CAGW is a political movement with millions of adherents. It will not end anytime soon. It may never end, but it may stabilize as an endless special advocacy, about which little is done.
Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by David Wojick
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Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by David Wojick
The interesting question is whether the CAGW movement is peaking? It may be. Pickett charging Paris.
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Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? | Enjeux énergies et environnement
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Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by tumbleweedstumbling
Fascinating article. I actually was able to follow most of this. Thank you for my regular dose of climate sanity.
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Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by AK
Based on the included figure, if it replicates the behavior from 1925 to 1960, there will be a dip followed by another positive peak lasting for a couple of decades. If it replicates that from 1885 to 1900 it’s over. Interesting that the negative phases appear to very roughly replicate the preceding positive phases.
OTOH this could all be anecdotal: there are only two of each in the data, and they’re very different.
If the AMO is truly an unforced internal oscillation, the oscillation can cease, change frequency or amplitude at any time.
IMO this should be the default assumption. Any effort to tie this to external “forcings” would seem to me likely to be an exercise in curve-fitting.
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Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by angech2014
Vaughan Pratt | September 11, 2015 at 2:25 am |
“@angech2014: I guess this means the sea level rose 10 feet all over the world
Lucky guess. ”
perfect comment.
+10.
1 per foot of sea level rise.
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Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by aaron
Way too early.
One big dip is not a flip.
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Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by JCH
What amazes me is people just accept that the AMO is doing something. For the most part it does not do anything except what the GMST tells it to do.
<a href="http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-amo/from:2015.17/plot/esrl-amo/from:2015.17/trend" rel="nofollow">So lately the GMST has been telling it, despite what the AMOC has been indicating, to go up.</a> Why? Because it's hot this year. The AMO has got nothing to offset that. Nada. Zippo. It's a powerless powerhouse pretender.
The PDO is the beast.
The Atlantic does have an influence on ENSO.
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Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by aaron
Yeah, it looks quite variable. There seems to be ocillation in the intensity of the phases, but the phases themselves to seem to be necessarily in synch all the time. Look at the first fifty years, there’s huge overlap of the negative a positive phases, it’s like there’s a negative phase peak when the positive phase has just started declining.
Looks like a temporary phenomenon that could fall apart at any moment. A stadium wave, temporary syching of many different ocillations. The big, distinct postiive and negative phases post 1930 are probably a transient phenomenon that may be falling apart.
Look at the positive and negative values seperately.
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Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by zentgraf2
Dr Curry, if the AMO continues to go cold, how will that fit into the stadium wave?
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Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by wallensworth
The last positive phase of the AMO lasted about 30 years, with a 30-year negative phase afterwards. The current positive phase is only about 15 years old… so if history repeats itself, we’ve got another 15 years to go before it turns solidly negative.
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Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by aaron
“but the phases themselves to seem to be necessarily in synch all the time”
The phases (postive and negative) themselves don’t seem to be necessarily in synch all the time.
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Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by omanuel
Thanks, Professor Curry, for your role in inserting glimpses of reality into the daily dose of AGW propaganda!
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Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by AK
But the one before only lasted about 15 years. Or, if increased CO2 is actually causing the length of the phases to increase, this phase might last 60-75 years.
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Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by curryja
Well the stadium wave is highly smoothed, depending on how the transition plays out it could take about 10 yrs to really see it. If the AMO goes cold decisively within the next few years, that would trigger some rethinking
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Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by AK
So as I understand you, you’re suggesting that the AMO (index) is actually driven by several semi-independent processes with (likely) different periods.
If so, it would seem to me that each of those processes would have a greater chance of being influenced by increased pCO2 than the “global average temperature”. And that influence could well apply to the period(s) as well as the amplitude(s).
But given the number of dimensions in which influential factors could be moving, I’d say that even without changes to the pCO2 the default assumption should be unforced, and unpredictable, variation.
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Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by Danny Thomas
JimD,
Is endangerment collective or individual? Ban from further use of that chemical? How ridiculous this might become (but it is a legal issue).
Ex.
You have 5 kids who emit CO2 and methane and I only have one. Over time, the disparity is substantial so I’m just gonna have to see ya in court I guess.
Your drugs example is a great secondary issue. Say you take a certain lifesaving drug which I don’t and your waste is processed thru a treatment plant which of course is ineffective in removal of that drug. Then that drug enters the water system. All the pieces are there: endangerment, chemical, potential for further use………..so legally you can no longer have access to your needed medication should you lose your lawsuit.
Big old giant bag o’ worms, this one. Once the attorney’s get a hold of it……….(with apologies)………….yuck.
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Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by aaron
Yes, well put.
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Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by edbarbar
Borken link?
The Atlantic Ocean is showing signs of a possible significant long-term shift from warm-to-cold
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Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by Jim D
That’s a tangled one. Do you sue (a) the water treatment plant, (b) the drug company, (c) me, (d) all of the above? Anyway, that is what the court is there for, to find out where the law stands on all this. It’s rarely simple and you would do better with a bunch of co-victims in a class action, I guess.
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