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Comment on Update on the Spencer & Braswell paper by Bryan

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Joel Shore
Ive just been reading some early history of thermodynamics.
The belief in the caloric theory was almost universal , even Carnot subscribed to it.
It wasn’t a stupid theory.
It explained a lot of observable phenomena.
Count Rumford and the mechanical equivalent of heat must have seemed like “vodoo science” when first aired.

However the greenhouse theory has almost no facts to back it up!

You say
” However, the temperature of the surface is due to greenhouse gases.”

Instead of being at 255K the surface is at 288K because of greenhouse gases.
On a dry cloudless day with still air (little or no convection) then CO2 making up 0.037% of the atmosphere accumplises this herculean feat.

It does…….. if you believe in fairy tales.

Instead Postma points out the Earth surface which at 30C overall sun facing average is responsible.
The solar energy is retained in the surface and oceans and atmosphere by several mechanisms.
The thermodynamically derived lapse rate gives the temperature profile at some point on the troposphere the equivalent radiation level to space is to be found.
It seems possible to have a rational discussion on whether more CO2 would have a significant effect or not .
These discussions are usually labelled the TOA effect and your paper briefly touched on this point.

However you gray slab model is preposterous and should be ditched it does not have the more useful aspects of say the caloric theory to excuse it.
I read a quote by Ray Pierrehumbert and it would seem he is closer to Postmas model than to your gray slab nonsense.

You say that G&T were claiming that a theory that has been around for a century violates the Second Law when it doesn’t is a very big mistake.
There are some greenhouse theories that describe the atmosphere as being like a heat pump.
For instance Nullis in Verba has such ideas and perhaps also Nick Stokes.
Nobody is daft enough to say of course that their own pet theory violates the second law.
Some people like Halpern et al by a clumsy use of language have inadvertently contradicted the second law.

Whose fault is it that G&T accepted that when you said heat can travel spontaneously from a cold object to a hotter object that you really meant it.

You say
“Another important question is whether one acknowledges, corrects and learns from one’s mistakes.”
Very commendable
So you intend to write to IJMP to correct your paper.
I think that your reputation with the readership would be improved.

In pages 1317 to 1321 you reject the influence of gravity on the temperature profile of the troposphere this is despite the DALR formula being -g/Cp
You say
“The notion that somehow gravity determines the surface temperature doesn’t even satisfy the 1st Law of Thermodynamics, i.e., it violates conservation of energy.”
It influences the temperature profile, is what I said.
Real physics, as opposed to grey slab nonsense
The solar contribution, lapse rate and radiative emissions to space are the major factors that determine the temperature profile from surface to emission to space.

You say
“One doesn’t subscribe to one model or another model. One uses models for different purposes. A simple model of the greenhouse effect is useful for basic illustrative purposes. A more complicated model, considering convection and radiation and looking at the energy balance at the top of the atmosphere is useful for a more advanced understanding of the greenhouse effect and for quantitative calculations. The models are not incompatible; they are different degrees of approximation to the real world useful for different purposes.”

Notice how your obsession with radiation and particularly the radiative effects of CO2 distort reality.
No mention of conduction effects in the atmosphere.
No mention of the thermal inertia of the Oceans Land Mass or the insulative properties of N2 and O2.
Its as if you have swallowed hook line and sinker the sales pitch of George Soros and other carbon trading hedge funds.
Windfarm and Solar Panel salesmen supply the “science” and you cannot see though the transparent nonsense that is the greenhouse theory


Comment on Uncertainty Monster paper in press by curryja

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Hi Roger, I was surprised to receive a comment so quickly, with the anticipation of a speedy publication. I asked the BAMS editors about this, and they confirmed this was their policy. This is a good policy (and I will definitely save their email describing their policy on this.)

Comment on Detection of Global Economic Fluctuations in the Atmospheric CO2 Record by Peter317

Comment on Extreme measures by Bruce

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I think the coming La Nina will drop temperatures more than .2C.

