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Comment on Reactions on the Senate hearing by PA

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Several things:
1. How did conservative get red and the left get blue. I like blue.
2. Neither the deniers or the warmers are lying exactly but they are working at the upper and lower bounds of what is known. The problem isn’t that they are wrong, the problem is we don’t understand the problem and there is too much uncertainty..
3.. We don’t need a red team or a blue team. We need purple team. We aren’t interested in fantasy scenarios at the error bounds we are interested in what is likely to happen..
4. The RCPs need to be rewritten to reflect peak fossil energy in 2040. The people that wrote the 1000+ PPM outyear RCP scenarios need be replaced with people from industry who can provide informed input on future fossil fuel consumption rates. The RCPs need to reflect the declining efficiency of the carbon emissions to atmospheric transfer.

A better understanding through study of the atmospheric/ocean physics, natural forcings, and the environmental response to more CO2, together with more realistic scenarios will better guide to making future decisions.

Since the cost of deployment is much higher than the cost of development we would be better served on working on development of new energy technologies and deferring deployment until the “science is really settled” or the systems are justified in their own right..


Comment on Reactions on the Senate hearing by Steven Mosher

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The trick is SKEPTICS DID THERE OWN SERIES.. years ago..
two top notch guys… Jeffid and RomanM

Guess what?

It was warmer than CRU

Now of course that effort has been forgotten

Glad fizzy magic and others fell for it… too funny

Skeptics red team?

They cant even find a water boy

Comment on Can Coal-Fired Plants be Re-Powered Today with Stored Energy from Wind and Solar? by Curious George

Comment on Scientists & identity-protective cognition by opluso

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tomdesabla:

You didn’t provide a link to the article for us to see the actual quote and context. But the Mass Shooting Tracker site appears to be accurate as far as events involving multiple victims in America — regardless of FBI definitions.

Given that most people haven’t practiced with live ammo against moving human targets, the killed-to-wounded ratio in mass shootings isn’t very surprising.

Comment on Scientists & identity-protective cognition by popesclimatetheory

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Why do we need an accurate “scientists vote”? Has science suddenly become a democracy?

No, we don’t need a scientists vote. They would most likely only count the 75 who are in the consensus.

We do need to know what people believe. We do need to hear the consensus theories and know what data they have to support their theories. Actually we know what the people in the Consensus believe, the media tells us that every day. They are weak on real data, they present flawed model output.

We do need to hear the theories from those who disagree and know what data they have to support their theories.

We need to discuss and debate and try to pick a best theory. We need to repeat this process, forever.

Consensus is a halt in this process of always trying to prove accepted theories wrong and considering that new or different theories might be right.
This must be fixed.

Comment on Open thread by JCH

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I view that period as affirming my conclusions on AGW and the big ACO2 knob. <a href="http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1998.08/plot/rss/from:1998.08/to:2015.83/trend/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1998.08/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1998.08/to:2015.83/trend" rel="nofollow">I may have found some satellites that actually work.</a>

Comment on Reactions on the Senate hearing by mwgrant

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J-Person

One of my replies is in moderation. When it emerges you will see that crossed up the ‘…157’ and ‘…156’ links–answering the former there. My apologies. So here is ‘…156’.

I do not pay attention to either the whining or gloating. It is all calculated anyway.

mw

Comment on Open thread by physicistdave

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popesclimatetheory wrote:
>Most skeptics do not dispute that CO2 should cause some warming.

Well, perhaps more accurate to say “most skeptics who are scientifically literate…” Remember the “sky dragon” nonsenses a while back around here? *Those* skeptics did indeed deny that CO2 causes warming.

You have accurately characterized the views of most skeptics who are actually scientists.

We should add that many “skeptics” (I think this would include Judith) are not sure that warming will not be a problem: they simply think the alarmists have not yet made a convincing case.

Dave Miller in Sacramento


Comment on Scientists & identity-protective cognition by PA

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Hmm. GMSL rise of 1.2 ± 0.2 mm/year in 1900–1990

The rate of sea level rise as I read the above chart, should the lowest it has been in a long time. Much lower than the pre-1990 period.

Why does the CU Sea Level Research Group and other satellite computed GMSL sources show a rate of sea level rise of over 1.2 mm/year???

Comment on Open thread by Peter Lang

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Bjorn Lomborg says:

“Using the best individual and collectively peer-reviewed economic models, the total cost of Paris — through slower GDP growth from higher energy costs — will reach $1-2 trillion every year from 2030.”

For what benefit?

“The UNFCCC estimates that if every country makes every single promised Paris Treaty carbon cut between 2016 and 2030 to the fullest extent possible and there is no carbon leakage, CO2 emissions will be cut by 56 Gt by 2030.”

