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Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by Willard

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> VP has the more difficult argument to make […]

True, if we accept that VP needs to go beyond pop-Popperianism.

However, this difficulty is mitigated by some insider trading:

When philosophers realized that an experimentum crucis is a rare event, the falsificationnist stock plummeted.

***

Speaking of which, Vaughan, the asymmetry Popper saw between falsification and verification was meant (a) to bypass any induction to universal statements, which he calls conjectures, and (b) to only accept existential claims for scientific inference, which he called refutations. Hence the name of his book.


Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by Vaughan Pratt

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@tonyb: If a mountain that doesn’t tend to move can’t be measured accurately after many years of trying, what hope is there of measuring a moving target such as sea level.?

Tony, the area of the top of The Mountain Formerly Known As Mt. McKinley is way less than that of the sea.

If you know the weight of 537 bison and 537 million cows, elementary statistics tells you that you know the expected weight of a cow a thousand times more accurately than that of of a bison.

Measuring sea level at a great many points gives you a much more accurate idea of the distance of the sea from the centre of the Earth than the distance of said Alaskan mountain from said centre.

Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by Faustino aka Genghis Cunn

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And perhaps not, if history is a guide.

Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by Faustino aka Genghis Cunn

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… in common with many CE readers.

Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by Faustino aka Genghis Cunn

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rebel, I disagree with your climate assessment and see no value in fear. “Stay calm and carry on.”

Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by Vaughan Pratt

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A further thought, tony: how do you know whether the distance to the Earth’s centre is changing faster for the sea or the land? You need to take isostatic rebound into consideration before answering that.

Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by Willard

Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by Vaughan Pratt

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The interesting question is whether the CAGW movement is peaking?

Your point being that the question of whether global mean surface temperature will be way higher in 2100 than today is completely uninteresting?

If you believe that then I submit that you’re the sort of person that would find it perfectly reasonable to barrel down highways at 150 mph. The question of whether that might cause any problem would be completely uninteresting to you, right? No danger there because according to you you’d be in complete control of your car at that and even higher speeds.

You may well be fine there. Likewise climate in 2100 may well be fine there.


Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by Vaughan Pratt

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Even the looney toon Californians seem to be getting the message:

Yep. Oil industries pointed their multimillion-dollar gun and the Democrats in the California assembly got the message.

What more effective message than money?

From the point of view of those outside the US, adding an amendment to the US Constitution preventing this sort of influence, which might reduce CO2 emissions, would surely be preferable to deleting the second amendment, which could only increase the US population with no impact on the populations of the other 192 countries of the world.

Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by vukcevic

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there is a strong 28.9 day signature; high latitude event.

Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by Science or Fiction

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Vaughan Pratt | September 12, 2015 at 12:09 am |

While I work on an answer, which may take some time. To those who are interested, I happen to have a link to the great work by Popper where his method is put forward. The first 25 pages pretty much contains the essence. “The Logic of Scientific Discovery”, Issued in english in 1959:
http://strangebeautiful.com/other-texts/popper-logic-scientific-discovery.pdf

“Realism and the aim of science” From the Postscripts to “The logic of scientific discovery” were issued as late as 1983. In the book he elaborates on some fundamental principles, and responds to contemporary criticism. As far as I understand his work has stood up great up great to criticism.

Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by Pieter Steenekamp

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@Vaughen: No, I do not claim there is a single monolithic worldwide scientific community? I merely claim that there is strong majority view that humans actions emitting CO2 is causing real harm to the environment.
For example, I quote from an official statement by the world’s largest general scientific society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science: “The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society.” “http://www.aaas.org/sites/default/files/migrate/uploads/aaas_climate_statement1.pdf”.
Please understand my point point: I do not claim that because the AAAS, or the majority of scientists for that matter, say something it is necessarily true. I support the general views of Judith Curry on climate change and that is that there is a high degree of uncertainty about it.
What I do say is that I support a society where a court of law can hold a government accountable if their actions are causing real harm to the environment.

Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by Jim D

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The reason I think a lot of Steyn supporters think this is about the hockey stick is Steyn’s own logo of him breaking a hockey stick. It’s sold to his donors as, if he wins, the hockey stick is broken. What actually happens if he wins is that the court recognizes his comments on science would not be taken seriously by a reasonable person. Many would not be behind him so much if the realized what a win means. Mann’s case is that a lot of people are taking Steyn seriously so the damage is done. The free-speech issue is whether the comments are taken seriously or not, which is a tough one, because it hangs on what a reasonable person would think of Steyn’s fraudulence remarks.

Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by angech2014

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Vaughan Pratt | September 12, 2015 at 1:36 am |
all quotes need to be considered in totality if available, but can still be used partially without them ever being a misquote.

“License to quote out of context. Gotta love this redefinition of honesty.”

Sorry Vaughan, why did you decide to bring honesty into the definition of a quote? Touched a nerve?
I did not redefine honesty.
Neither did I give license to quote out of context.
You can use a quote many ways, honestly, dishonestly, liberally, conservatively or flippantly being a few.
A partial quote is still a quote. Using it dishonestly or in any way she/he chooses is the prerogative of the quotee.
I was emphasizing the difference between a quote and a misquote, not the honesty or otherwise of the person using the quote or misquote.

Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by angech2014

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Steven Mosher | September 11, 2015 at 10:01 pm |
“angech2014 there is a style manual for quoting .Steyn abuses it”
Steyn was very rude to Mann initially, no doubt about it.
We both agree on that.
The law in USA seems to say that public figures have to wear it.
Shame.
Steyn is trying very hard to show with quotes from reputable people, Curry, Muller, Way, Pielke jun and sen that Mann’s science is bad.
He may not follow a style manual that you approve of but the quotes are telling. He is putting out a Volume 2. I believe you have form against Mann’s science. I would hope that he puts in a couple of your quotes in the next issue as you have done a very good job in this regard.


Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by AK

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<blockquote>Describing an ice age as stable, [...]</blockquote>Ice ages were hardly “<i>stable</i>”. On a time scale of tens of millennia, they varied widely, although the average temperature (and, apparently, pCO2) tended to stay low. But there were enormous variations where, and how deep, the ice was.

Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by opluso

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As a layman I was under the impression that tropical cyclones were driven by the temperature differential across latitudes, and thus the prediction of a cooler northern Atlantic resulting in fewer hurricanes puzzles me a bit.

Not exactly sure what you mean by “driven” but large Atlantic cyclones typically originate when atmospheric troughs, or waves, move from the African continent over the ocean. The energy released by warm tropical ocean “feeds” the pattern while cooler waters provide less energy (and the storm dies).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Comment on Has the AMO flipped to the cool phase? by ordvic

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I’m wondering where’s the rain in SoCal? I’ve heard anecdotally that the rain from El Nino comes toward the end. Will we get torrential rain this winter?
Last January both oceans seemed fairly passive. In June both the Blob and El Nino seemed in full force. El Nino still looks strong but the blob appears to be weakening.
January

August

September

Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by David Springer

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150mph… a number pulled straight out of his ass.

Comment on The Urgenda ruling in the Netherlands by David Springer

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who enforces the rules against thread jacking?

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