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Comment on Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus by climatereason

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mosomoso

I am spiritually gifting you a membership of the Cloud Appreciation Society.

https://cloudappreciationsociety.org/

Perhaps you can join and write off the cost as research using the constant stream of funds you get from big Bamboo?

A happy Christmas to you, its only hours away from it for you.

Me? I still have to negotiate the Christingle service with our grand daughter and then the midnight carol service. All with a hacking cough. That should delight the congregation.

tonyb


Comment on Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus by climatereason

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Peter

In my last article last month I said this;

“A future area of my research relates to updating work by Hubert Lamb who created an interesting graphic of the number of days in a year that the UK (and generally Europe) has South Westerly winds. The data begins in 1340 and ends in around 1978. I have asked the Met Office for the source of the data whereby Lambs’ graphic can be updated on a like for like basis, as the wind direction in recent decades may have a bearing on the current temperature decline.”

The Met Office have been unable to directly supply the information I want but have been helpful in pointing me to other potential sources of information.

Winds and jet streams are of crucial importance to determining our daily weather, The sun and clouds are closely related to our weather also. They all seem a much more logical candidate than co2 for the changing weather/climate we can observe over the centuries.

tonyb.

Comment on Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus by Nick Stokes

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Well, the pper is <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2297/full" rel="nofollow">here</a>. Sec 5.2 is on SST. Here is the full text: <i>"SSTs are better modelled by ordinary kriging. When the calculation is performed with SSTs only, the range of the variogram is 915 km (compared with 830 km with land–ocean data) and the optimum cross-validation results are obtained for s = 0.0 (i.e. ordinary kriging) or s = 0.2; this is consistent with the poor correlation between SST and satellite temperatures (section 3). However, the kriging results are only marginally better than the null reconstruction. Given the difference in the optimum value of s, is it reasonable to use a single approach for land and ocean data? For short extrapolation ranges (e.g. one cell in latitude or 550 km), the difference between kriging and the hybrid method is small and at midlatitudes the unobserved regions in the SST data tend to be small and isolated; thus the choice of infilling method makes little difference. The only large contiguous unobserved regions in the SST data are in the Arctic and Southern Oceans. These regions are also characterized by seasonal or perennial sea ice, which must be considered separately."</i>

Comment on The new climate ‘deniers’ by Peter Lang

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No more wine for the Scots until the next interglacial, ~100,000 years from now.

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by ...and Then There's Physics

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While implausible, it does also explain why his data cannot be reproduced in later queries.

No, it simply means that a Professor of Economics is incapable of realising that given that they defined social science papers as “not climate related” that they used the Science Citation Index in Web of Science only. If you restrict your search in this way, you can indeed largely reproduce their data. Of course, it’s not exactly the same, since any search done now will include a few abstracts that were added after the paper was published. Most would realise that no study can be expected to include data that was only introduced after the study was complete. It seems that a Professor of Economics also doesn’t understand that time travel is still not possible.

Comment on Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus by mosomoso

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I really agree with many of the aims of that society. Don’t like cloudless conditions. Those years when we get strong westerlies starting in late winter and you can’t buy a cloud till late September are the pits. That’s why Spring can be so dangerous in these parts: dry heat and inland winds after frost. The dead bladey grass and bracken are like napalm waiting to go off. It was supposed to happen this year for Super-Nino…but squelch!

I remember spending late Spring in Siena and being horrified by the lack of afternoon cloud let alone thunder after baking hot days. The Tuscan sky just stayed the same all week. No wind, either. Wouldn’t happen here between the Great Divide and the Tasman Sea! (Well, not often.)

I’m guessing cloud has cooled today by about ten degrees centigrade. Adjust accordingly! If you call it eleven or nine nobody will notice once the dodgy max reading goes into the pot with all the other dodgy max readings.

Merry Christmas. tonyb!

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by beththeserf

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Say Peter, krige us some of yr cool Canberra temps
fer Xmas why don’cha? Here down south we’ve had
hot, hot, hot. Tsk! Whether is so variable. Ask tony b.

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by Peter Lang

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ATTP,

No, it simply means that a Professor of Economics is incapable of realising that ….

It seems that a Professor of Economics also doesn’t understand that time travel is still not possible.

Why do your feel you need to make such rude replies to someone who has done so much for quantitative analysis of what is actually relevant for rational policy analysis and decision making? Do you really think such rudeness boosts your stature, or is it just an ego trip?

Happy Christmas Richard Tol, and everyone else, (even those who are deniers of the relevant facts).


Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by ...and Then There's Physics

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Peter,

Why do your feel you need to make such rude replies to someone who has done so much for quantitative analysis of what is actually relevant for rational policy analysis and decision making?

I’ve no idea why you think you’re in a position to comment on other people’s supposed rudeness. Is it only others who are expected to be polite?

The real reason I posted the comment in the manner that I did is because this issue is so absolutely trivial that someone of Richard’s stature should be embarrassed to ask the questions that he’s asking. If he doesn’t like this being pointed out, maybe he should stop asking stupid questions.

Comment on Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus by Peter M Davies

Comment on Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus by beththeserf

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Correcting the record Peter M, 2nd last comment fer
the year. ) Plus one fer Xmas and New Year, Peter.

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by David Springer

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If I had a dog with face like Ken Rice I’d shave its ass and teach it to walk backwards.

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by ...and Then There's Physics

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Springer,
Oh no, Peter’s going to be very upset that you’ve been rude…..oh, hold on?

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by David Springer

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I thought you needed company. It appeared you were the only assh0le in the thread. Merry Christmas dummy.

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by David Springer

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I thought you needed company. It appeared you were the only assh0le in the thread. Merry Christmas dopey.


Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by Richard Tol (@RichardTol)

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@wottsy
SSCI v SCI does not explain the discrepancy. WoS does retain when an entry was added to the database, so while time travel is not possible, you can reconstruct historical queries.

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by ...and Then There's Physics

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<blockquote> SSCI v SCI does not explain the discrepancy. </blockquote> I did a search in May 2013 that returned <a href="https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2013/05/28/web-of-lack-of-knowledge/#comment-420" rel="nofollow">12547</a>. Cook et als original - completed in May 2012 - returned 12465. If I do the search today I get 12605. Seems pretty consistent to me. I'm pretty sure you'll disagree. <blockquote> WoS does retain when an entry was added to the database, so while time travel is not possible, you can reconstruct historical queries. </blockquote> This appears to <a href="https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2015/09/15/more-nonsense-sorry-nonsensus-from-richard-tol/#comment-63030" rel="nofollow">not be true</a>. I have tried to do this myself, unsucessfully. I've also asked you how to do this and you have yet to explain. You could always do so. If you're right you could also go back and do a search using Science Citation Index only for May2012 and see what you get. You haven't done so.

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by wijnand2015

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Mosomoso,

You don’t need to see the 1910-40 rise.
That isn’t the rise you are looking for.
You can go about your business.
Move along.

Comment on Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus by Peter M Davies

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by Richard Tol (@RichardTol)

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@wottsy
12547 – 12465 = 82 > 64

64 is the number of Category 1 papers by Cook.

In other words, if Cook’s missing papers are missing for any other reasons than his clumsiness in downloading data, then his headline result would be substantially different.

It would therefore be good if Cook could explain the discrepancies in sample size.

Note that they were alerted to this a long time ago, and have ignored the matter.

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