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Comment on Week in review – science edition by Hilary Ostrov (aka hro001)

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No wonder Weaver was confusing ability to predict with ability to explain – knowledge with unknowledge – science with fiction.

Interesting, or at the very least amusing – well, at least to me – that the confused Weaver of those days should have been followed – albeit many moons later – by an equally confused now former IPCC-nik, dutifully robed in academic clothing, also named Weaver!

Canadian climate modeller, Andrew <climate change is a barrage of intergalactic missiles> Weaver; aka a Greenpeace parrot par excellence, is currently known as the “historic” first Green Party member of the British Columbia provincial legislature.

This latter-day Weaver continues to spread his green gospel hither and yon. Sometimes he’s even aided and abetted by the superbly mis-informed – but totally dedicated – Federal Green Party MP, Elizabeth May;-)

Small world, eh?!


Comment on Open thread by Peter Davies

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catweazle666,

You should always be very wary of a graph purporting to show the models are high on the right hand side when the fitting on the left hand side also shows them high. i.e. throughout the whole graph the models always look high. You can see clearly on the left hand side of the chart that temperatures up to 2000 are higher than the models only on a couple of peaks, while there are quite a few cases where temperatures are lower than the models for considerable periods of time.

As a good example of the poor vertical fitting, the model fit is two thirds of the way up the 1997/8 temperature peak, yet this is known to be a huge El Nino period. A better fit at the start of what you consider the “pause” (which is what you fallaciously believe disproves AGW) would be to shift the model line down everywhere so that the 1998 intersection was much closer to the bottom of the left hand of the peak. If you do that then the 2009/10 model and actual lines touch.

So the impression from the chart that the models run hot is purely because whoever wrote the chart has decided to cheat with the relative vertical placement of the two lines.

And we are generally most interested in surface temperatures. The RSS and latest UAH temperature data sets now include only around a 16% fraction of surface temperatures in them, with 84% from higher altitudes. Therefore the surface temperature data sets (GISS, Cowtan & Way) are more relevant to decisions on AGW than the satellite data sets. And the RSS guys have said their own satellite data set is less accurate than the surface temperature data sets though the UAH guys dispute it. The surface temperature data set warming comes mainly from the sea surface warming (since 70% of the earth is ocean), and earlier sea surface measurement have had to be adjusted up to remove a cool bias (water in buckets tends to evaporate and cool the sample).

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by David L. Hagen

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<B>Streetlight Fallacy</b> An excellent example of the <a href="http://medianism.org/2013/10/20/the-streetlight-fallacy/" / rel="nofollow">"Streetlight Fallacy"</a> of selective biased data evaluation rather than full examination of all the data for the truth.

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by Mike Flynn

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It’s fairly likely that 100% of people sharing a common delusion will agree with each other.

An example of such a delusion might be where otherwise sane and rational people believe that radiation absorbed by CO2, resulting in heating of the gas, is somehow multiplied and retransmitted, resulting in more energy exiting the gas than was absorbed. The deluded resort to all sorts of physically nonsensical justifications to account for ignoring the laws oh thermodynamics.

For example, they will say that radiation from the ground, say, provides additional energy, which is perfectly true, and perfectly misleading. They purposely forget to mention that when the ground loses energy, its temperature drops.This is demonstrated in practice at night. There’s no such thing as a free lunch, where energy is concerned.

Attempts to confuse the issue by using terms such as Transient Climate Sensitivity or Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, merely serve to reinforce the delusional thinking. It will be noted that climate is the average of weather, and, as such, is not sensitive to anything other than weather history, being a mathematical average of something which has already occurred.

One might as well claim authority for the existence of phlogiston, the aether, or the indivisibility of the atom, based on majority acclamation for these ideas.

Maybe the concern about the percentage of people believing in this fantasy, or that fantasy, is misplaced. One cannot cure psychosis by rational discussion, regardless of the impression given by TV shows.

Maybe we’re all destined to death by slow boiling, but after four and a half billion years of sunshine falling on the Earth without it heating up at all, the prospect looks unlikely to me.

Cheers.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

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The whole idea of ‘homogenization’ is not to actually remove errantly introduced warming bias (UHI effect). Rather, it is to indelibly redistribute the amount of the error throughout the record.

