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Comment on Uncertainty Monster paper in press by Pekka Pirilä

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Rob,

The original Hartwell paper and various texts of the Breakthrough Institute contain a lot of sense. My main disagreement with them is that they justify their own proposals with optimism in the approaches they promote, and I find that optimism ill justified.

It’s the common problem that’s easier to criticize, what others have proposed than to present a genuinely better alternative.

Your own staring comment is on the point. What we need is more open discussion on the alternative policies without too many preconditions and without unwillingness to replace something that’s not working with something totally different. I understand the unwillingness of many to give up on, what was achieved with great effort in Kyoto, but they should finally accept that being stubborn on that is only detrimental for the progress and also for their own ultimate goals. The Kyoto is a wrong way also for its serious technical weaknesses, not only for the difficulties in getting others to agree on it.


Comment on Uncertainty Monster paper in press by Pekka Pirilä

Comment on Global portrait of greenhouse gases by manacker

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Vaughan

Your latest posts from September 11 and 12 do not add anything new to our discussion.

Assumptions on time delay, climate sensitivity, etc, are nice. But they are just that: assumptions.

Physical observations on changes in temperature and CO2 levels tell us a bit more, but we are stuck with making assumptions regarding the relative forcing of CO2, other anthropogenic factors and natual factors.

Here we have IPCC on one side suggesting that natural factors only represented around 3% of the forcing since 1750 and all other natural forcing components other than CO2 cancelling one another out.

Then we have several solar studies suggesting that around half of the warming can be attributed to the unusually high level of 20th century solar activity.

In between these two estimates we have your model assumption, which results in roughly 65% of the warming attributed to CO2.

If we use the IPCC assumptions above plus the observed data from 1850 to today, we end up with a 2xCO2 CS of ~1.4C.

If we use your model’s assumptions, we arrive at ~1.0C.

If we use the postulations of the solar studies we arrive at ~ 0.7C.

All of the above without complicating things by adding in an assumed significant time delay (or “hidden in the pipeline” postulation), which would, of course, increase the CS..

All of this points toward our host’s observation that there is a whole lot of uncertainty out there regarding a) natural climate forcing and b) positive/negative/or neutral net overall feedback, which make it uncertain whether or not AGW is a potential problem or nothing to worry about at all.

Some of this uncertainty may prove to be impossible to resolve with added scientific knowledge based on empirical data, while other portions may be resolved with new research results. Will the CLOUD experiment at CERN give us new knowledge to help resolve some of this uncertainty? Or will new knowledge come from a totally different source? Who knows?

It’s still a wide-open question with nothing cast in concrete.

Max

Comment on Uncertainty Monster paper in press by coaag

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What’s with all the complaining and schadenfreude from many of the commenters on this blog? For instance, instead of being up in arms about what Achim Steiner said why not just contact the man and get it clarified? You can reach him through an admin. asst. at: Corli Pretorius, Executive Assistant to the Executive Director Corli.Pretorius@unep.org.
I was hoping this blog would be about science and give me good food for thought. Part of it is. But there are two basic human energies that one can choose: be for what one is for, or be against what someone else is for.

Comment on Uncertainty Monster paper in press by Chief Hydrologist

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Robert

’1. Placing a tax on something we want to discourage is not “central planning” unless you want to redefine the term so broadly that it become essentially meaningless. If carbon taxes or alcohol taxes or cigarette taxes are “central planning,” then jaywalking laws are totalitarian.’

Laws are intended to protect people from other more brutal or ruthless people. Thus pollution, child labour, occupational health and safety – as well as the usual laws on murder, robbery, etc and many other such laws – can be justified as protection of the populace.

Laws on alcohol and cigarettes aim to protect the populace against themselves – and are very much more difficult to justify where there is a component of the tax that is meant to reduce demand rather than just to recover costs.

All laws are by definition central planning – they limit freedom by consent in a democratic society. We are not free to murder someone without risking state organised retribution.

Carbon taxes impose ‘substantial costs associated with climate mitigation policies on developed nations today in exchange for climate benefits far off in the future — benefits whose attributes, magnitude, timing, and distribution are not knowable with certainty. Since they risked slowing economic growth in many emerging economies, efforts to extend the Kyoto-style UNFCCC framework to developing nations predictably deadlocked as well.’

We are quite entitled to withhold consent to carbon taxes- as I most emphatically do.

’2. It’s a good example of a non-falsifiable argument to claim “all of which have ended dismally, though some take longer than others to disintegrate.” I might propose that all candidates for public office cut off one leg. I will advocate for this by arguing that “we have had extensive experience with representation by two-leggeds on a national scale, all of which have ended dismally, though some take longer than others to disintegrate.’

