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Comment on Week in review – politics and policy edition by JCH

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I said what I meant to say, it is no surprise the terrorist who has been identified is an Algerian. Algeria and France have a long history. There is a large Algerian population in France, and there is a radicalized Algerian element that includes some of the most vicious fighters on the face of the earth. They will do anything.

It is possible this entire attack came from Algeria. It is also possible it came from ISIS.

With the help of France, centrist Algerians fought off the radicalized contingent in Algeria, so the dead enders may have joined ISIS. They hate France.

Right now, the public information is insufficient for the public to make a determination.


Comment on Week in review – politics and policy edition by Mark Silbert

Comment on Week in review – politics and policy edition by Mark Silbert

Comment on Week in review – politics and policy edition by Don Monfort

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Dolt. French-Algerian war ended 1962. And no one has expressed surprise that a terrorist is Algerian. Nobody would be surprised if the terrorists are Egyptian, Syrian, Libyan, Yemeni, Chechen, etc., etc. We would be surprised if just one of those motor truckers turned out to be an agnostic.

Comment on Week in review – science edition by mwgrant

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Hi Willis

As noted the graphic is from the current BEST Methodology Appendix, but I throw in the link here as a convenience:

http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Methods-Appendix-GIGS-13-103a.pdf

In the cut and paste of the graphic I also included the caption which explains the blue cloud and the various colored lines in the figure.

First, the black line corresponds to the modeled correlation and is the correlation function. It is a three (3) parameter model fit to the blue dots (pair-correlation vs. pair distance). See Eqn 14 on p. 4 in the Appendix. Because it is a model it is easy to extend it down to distance = 0. The colored lines are move range calculations and that would explain why they do no go all the way down to zero. For the record they have absolutely no bearing on my reply above.

A key idea behind kriging is that the correlation vs. distance points based on the observed data are replaced by a model of the relationship. This is a necessity in order to solve the kriging equations for weighting factors ultimately used in the interpolation part. To be very clear the ‘observed’ pair correlations and pair distances are not explicitly used in solution of the kriging equations. This applies to kriging in general and not just the BEST approach.

IMO extrapolation back to a nugget (distance equals 0) having three decimals both isn’t a joke and is a joke. There is no doubt that fitting correlation function is subject to errors. But I do note if anyone wants to assert it is a joke then it would seem to me that they would need to make that statement in terms of quantitative effects on the dowmstream interpolated values. This of course also applies to the BEST team with respect to making statements about the quality of their results. They of course did some error analyses which in theory can be examined. I defer commenting of the history of blog discussions, etc. Life is too short and it is a complex subject.

I disagree with you on the matter of the on the correlation behavior at large distance–with the caveat that probably if one goes out to the very large distances things fall apart because the number of paired observations drops. Certainly in the figure the spherical model seems to work quite well in tracking with the blue cloud. Also note that the useful part of the correlation function is that part that where the correlation is a varying function of pair separation distance, i.e., the regimes prior to the plateau. That distance is roughly indicated by dmax, one of the three parameters of the model. The discussion on pp. 4-5 discuss this a little.

Anyway, that is my story, and I’m sticking to it. I of course do not speak for BEST.

HTH and best regards, Willis … although I suspect you might be mumbling, ” Gee willikers, another model?!’ about now. :O)

mwg

Comment on Week in review – politics and policy edition by JCH

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Large numbers of Algerians travelled to Afghanistan to fight the Russians. Our country helped train them. When they returned to Algeria they were radicalized. They won an election, but the Algerian military intervened. This was followed by a prolonged, incredibly brutal civil war.

In the 1990s you uninformed, vapid individual.

While my wife worked in the Algerian Sahara, they said around 150,000 Algerians were killed in the fighting.

France assisted the moderate Algerians in a number of ways. They were very quiet about it, which is one reason why the moderates have prevailed… so far. But I have no doubt people like you who cannot think very well and don’t know much at all could figure out a way to undo it.