Comment on Extreme measures by Willis Eschenbach

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Eli, Willis is sure everyone appreciates your vaudeville act of referring to yourself in the third person, but it’s soooo last century … which may be why when, after Eli being asked repeatedly times for a citation, Eli provided one joke response and one dead link.

And to think that when third-person Eli made your first post, I actually thought you had something scientific to add, so I figured I’d find out what it was … stupid me, after asking you several times for a cite, third-person Eli, posted a joke and a dead link.

Well, Eli, third-person Willis is sure that everyone here can see that the joke and the dead link are perfect, they are totally appropriate and accurate symbols of your participation in the climate discussion … although your adherents will be too polite to mention it to you, I’m sure.

No thanks,

w.

Comment on Global portrait of greenhouse gases by Bruce

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Edim, I appreciate you attempts to ensure China burns 10% more coal year in and year out.

But I personally would still prefer Natural Gas no matter how many idiots are allowed to publish fictional papers.

“In summary, our results show that the substitution of gas for coal as an energy source results in increased rather than decreased global warming for many decades”

The corollary must also be true:

“In summary, our results would also show that the substitution of coal for gas as an energy source results in decreased rather than increased global warming for many decades.”

Hurrah for coal. It will save us from global warming!

Comment on Global portrait of greenhouse gases by Bruce

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GOSAT shows 30ppm differences.

CO2 measured in Antarctica shows daily 2.3ppm fluctuations. No agricultural fields nearby.

Comment on Uncertainty Monster paper in press by David L. Hagen

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Congratulations Judy The poor evaluation of uncertainty in AR4 was one of my biggest objections any what I take it with such a big "grain of salt". Hopefully IPCC authors will read and act on it. Often I see statistics analyzed as if the parameters were "random" when they are actually chaotic. May I encourage a paper on <b>Chaotic Climate Uncertainty</b> - to the degree it is possible to say what is known - and at least to emphasize what we know we don't know - and highlight what we don't know we don't know. cf your posts: <a href="http://judithcurry.com/2011/03/05/chaos-ergodicity-and-attractors/" / rel="nofollow">Chaos, ergodicity and attractors</a> <a href="http://judithcurry.com/2011/02/10/spatio-temporal-chaos/" / rel="nofollow">Spatio-temporal chaos</a>

Comment on Uncertainty Monster paper in press by curryja

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Hi David, your suggested topic is a good one, but unfortunately I am probably not the best person to write such a paper. I will think about it tho.

Comment on Detection of Global Economic Fluctuations in the Atmospheric CO2 Record by Will

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WebHubTelescope | September 10, 2011 at 1:11 pm

I LMAO at you, not this subject but at you, because you are ridiculous and all I can do is laugh at you.

You try every logical fallacy in the book to imply Correlation equals causality and do not have even the wit to appreciate that every argument you can possibly muster in support of AGW are always based on most ridiculous circular logic, so blatant it would embarrass even a child.

And yet you still have the arrogance to claim you can teach me something.

And I LMAO at you.

The very basis on which the so called “greenhouse effect” hypothesis was based has long since been conceded and yet you are completely oblivious to it.

And I LMAO at you.

You and the rest of the proponents of AGW do not have a shred of credibility left and yet you have no choice but to continue to dig yourselves a deeper hole.

And I LMAO at you.

Comment on Uncertainty Monster paper in press by tempterrain

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Cutting greenhouse emissions is rather a goal than an act

I’d say this was a dangerous line of argument. If generally accepted where would it end? No-one would ever act to do anything. Instead there would be a lot more nebulous waffle about goals, mission statements and where we expect to see ourselves in five years time! If an alcoholic middle aged overweight chain smoking drug abuser “acted” promptly on the sort of advice he might receive from any competent GP, there may well be some hope.

If not, if the advice was just taken to be another “goal”, to be written at the bottom of a lengthy “to-do” list, or considered for some future new year’s resolution, then I’d not give much for his chances

Comment on Extreme measures by Bart R

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Chief

Completeness is optional. It’s the internet.

Doom is useless to me. You’re barking up the wrong tree. Indeed, you’re barking enough for a forest.