This of course is a logical fallacy. But the essence of our enlightenment heritage is individual freedom, private property, representative democracy and the rule of law. All other systems have ended very badly indeed with hundreds of millions of people dying in the bloodbath that was the 20th century. If this is your battleground – be prepared for irrelevance.

’3. If something as simple and decentralized as a carbon tax puts us on the road to “disintegration,” then presumably the United States was doomed long ago, when it built a vast system of interlocking highways under federal direction, for example, or when it created a federal agency empowered to deliver mail and parcels.’

There are certain services that a government might reasonably supply. Defence, education, health, water, sanitation, roads, etc. We may equally, in a democracy, not give consent to any or all of these. But carbon taxes are not even a service of any sort. They impose substantial costs on production – and this is the road to ruin for many people. You have to convince them that there is a benefit here. I think carbon taxes are fundamentally flawed technically – so you have lost one vote already. Your self imposed task is impossible – carbon taxes are dead politically. You may disagree – but hey that’s democracy.

I suggest you read Hayek – The Constitution of Liberty and the Road to Serfdom – for a fuller understanding of the role of law and government in a free society.

Comment on Laframboise on the IPCC by P.E.

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As I said, that’s a series of threads by itself. There are layers and layers of issues, and that’s one of them. Another is defining and enforcing quality. It’s hard to imagine how one can engineer an institution that won’t eventually become captive to interests. The UN fans trivialize this critical difficulty.

Comment on Does the Aliasing Beast Feed the Uncertainty Monster? by hunter

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Major Tom,
The social idiocy that led to accepting AGW also led to the idea that governments could borrow their way to wealth.
AGW is merely the part of the catastrophe we are discussing (more or less) here.

Comment on Laframboise on the IPCC by P.E.


Comment on Does the Aliasing Beast Feed the Uncertainty Monster? by MattStat

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There’s certainly something valuable in each of these postings, but unfortunately the discussion and sometimes even the posts themselves get interpreted by many as proofs of additional uncertainty in climate science, while they should be read as a source of inspiration that may lead to some useful applications rather as any kind of statements on the present climate science. Most of the authors of these posts don’t know enough about the state of art of climate science to make such statements, but many skeptics find evidence for their views from everything

I am at least half guilty of that charge, or guilty of a reduced variation. I do think that some of what I have studied casts doubt on the reasonableness of the claim that the equilibrium climate sensitivity and the transient climate sensitivity can be accurately known. On the other hand, I took some inspiration from the Padill et al atricle posted here a few weeks ago, and I have undertaken two projects for next year’s Joint Statistical Meetings in San Diego, one a data analysis and the other (hoped for) a session of invited papers.

As everyone knows: (1) it is easier to point out a problem than to solve it; (2) experts in a field almost never recognize a problem that is pointed out to them by experts in other fields; (3) with many more ways to be wrong than to be right, many efforts to correct a problem, when it is properly identified, will themselves be problematical. Here, Richard Saumarez has presented aliasing as a problem. In the frequency-domain analysis of stationary time series, undersampling results in too much power attributed to low frequencies; from an autoregressive point of view (mine and Padilla et al’s), undersampling results in failure to identify important covariate relationships (linear or nonlinear.) If I understand the posts of Stephen Mosher, he claims that undersampling in the time and spatial domains is not a problem. I don’t believe that the analysis of within-daily measurements has ever shown that he is correct. Previously I identified the equilibrium approximations as sources of model inaccuracy, and I think that the majority response is that the inaccuracies are too small to matter, though that has never been shown either.

Right now, the GCM-based predictions of temperature increase are running too high. It could be that the inaccuracies are due to something unimportant (and the 50-year prediction will somehow turn out to be accurate), but with aliasing and equilibrium assumptions having been pointed out as potential sources of the error, it should at least be admitted that the evidence to date is insufficient to show that those potential sources of error are in fact negligible.

Comment on Laframboise on the IPCC by Tom Scharf

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I think the establishment’s reaction is known by past actions:

1. Ignore it, hope it goes away
2. Attack the author
3. Attack the author’s supporters
4. The author is a denier
5. This changes nothing in the basic science of climate change
6. Feel sorry for themselves with this unwarranted attack on climate science

999. Discuss the content of the report in a meaningful way.

Comment on Laframboise on the IPCC by hunter

Comment on Letter to the dragon slayers by Bryan

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Andrew
why are you not trying to pin down Al Gore with his pack of fake experiments?.
It appears more likely that you are a biased hack rather than a fair minded objective reporter.

Don’t you think that Phil’s failure to come up with link to a particular radiation shield is rather odd?
If you google “radiation shield” you get thousands of hits of all sorts.
Which one is he talking about?

