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Comment on Copenhagen Consensus 2012 by Rob Starkey

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Bart
An efficient tax is one with a very low cost to administer vs. the revenue collected. An example would be a fuel tax collected at the gas pump.

An inefficient tax is one that has a high cost of government administration in proportion to the revenue collected. The tax concept that you advocate would seem to have a very high administrative cost. There would be a significant number of government officials involved in establishment of the precise amount of the tax to be levied on individual products as well as a high long term cost in government officials having to verify/validate the amount of CO2 emitted by different taxpayers. In addition, there is no data regarding the relative elasticity of the items that require the emissions of CO2 for their production so there is no guarantee that consumption would be reduced proportionally to revenues collected. As an example, would your tax which would raise the cost of cement reduce the demand?

Your proposed tax approach only makes any sense if it reduced demand for the products that require CO2 emissions for their production.


Comment on Copenhagen Consensus 2012 by manacker

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Rob Starkey

Good analysis of an “efficient” and an “inefficient” tax.

You also describe an “effective” and an “ineffective” tax.

Bart’s proposed carbon tax is both inefficient and ineffective.

It is simply a big government money grab.

Max

Comment on Copenhagen Consensus 2012 by Bart R

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m | May 23, 2012 at 3:33 pm |

Wow. An argument based on the authority of Phil Jones and Girma Orssengo?

I think I’ll give that one a pass, thanks.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1992.33/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1992/trend

See? Anyone can artfully point to the part of a graph that they judge demonstrates some point.

Of course, that I’m using the most reliable methodology on the most reliable datasets doesn’t mean my judgement is necessarily better than anyone elses’.

Comment on Copenhagen Consensus 2012 by Rob Starkey

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Thanks- I started to write an explanation about effective vs. ineffective taxes, but thought the effort would be wasted under the circumstances.

Comment on Time varying trend in global mean surface temperature by Peter Lang

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WHT, I am not sure what you are arguing:

Do you agree that your charts of the Greenland ice cores show much faster rates of warming in the past 8,000 years and even faster in the past 20,000 years than anything we have encountered in the past 200 years? (previously you acknowledged this is what they show).

So what that we are at 400 ppm? That is a very low CO2 concentration in Earth history, and the Earth is at a temperature well below its “normal operating temperature”. So I don’t see why that is scary. In fact, it may be good to be rising above the level at which life would be virtually wiped out (i.e. about 170 ppm).

The James Hansen Figure 1 here http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf shows the planet is in a dangerous long term trend. It is getting colder and CO2 concentrations are reducing. That suggests catastrophe if that continues. Playing devils advocate, we could argue that raising CO2 levels is a precautionary step (good risk management) rather than an irresponsible and dangerous act.

If not for man’s CO2 contribution, how much colder would you predict the Earth would be in 200 years from now?

Comment on Time varying trend in global mean surface temperature by David Wojick

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Bart, I have no doubt there are problems with the satellite data, but they are dwarfed by the deep methodological problems with the surface statistical models. The satellites are instruments doing what they were designed to do. There is no designed sampling system for surface temperatures.

Comment on Time varying trend in global mean surface temperature by omanuel

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I.e., <i> "I haven’t found any evidence of AGW in satellite-era sea surface temperature data, but I’ll keep looking"</i> is a very biased approach to observations that is sure to deceive the observer eventually.

Comment on Copenhagen Consensus 2012 by David Springer

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The electrical grid can barely handle the load it has now. How will the electricity needed to recharge more than a token number of electric vehicles be delivered? Transmission lines cannot be stacked higher vertically and must be widened instead. How much does it cost to acquire private property needed to widen transmission line footprints?

Electric vehicle proponents live in la-la land.


Comment on Time varying trend in global mean surface temperature by blueice2hotsea

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Hi Pekka

Nice to see you commenting here again.

I can’t offer a solution, just a simple observation based on prior employment in long range economic planning. Plans with equivalent NPVs can have dramatic differences in initial investment and flexibility to later reformulation. In dealing with future uncertainties, It’s essential to review multiple alternative plans which have employed diverse approaches.

Comment on Time varying trend in global mean surface temperature by Edim

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To believe in such accuracy of the ice core gas data is mind-bogling to me. Especially when one knows about the problems with it and the suppression of the non-300-ppm measurements.

