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Comment on Climate science in public schools by Bart R

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The problem with issue trees is that they multiply dead ends and red herrings. The issue tree structure, unlike what most people familiar with data structures, is unfiltered and has no regard for truth value. False, true, proven, unproven, reliable, fictitious, opinion, fallacy, all are equally valid in an issue tree, and pretty much the only thing that matters to the interpreter is how heavily weighted issues are by visits.

The issue tree is never pruned except by tests of duplication and popularity. Two issues resemble each other so much that the interpreter does not distinguish them (for whatever subjective reason)? They get combined and treated as one. For instance, 100 degree warming in climate by 2070 would for some be no different from 10 degree warming by 2100, so the ‘duplicate’ gets pruned. Ten thousand hits on “cooling by 2050″ vs ten hits on “100 degree warming in 2070″? Well, guess which issue gets taught as a major argument in the controversy to a six year old? Certainly not 10 degree warming by 2100.

Issue trees are great tools for marketers looking for catchphrases and soundbytes to appeal to a demographic. They’re crap for deciding what to put into a school curriculum.


Comment on Climate sensitivity discussion thread by WebHubTelescope

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Your observation is pedantic. Passenger pigeons were exterminated. No problem, other birds exist. Rhetoric won’t prove my math wrong.

Comment on Climate science in public schools by Bart R

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Tom | May 14, 2012 at 11:01 pm |

Rivers, Tom. Teenagers in Minnesota drive on frozen rivers. They park on frozen lakes.

Tried describing that to some people in the Amazon, they couldn’t wrap their heads around the idea of an ice cube you could drive a truck on, or would.

Then again, tried explaining the idea of flying a plane under a waterfall and looking out one window seeing water rushing down toward the plane as far up as you could see, and looking out the other window watching water fall until it disappeared into mist hundreds of feet below, and they didn’t get that much, either.

Some things you just have to experience for yourself. For instance, passing an upper year university course in statistics. I highly recommend it, especially if they discuss Bayes in any detail.

Comment on Climate science in public schools by Bart R

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As I said, propaganda and brainwashing that children are not equipped to defend themselves against.

Comment on Climate sensitivity discussion thread by Chief Hydrologist

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You seem not to have the sense to speak English without resorting to high sounding but meaningless gobbledegook

‘Our results highlight that an initialization of the upper-ocean state using historical observations is effective for successful hindcasts of the PDO and has a great impact on future predictions. Ensemble hindcasts for the 20th century demonstrate a predictive skill in the upper-ocean temperature over almost a decade, particularly around the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension (KOE) and subtropical oceanic frontal regions where the PDO signals are observed strongest. A negative tendency of the predicted PDO phase in the coming decade will enhance the rising trend in surface air-temperature (SAT) over east Asia and over the KOE region, and suppress it along the west coasts of North and South America and over the equatorial Pacific. This suppression will contribute to a slowing down of the global-mean SAT rise.’ Mochizuki et al 2010 previously cited.

They are clearly claiming predictive skill for certain quite precisely stated results – if you would bother to read the paper instead of making claims about some other models.

Comment on The legacy of climategate: Part II by Greybeard

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Good point. The CRU and Team people et al should always be referred to as “activists”.

Comment on Climate science in public schools by Bart R

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P.E. | May 14, 2012 at 1:29 pm |

One believes you may be alluding to the Rising Sun, famous in song, and known to be the ruin of many a po’ boy.

Alternatively, considering the source, you may mean “iron butterfly”, but I don’t want to know.

Comment on Climate sensitivity discussion thread by Greybeard

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“not a reliable source due known bias and past bad behavior.”

This applies most of all to the majority of politically-financed climate science.


Comment on Climate sensitivity discussion thread by Terry Oldberg

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Chief Hydrologist:

The description which to you is gobbledegook is an orthodox description of the scientific method of inquiry. Like others in your field, you evidently lack an understanding of what this method is. This ignorance leads you and them to a perfect inability to design a properly constituted scientific study. This ignorance has sent the approximately 200 billion U.S. dollars that have been expended on global warming research down a rat hole while leading the people of the world to the brink of disaster from scientifically unwarranted alarms.