Phil’s “radiation shield” apparently needs to be a very good absorber, so let it be a perfect black body.
If you combine it with CO2 you can create a new improved class of thermos flasks .

Old thermos flask technology
Double glass concentric bottles with a vacuum between them and highly silvered reflective coating on the vacuum side of bottles.

New IPCC approved technology (as above with these changes)
Replace the vacuum with high pressure CO2
Replace the silvered highly reflective coating with a perfect black body coating.
Take out a patent on it and make a fortune.

Comment on Does the Aliasing Beast Feed the Uncertainty Monster? by Norm Kalmanovitch

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The expectations are based on what fourier analysis demonstrates does not exist which is why AGW supporters expected warming from 2002 to today because of increased CO2 emissions but have only been presented with cooling for the past nine years and counting.
If the expectation is that CO2 emissions will cause catastrophic global warming when is this warming expected to resume ?
In 2006 the Hathaway NASA expectation for solar cycle 24 was that it would be greater than cycle 23 allowing for the dismissal of solar influence as being the prime driver of climate change.
The Hathaway NASA 2011 prediction now shows that 24 is less than half them 23 cycle amplitude.
It seems that expectations are wrong when they are improperly based on fabricated computer models and non existant correlations so what exactly do you mean by “this kind of tatally wrong arguments”

Comment on Laframboise on the IPCC by P.E.

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Actually, Einstein was accepted as a visionary pretty much overnight, because his theories explained anomalous experiments already performed. He’s a bad example of what you’re trying to argue, but a good example of how science is supposed to work. He was well-established as a preeminent scientist when the Nazis started their Deutsche Physik thing, which wasn’t taken seriously outside of Germany, and was largely considered a joke inside.

Comment on Laframboise on the IPCC by hunter

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You forgot the most noxious:
“They are anti-science!”


Comment on Laframboise on the IPCC by hunter

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Oops…
Here is the great believer battlecry made immortal:

Comment on Laframboise on the IPCC by Wagathon

Comment on Does the Aliasing Beast Feed the Uncertainty Monster? by mike

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So everyone’s favorite doofus, Robert, has taken a break from his travails at “The Idiot Tracker”, Robert’s loser-blog that no one reads, and gone on one of his usual tears through this blog (hey, Robert!–thanks for the spam-link to your loser blog that no one reads in your opening comment).

And, as we’ve come to expect from Mr. Screw-Up, himself, Robert’s blunder-buss pot-shot at electrical engineers inadvertently ended up nailing two of his buddies–WebHub and tempterrain. Which then prompted an indignant tempterrain (temp’s always at his best when in an indignant snit) to reveal the critical, “meta-expertise” criterion by which the worth of electrical engineers can be judged–the good ‘uns don’t “froth at the mouth when Al Gore’s name is mentioned.” (St. Al’s B. A. was in Government Studies, incidentally, for you “meta-expertise” mavens, out there.)

And to give the flavor of Robert’s loser blog, that no one reads, one may profitably consider the title of the somewhat disturbing post which Robert linked to in his initial comment on this thread. Robert’s blog post, of which he is the author, is entitled, “Frank Lemke Mathturbates in Public–Judith Curry Watches”. Quite the snappy title! And that (heh-heh) image of Judith Curry watching Frank “mathurbate” publically–well, that’s the sort of edgy snark that thrills Robert’s greenshirt comrades (while leaving the rest of us wondering just where the lefties dug-up this very strange Robert idiot). And that, in turn, allows one to reflect on the salient feature of the “meta-expertise” of CAGW advocates–they are almost all really, really weird, creepy people. Like Robert.

Comment on Laframboise on the IPCC by Wagathon

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Look at the politics of personal destruction that has been used to stifle truth. Are scientists interested in truth for its own sake or lies for the sake of America’s enemies?

The fall of global warming alarmism really began with the attempted marginalization of William Gray and the use of the rhetoric of `Holocaust denier’ to compare skeptical scientists to Nazis.

The Medium is the Message: from the denigration of Wm Gray to the present, whenever you heard of a ‘consensus’ you were being treated to collectivists’ version of ‘truth finding’ and ‘truth making’ and ultimately, of course, the enforcement and control of ‘truth.’

That is what liberal fascism is all about. It’s Kafkaesque! Global warming only nominally was ever about the science. In reality, it has been an international conspiracy against America with some of its deepest roots in America and in academia itself. And along the way, the global warming movement was taken over by the liberal wing of the Democrat Party in America with its collectivist creed and dogmatic belief in the existence of a Marxist Utopia.

Comment on Does the Aliasing Beast Feed the Uncertainty Monster? by MattStat

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<i> Aliasing only undersamples the Monster.</i> Undersampling provides the Monster with an alias?
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