the get-go. The duck curve and so forth got a lot of discussion.

People with more academic than practical experience were the reality deniers.

For an asset that is entirely fixed up front cost, when you can only use 2/3rds of its output, that output is 50% more expensive.

But it is California and they have money to burn. They must because they keep burning it. If I was a border state, they would have to sell their excess power to me for almost free. Why pay for power that is by definition being generated at the wrong time?

Comment on Assessments, meta-analyses, discussion and peer review by Peter Davies

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JCH rates a +1 for irony.

Comment on Microgrids and “Clean” Energy by Peter Lang

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Planning Enginneer,

Thank you for your excellent response to David Springer. I really appreciate your involvement in blogging here at CE. You provide policy relevant information that is rarely explained as you do. And I recognise you are doing that for the benefit of educating people, not for any personal reward – and even perhaps at some risk o yourself. So thank you enormously for your contributions. I hope you can continue to provide posts and comments on threads.


Comment on Microgrids and “Clean” Energy by jim2

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I second what Peter said. Valuable are your posts and comments, PE.

Comment on Assessments, meta-analyses, discussion and peer review by JCH

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<a href="http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:2011/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2012/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2013/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2014/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2011" rel="nofollow">wave goodbye to the stadium wave; say hello to the kickbutt ACO2 control knob</a>

Comment on Microgrids and “Clean” Energy by Peter Lang

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You missed the snow in Australia – it extended right up to Queensland (semi tropical).

Comment on Assessments, meta-analyses, discussion and peer review by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.3

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JimD, “captd, no, VP had a residual natural variation of about 0.1 C with about a 60 year time scale, and he only got a millikelvin left after removing that small variation.”

VP’s filter was about 22 years wide to remove the solar cycle so his end point basically didn’t include the pause years. So, in another 5 to 10 years we can extend his model and see how skillful it might be.

Now his SAW is the unexplained. You can guess that it is AMO/PDO/ENSO or Mickey Mouse, but since it is pseudo-cyclic it isn’t all that easy to nail down.

A weakly damped recovery curve is just as valid an explanation, actually better IMO. and a lot more entertaining.

Now since we were on CO2 correlation, would you expect CO2 to have a higher correlation with ERSSTv4, BEST Tmax or BEST Tmin? Which of those three should ln(CO2) have the strongest influence on? Would ERSSTv4 correlate better than v3 or HADSST? There are lots of way to test your faith er.. theory.

Comment on Assessments, meta-analyses, discussion and peer review by JCH

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In accounting Ragnaar will sometimes annualize an interest rate. So let’s “decadalize” this:

.056 per year over a 54 month span is .56 per decade, or… 2.8 times the IPCC rate of .2C per decade.

.095 oer year over the last 18 months is .95 per decade, or… 4.75 times the IPCC rate of .2C per year.

So my theory is wrong. I’ll take wrong. Lol.

Comment on Microgrids and “Clean” Energy by Canman

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PA @July 30, 2015 1:08pm, it’s not clear what those pie charts represents. Is it microgrid cogeneration or total electricity generation, US or world?

I may not of looked hard enough, but I couldn’t find those two charts at: http://www.c2es.org/

Comment on Microgrids and “Clean” Energy by jim2


Comment on Microgrids and “Clean” Energy by jim2

Comment on Microgrids and “Clean” Energy by jim2

Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by Danny Thomas

Comment on Microgrids and “Clean” Energy by jim2

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Figure 5: Existing Cogeneration Capacity by Application[25]

Comment on Microgrids and “Clean” Energy by jim2

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Figure 6: Existing Cogeneration Sites by System Type[26]

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