That’s what I thought, at first. Would that it were! That would hide the divergence, but at least it would not make it worse.

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by aaron

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Yeah. What, do you expect cooling within two years? I think we might see a lot of latent heat release (ie, big increase in snow and ice, if not this year, within 10), that will raise troposphere temps. There’s a lot of heat in the ocean surface now. It will take time for it to radiate away. I don’t really expect warming or cooling over the next 5 years or so.

If we don’t see an upward step change after this el Nino, likely hood global warming will be anything but beneficial is pretty much nil.

Comment on Week in review – science edition by knutesea

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<blockquote>The only important challenge is to figure out the technical, political and economic way to reduce air pollution and decarbonize the west, India and China</blockquote> where do i send a check ?

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

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<i>NG got us covered.</i> You can say that, again. And again. And again.

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by franktoo

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Willard: Since I’ve never been able to finish “Atlas Shrugged” (too depressing), I’m not John Galt. If I took inspiration from anyone in writing this post, it would be Steve Mosher – who once advised others stop complaining and do something. He certainly has done so. (His obscure comments on blogs certainly are annoying.) And from ScienceofDoom, whose physics has survived all the challenges I have made. However, there is nothing in his climate physics that demands a high climate sensitivity.

Listening to the repeated comments about the 97% consensus at the recent Senate hearing finally prompted me do someithing – after years of hearing the same thing from Obama, Kerry, etc. And I thought I would be taken more seriously if I used my real name. After commenting as Frank elsewhere, I was forced to adopt another name here and I chose “franktoo” in a hurry to distinguish myself from another Frank. A bad choice.

I would prefer to be dealing with purely scientific issues rather than the consensus. But the fundaments problem is that non-quantitative attribution doesn’t justify an particular policy. To see why, you need to travel from quantitative attribution to ECS and then to a policy relevant to that ECS.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

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Ooh, you mustn’t go there. Today we try them? Tomorrow they try us. Let’s just do science.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

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<i>The thought of Raquel Welch wearing nothing but a short Pancho is titillating. Even more if said Pancho was, in turn, wearing nothing more than his birthday suit!</i> We are more concerned with heat sinks than heat sources.

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by franktoo

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John: I find the ignorance appalling and blame the scientific allies of both sides. I don’t believe in Schneider’s “ethical double bind”: If you’re a scientist, act like one – with all the caveats. If you are a scientist who feels compelled to tell scary stories, warn you audience that you are speaking as an extremely well-informed advocate for a particular policy.

On the other hand, I haven’t been required to do this in a Senate hearing (:)).

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

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So skeptics are keeping the data secret to stop anyone finding anything wrong with it?
Hmmmm

Hmm. Anyone who knows me would know better than to ask such a question.

If you do not look at it and find at least one thing wrong with it I shall feel like a absolute wallflower.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

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Or maybe we are all just doing our science the best way we know how. Speaking personally, I have enjoyed the ride.

C’mon, y’all. The politicking isn’t what’s going to endure, anyway. When the dust clears, it’s the work that counts.

Science is the dog. Politics is the big fluffy tail. No one sees the dog for the tail. But the tail ultimately goes where the dog goes.


Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by aaron

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

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So in layman’s terms the ‘professional climos’ corrupted the good data to make it match the bad data.

They aren’t supposed to do that.

I don’t think they meant to.

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by Willard

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Thank you, Frank Hobbs. Your name doesn’t ring a bell, and just knowing your name doesn’t tell me much. Usually Judy writes a blurb to present her guest bloggers, and you may consider my comment as a roundabout way to ask for it.

Since you answered, I’ll take a look at your article if I have a minute. I must admit I spent so many time on it that “my eyes glaze over it,” as the Auditor once said of something else.

As a first remark, however, I can say this. I don’t think a non-quantitative attribution justifies a particular policy either. To assume that attribution justifies a particular policy would fall into what is (mistakenly) called the linear model. So if that was your reason to write this, I don’t think it was well spent.

We already know enough to act upon the risks associated to AGW. We already act upon it anyway. Denizens are just here to rehearse Beckett’s Endgame.

You might like this short video:

Thank you for responding,

w

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by popesclimatetheory

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