Comment on Climate science in public schools by David Wojick

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Regarding some of the above discussions, technically you can start the issue tree anywhere, because every question has an inverse. Thus any node in the issue tree can be made the top (or root) node. I like to start them with the most provacative issue, but that is art, not science. But it does not matter where you start, as all the important questions and objections will be drawn in.

Thus the claimed existence of the greenhouse effect is as good a starting point as the claimed threat of CAGW, as far as issue analysis is concerned. But it will take a while to get to CAGW, which will only be a sub-tree.

Comment on Climate science in public schools by Michael

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As I said, “uncensored discussions” and “discussing the science” are rarely the same thing, on least on blogs.

Comment on Climate science in public schools by Michael

Comment on Climate science in public schools by mike

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Rob,

While Dr. Curry is not working any sort of “team” on this blog, the hive-oppostion is most certainly fielding such a team–a troll-team. And Michael is a stock character in the line-up of that troll-team, in succession to the likes of M. Carey, Robert, and ianash of yore.

And Michael’s troll-bot function is to wear one out with relentless, brain-dead annoyance. He’s the blogospheric equivalent of real-word critters of the mosquito, bed-bug, picnic-ant, hair-lice, tape-worm, and flesh-eating bacterium variety.

And given the demands of Michael’s niche in the blogosphere’s ecology his lineage has been selectively bred so that it is now genetically impervious to ridicule, reprimands, appeals to reason, and requests for good-faith discussion. Rather, Michael’s limited repertoire of hard-coded reflexes can only be selectively engaged or dis-engaged by hive-vibe commands that sympathetically reasonate with the hair-sensors that cover his segmented exo-skeleton like a fine fur and the antennae afffixed either side of his two compound organs of sight. In other words, Rob, Michael is under the exclusive control of his hive-master betters.

So, Rob, I think we’re all wasting our time engaging Michael. I mean, it’s like trying to have an intelligent discussion with a swine-flu virus. He’s programmed to perform a wrecking mission on this blog and nothing you or I or anyone says or does have any effect on Michael’s instinctual, insectoid functioning. So probably best to just ignore him–not so hard to do in the blogosphere.

And, at the same time, we might even be thankful that the hive sent us, in Michael, a pest that actually seems to simulate humor pretty well from time to time–indeed, at Michael’s best you can barely detect the arthropod behind the human persona. A vast improvement over his predecessors.

Comment on Climate science in public schools by WebHubTelescope

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No, there is one convergence to the valid GHG model. If you skeptics had your way, you would have to teach all the competing models. The models that show up here and you never question them.
The iron sun model or whatever thing that Manuel pounds.
Joe world model
The SkyDragon model
Arno Arrack model
Pope model
Haynie model
Chief’s model
Vukcevic model
Huffman model
Postman model
Girma model
Nahle model
Stephan the denier model
Seifert model
And probably more.

According to your logic all these models are just as valid because you don’t have the courage or intellect to nail them to the wall and call them on it. You would rather spread FUD than teach science correctly.
It’s all very embarrassing for you.

Comment on Climate science in public schools by John Costigane

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(Root) node 1: “Humans are changing the climate in dangerous ways..

node 3: Who is spreading this nonsense, and why?


Comment on Climate science in public schools by Wagathon

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node 4: Is constructing a greenhouse an example of “changing the climate in dangerous ways”?

Comment on Climate science in public schools by hunter

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Rob,
Reading comprehension and critical thinking are not Michael’s strong points.

Comment on Climate science in public schools by hunter

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Michel,
You are not even in sight of the tree, and I doubt if you would understand the tree if you stumbled into it.

Comment on Climate science in public schools by Bryan

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WebHubTelescope says
“No, there is one convergence to the valid GHG model.”

That’s what all the fourteen models (and more) you list say.

Manabe S & Wetherald model seem to get most support but also the higher is colder model advocated by Leonard Weinstein and Nullius in Verba gets support.
But which one (if any) is the valid one?

Comment on Climate science in public schools by John Costigane

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node 3.1 the UN IPCC provides the science/ policy framework behind the scare

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