This is no joke. This treaty is catastrophic for human development, human well being and for civility and peace.

Comment on Open thread by Peter Lang

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Have any Aussies here discovered how much Australia has committed? How much per year and how much will it reduce economic growth?

Comment on Open thread by Peter Lang

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Lomborg says:

“Claims that carbon cuts will be free or even generate economic growth don’t stack up given today’s technology. Every economic model shows real costs. If not, we wouldn’t need the Paris treaty: every nation would stampede to voluntarily cut CO2 and get rich.

The agreement to spend $100bn on climate aid is a poor way to help the developing world. Their citizens clearly say, this is their lowest policy priority and climate aid provided by handing out solar panels has meagre benefits compared with the many better, cheaper ways to help, like investing in immunisation, girls’ education, and family planning. While billions lack food, health, water and education, distributing solar panels is simply immoral.”

Comment on German Energiewende – Modern Miracle or Major Misstep by catweazle666

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Peter Lang: “A person who displays such intellectual dishonesty should not be awarded an PhD, especially by a prestigious UK university.”

Peter, you really need to be careful feeding trolls, it can get messy!

Comment on Open thread by catweazle666

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Joseph: “You haven’t explained why it’s a farce. So again you aren’t making any sense as usual.”

Jailbird Jim Hansen went further than farce, he calls it fraud.

James Hansen, father of climate change awareness, calls Paris talks ‘a fraud’

The former Nasa scientist criticizes the talks, intended to reach a new global deal on cutting carbon emissions beyond 2020, as ‘no action, just promises’

Mere mention of the Paris climate talks is enough to make James Hansen grumpy. The former Nasa scientist, considered the father of global awareness of climate change, is a soft-spoken, almost diffident Iowan. But when he talks about the gathering of nearly 200 nations, his demeanor changes.

“It’s a fraud really, a fake,” he says, rubbing his head. “It’s just bullshit for them to say: ‘We’ll have a 2C warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.’ It’s just worthless words. There is no action, just promises. As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned.”

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/12/james-hansen-climate-change-paris-talks-fraud

Comment on German Energiewende – Modern Miracle or Major Misstep by Peter Lang

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catweazle666,

Thanks. Wow, How on earth can some one who is so intellectually dishonest be doing a PhD? Especially at a once prestigious university?


Comment on Open thread by catweazle666

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James Hansen, father of climate change awareness, calls Paris talks ‘a fraud’

The former Nasa scientist criticizes the talks, intended to reach a new global deal on cutting carbon emissions beyond 2020, as ‘no action, just promises’

Mere mention of the Paris climate talks is enough to make James Hansen grumpy. The former Nasa scientist, considered the father of global awareness of climate change, is a soft-spoken, almost diffident Iowan. But when he talks about the gathering of nearly 200 nations, his demeanor changes.

“It’s a fraud really, a fake,” he says, rubbing his head. “It’s just bullshit for them to say: ‘We’ll have a 2C warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.’ It’s just worthless words. There is no action, just promises. As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned.”

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/12/james-hansen-climate-change-paris-talks-fraud

Comment on German Energiewende – Modern Miracle or Major Misstep by Peter Lang

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The analysis used LCOE numbers and breakdowns from what you previously quoted as an authoritative source, as you wanted. It includes costs of full CCGT backup for the onshore wind and solar PV renewables generation, as you wanted. It used capacity factors for renewables from your acknowledged authoritative source (EIA), as you wanted.

That is id exceedingly dishonest. I’ve said repeatedly the analysis is nonsense, not just selection of the inputs, but the whole analysis.

It’s gross misrepresentation – just plain dishonest.

Comment on Scientists & identity-protective cognition by rhhardin

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There’s something called the Law of Genre in lit crit.

It says that the means by which something announces what genre it is is itself outside the genre.

The way somebody shows that they’re a climate scientist is outside climate science.

The only pure form would not announce that it’s climate science at all. Say tinkering out of curiosity on this or that.

Comment on Open thread by bobdroege

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Seawater has maximum density at minimum temperature making it different from freshwater.

Comment on Scientists & identity-protective cognition by PA

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Extrapolating, then, one might infer that professional judgment might indeed fail to insulate from the biasing effects of identity-protective cognition scientists whose professional identity has become identified strongly with particular factual claims.

The basic problem is much of the “strong warming” community has adopted positions that look extreme given the last 15 years. They have climbed so far out on on a limb that it will be very difficult to recover.

There are two ways to embrace reality: an objective reanalysis of the data with a neutral or low warming viewpoint.

Or the way people in the strong warming community traditionally embrace non-conforming information:

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