Comment on Time varying trend in global mean surface temperature by Girma

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WebHubTelescope

It is you who plotted that model until 2200.

I plotted it ONLY to establish the climate pattern of the 20th century and for predictions of ONLY the next couple of decades.

The graph you plotted is YOURS not mine.

Here is the graph that I defend => http://bit.ly/HRvReF

Comment on Time varying trend in global mean surface temperature by Bart R

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David Wojick | May 24, 2012 at 9:31 am |

I can grant that there are problems with all the data; as there are three satellite datasets in some degree of disagreement, and the length of their record is so short overall, and we can demonstrate that we collect at least an order of magnitude (probably two orders) too little data to employ for the uses to which it is being put, it’s impossible to make statements of relative inadequacy with much confidence.

The data collection is all pretty insufficient for climate analysis. Which is not much to be wondered at, as it is just an improvised use of weather collection never originally intended for use in climatology, and governments worldwide appear to have recoiled from the duty to bring advancement to monitoring of conditions — one of the few obligations even a minarchist might agree is incumbent on any state — as if knowledge were dangerous to them.

Comment on Time varying trend in global mean surface temperature by Bob Tisdale

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omanuel says: “…is a very biased approach to observations that is sure to deceive the observer eventually.”

Please clarify your comment.

Comment on Time varying trend in global mean surface temperature by sunshinehours1

Comment on Time varying trend in global mean surface temperature by Girma

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Web

It is you who plotted that model until 2200.

I plotted it ONLY to establish the climate pattern of the 20th century and for predictions of ONLY the next couple of decades.

The graph you plotted is YOURS not mine.

Here is the graph that I defend => http://bit.ly/HRvReF


Comment on Copenhagen Consensus 2012 by Bart R

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David Springer | May 24, 2012 at 9:35 am |

How odd. So many in the field say that rather than causing capacity issues, the storage capacity of electric vehicles tends to level demand by off-peak charging, thereby making gridded power more efficient overall.

Nocera’s argument, while not diminishing this off-peak storage practice’s points about efficiency, is that personal power is the solution: short term home storage fuel cell appliances analogous to water heaters or refridgerators for electric potential. Combined with Nocera’s personal power generation appliances, his gridless plan very much appeals to those who look to individual responsibility to resolve cost issues through innovation and the democracy of the Market.

Comment on Copenhagen Consensus 2012 by Bart R

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Sony | May 24, 2012 at 3:56 am |

Not everyone _does_ benefit from the lowered price. That’s the fly in the ointment of subsidy. Such benefits, if they ever are real, are transitory and suppress the natural evolution of the Market to efficiency at the same time as suppressing innovation. On top of which, the churn and waste endemic in such schemes administratively always make them more burdensome than non-subsidy alternatives.

Indeed, it is _not_ even the lower price.

Right now, today, the price of CSP electricity is lower than the price of electricity from tarsands by two thirds.

At such an exchange, it’d be cheaper to build and give away electric cars to every US driver than to build the 10,000 km of pipelines planned for the tarsands in North America. And, it would be _less_ of a subsidy, by far. I’m not proposing giving away millions of electric cars. That would be silly. But it would still be less absurd than subsidy to fossil infrastructure that we know already is more expensive.

Comment on Time varying trend in global mean surface temperature by Jim Cripwell

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David, you write “The satellite observations say this dominance hypothesis is false, not that radiative physics is false”

Boy am I gald to see someone else writing this. To me, it is so obviously true, and it goes to the heart of why the proponents of CAGW are wrong. It is true that adding CO2 to the atmosphere changes the radiative balance. What is wrong is that there is any proper physics that allows us to go from a change in radiative balance to change in surface temperature. The assumption that this can be done by only looking at radiative effects has never been justified, and so far as I can see, and you clearly state, is just plain wrong.

But I am sure the proponents of CAGW will never admit this.

Comment on Time varying trend in global mean surface temperature by P.E.

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Even if you concede that the warming is as high is they say, the statement is still unfalsifiable. Not a good way to start a scientific paper, with an unfalsifiable claim.

Comment on Heartburn at Heartland by Michael

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Deeds are often preceeded by words. Even if the speaker isn’t the perp, there is a certain role played by making such things an acceptable part of the discourse.

Good to see that Judith finds these allusions to pyhsical violence entertaining, when her some of her colleagues around the world are being subject to direct threats and intimidation for doing their jobs.

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