Carbon taxes also, useless. They devalue the individual’s stake in the carbon budget and expropriate an individual right to government without consent.

I understand why you intellectualize and resort to bashing when you feel threatened or outside your comfort zone (or bottle of whiskey, whichever).

Guy smart as you could learn to just adapt to things, instead of panicking whenever an idea you don’t like is mentioned.

Comment on Uncertainty Monster paper in press by Pekka Pirilä

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Any argument can be dangerous when misused.

It may be dangerous to not react. It may be more dangerous to react, but do that in a wrong way.

The problem with climate policies is that no effective working policies are known. Proposals have been made, Kyoto protocol has been reached and several countries have followed it, but it’s real value is questionable as it’s difficult to find out, how the present is different from a counterfactual alternative. Some people have found strong effects, but those conclusions are based on questionable arguments.

Living in Europe I follow policy decisions of EU and I really don’t like them. Several of the decided or proposed requirements for renewable energy or energy saving are formulated in a way that lead to totally stupid outcome, i.e. to an outcome that’s far from the optimal way of the reaching the ultimate goal and that also brings serious risks of health problems true questionable and poorly tested changes in building practices.

EU has taken the approach of trying more than can be done. That’s guaranteed to backfire in couple of years with unpredictable consequences on the longer term development.

I’m for a modest carbon tax, and my “modest” may be more than modest on the scale of some others (something like $20/ton-CO2 is the level that I have in mind). My view is that such a carbon tax is a much better solution than the cap and trade solution of the Kyoto agreement, which EU is planning to extend with tighter goals in future. Many more countries should join the same approach to make it effective and workable in longer term, but agreeing on that appears to be impossible in near future. Many more doesn’t mean all, but EU alone is far too small part of the world.

Judith has emphasized often the need for robust solutions, I’m all for that.

Comment on Uncertainty Monster paper in press by Chief Hydrologist

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I see the thread is degenerating into a justification for carbon taxes. I am not in favour of carbon taxes. For me – a global carbon tax translates into higher energy and food costs for those who can least afford it – the 150 million who are ill-nourished and the 2 billion or so on the edge of economic viability. The costs of a tax sufficient to cause substitution is easily calculated in the Australian context. It is about $70/tonne of CO2 for energy – for transport it is much higher – but say $70/tonne. It is about 4% of the economy/year – but would be much greater in an economy where food and energy basics were a higher proportion of GDP. It would be quite immoral to place such an impost on the global economy.

But my being in not in favour is not at all relevant. It is simply not happening. It is not a politically viable mechanism. Much less so as the world is refusing to warm – and seems very likely to continue to do so for a decade or three more. I think to deny the latter outright is to show little understanding of the nature and extent of natural variation.

Assume that carbon taxes will never achieve widespread endorsement – and you won’t go far wrong. There are alternatives – such as those outlined here – Breakthrough Institute – climate pragmatism. If that doesn’t float your mitigation boat – so sad too bad.

Comment on Extreme measures by Chief Hydrologist

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I see you are stalking me – and the descent into incoherence continues. Just random sniping from the sidelines – no rhyme or reason – no rational argument. Heat and no light – utterly bizarre.


Comment on Uncertainty Monster paper in press by Pekka Pirilä

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Alex, I really like the presentation, perhaps that's because I agree fully on the approach and it supports the claims that I have made on the impossibility of having anything genuinely better than the Bayesian approach. The presentation tells very clearly, why the Bayesian approach is difficult and why it doesn't provide objective results, but it explains also, why no genuinely better alternatives exist. I found the second half of the presentation more interesting starting from slide 67. That starts with <blockquote> Basic principle: it is always better to recognise than to ignore uncertainty, even if modelling and analysis of uncertainty is difficult and partial. </blockquote> That's a staring point that I have also used to defend the Bayesian approach. Many other approaches start by formally accepting ignorance, but proceeding then in a way, where the actual significance of both the ignorance and of what we know anyway, are not faced explicitly, but taken care by the methodology in a too rough way. The problem that I have we some of the approaches proposed by Judith is that they lose information that way have anyway and therefore make the uncertainty to be a bigger monster than it really is. Only a serious attempt to apply the Bayesian approach can tell more about the limits of uncertainty. Understanding the nature of the three stages listed on slide 98 is also very important in that approach. The main problem may then be in valuing the Stage 2. The whole IPCC approach is closely related to Stage 2. Understanding, what's the value of, what the presentation calls <i>a scientific Bayes analysis</i> becomes important. The name <i>scientific Bayes analysis</i> is a bit questionable, but in a sense all scientific knowledge can be considered as outcome of such <i>scientific Bayes analysis<i>, although it may get gradually closer to the third stage of <i>an objective Bayes analysis<i>.