Comment on Week in review – politics and policy edition by brentns1

Comment on Week in review – politics and policy edition by Don Monfort

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I will admit that I don’t read your BS all that carefully, dolt. So you are saying that because of the history between the French and Algeria, you are never surprised that it’s an Algerian who commits an act of terrorism in France. Happens often, does it? And this incident could be a delayed reaction to the Algerian Civil War. Well, let’s see:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_France

I see three incidents from 1994-96 committed by Armed Islamic Group (Algerians). Carlos the Jackal did more than that by himself. Various Palestinian terrorist organizations, Hezbolla, Angry Armenians and domestic goons like ETA, Corsicans and Bretons are far more likely to have committed terrorist acts in France than Algerians. Why don’t you stop the foolishness?


Comment on Week in review – science edition by Steven Mosher

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Thanks mw

the hilarious think is that it was guys like willis, briggs, romanM, a whole load of skeptics who suggested the various techniques we used.

guess they liked the approach before they saw the result.

any way who would have thought skeptics would attck an approach that has 8 times the error of the phil jones they attacked for being too small?

go figure.

Comment on Week in review – politics and policy edition by JCH

Comment on Week in review – politics and policy edition by aneipris

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Steyn gives me hope. If as he calls it with his usual trenchanv wit, the clogged toilet that is the DC justice system ever gets around to actually holding this trial, meaning to finally get Mikey M. up on the stand so Steyn’s attorneys can skewer him good and proper, it will gladden the hearts of skeptics the world over. We’re lucky to have him…

Comment on Week in review – science edition by Mike Flynn

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Steven Mosher,

You wrote –

“the hilarious think is that it was guys like willis, briggs, romanM, a whole load of skeptics who suggested the various techniques we used.”

The silly thing is that the whole exercise was and is pointless. You might just as well have analysed actual surface temperatures, but of course, this would have achieved just as little.

What are you trying to achieve? Can you think of a single benefit from this whole “climate change” charade?

It seems you are convinced that the world is somehow “warming”, in spite of four and a half billion years of evidence to the contrary. The only minor problem with your efforts at peering into the future is that you can’t actually provide anything useful. When, where, how much, quantifiable effects – all these seem to be of supreme indifference to such as yourself.

Even the most pedestrian psychic or astrologer will give you specifics – the tall dark handsome stranger, the four children, future prosperity, and all the rest. At least there is something positive to look forward to, even if it is all complete guesswork – nonsense, even.

You and your lot predict only gloom, disaster and despair. What a bleak and joyless world you would have us all live in! Or are we all supposed to go back to pre industrial times? Is this your vision of the Golden Age?

You claim the debate is over. The masses may care to differ. If you wish to continue the debate, some people claim that mass debating to excess will send you blind, or give you hairy palms.

I’m not sure whether measurebators suffer the same consequences.

Cheers.

Comment on A perspective on uncertainty and climate science by An Inquirer

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We will never develop a national consensus to act unless we both acknowledge the uncertainty in the consensus view and allow differing views to be heard. If we keep on our current course of action, knowledgeable people will destroy us with our failed predictions and rightfully ignore us for stifling debate.

Comment on Week in review – politics and policy edition by Don Monfort

Comment on Week in review – science edition by Nick Stokes

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“as well as an explanation of just how Hansen and Lebedeff got such a different answer from yours”

One reason is that they are plotting sub-regions. Some approached close to 1, some less.

Another reason is that H&L only allowed pairs with 50 years of common data, vs BEST 10. The nugget includes the random error of the measure. That’s a lot higher with 10 years.


Comment on Week in review – science edition by Nick Stokes

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The other big difference between BEST and H&L is that BEST is monthly, H&L annual. Again, monthly has more non-spatial noise.

Comment on Week in review – politics and policy edition by ianl8888

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> … the clogged toilet that is the DC justice system ever gets around to actually holding this trial …

Admittedly I have a bias against trusting authority (this very much includes judges), based on a quite long lifetime of experience, but it is my view that the DC Court circuit has absolutely no intention of **ever** deciding anything concrete here

Comment on Accountability for Climate Change Damages: Is Fossil Fuel Like Tobacco? by Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #205 | Watts Up With That?

Comment on Lomborg: Impact of Current Climate Proposals by Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #205 | Watts Up With That?

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