Comment on Uncertainty Monster paper in press by Pekka Pirilä

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Rob,

You are right that any fixed dollar value payment becomes easily a problem for the poor. That applies also to international market prices of commodities and food commodities in particular. The rich can buy in a sense the nutrition out of the mouths of the poor. That’s also one of the problems of bioenergy – or any other economic influence on the use of arable land.

Comment on Uncertainty Monster paper in press by curryja

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Alex, thanks a ton for this link, i love it. I will do a future post on the expert judgment piece of this.

Comment on Uncertainty Monster paper in press by Robert

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On the other hand, we have had extensive experience with central planning of economies on a national scale, all of which have ended dismally, though some take longer than others to disintegrate.

1. Placing a tax on something we want to discourage is not “central planning” unless you want to redefine the term so broadly that it become essentially meaningless. If carbon taxes or alcohol taxes or cigarette taxes are “central planning,” then jaywalking laws are totalitarian.

2. It’s a good example of a non-falsifiable argument to claim “all of which have ended dismally, though some take longer than others to disintegrate.” I might propose that all candidates for public office cut off one leg. I will advocate for this by arguing that “we have had extensive experience with representation by two-leggeds on a national scale, all of which have ended dismally, though some take longer than others to disintegrate.”

All societies and all policies and decisions and most lives end dismally, some taking longer than others, of course. That’s entropy for you.

3. If something as simple and decentralized as a carbon tax puts us on the road to “disintegration,” then presumably the United States was doomed long ago, when it built a vast system of interlocking highways under federal direction, for example, or when it created a federal agency empowered to deliver mail and parcels.

Comment on Uncertainty Monster paper in press by Chief Hydrologist

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Hi Pekka,

We need better models for action than has been achieved in the past 15 years. One of the problems seems to be that the people most wanting action are the ones resisting an alternative paradigm. No agreement seems possible.

Cheers

‘The old climate framework failed because it would have imposed substantial costs associated with climate mitigation policies on developed nations today in exchange for climate benefits far off in the future — benefits whose attributes, magnitude, timing, and distribution are not knowable with certainty. Since they risked slowing economic growth in many emerging economies, efforts to extend the Kyoto-style UNFCCC framework to developing nations predictably deadlocked as well.

The new framework now emerging will succeed to the degree to which it prioritizes agreements that promise near-term economic, geopolitical, and environmental benefits to political economies around the world, while simultaneously reducing climate forcings, developing clean and affordable energy technologies, and improving societal resilience to
climate impacts. This new approach recognizes that continually deadlocked international negotiations and failed domestic policy proposals bring no climate benefit at all. It accepts that only sustained effort to build momentum through politically feasible forms of action will lead to accelerated decarbonization. If this new era is to be led at all, it will be led primarily by example, not global treaty. The Copenhagen Accord is one of essentially voluntary actions among major emitters. The accord perpetuates the conceit that international negotiations will ultimately include legally binding emissions reduction targets, but in reality, the emissions targets will be unenforceable and thus constitute aspirational goals, not binding limits. That reality became even clearer at UNFCCC negotiations in Cancún in December 2010. The substantive parts of the Copenhagen Accord are the new multilateral agreements to invest in new energy technology, slow deforestation, and build disaster resilience — far better grounds for global cooperation than unenforceable emissions targets and timetables.’
http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/Climate_Pragmatism_web.pdf

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