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Comment on Loaded (?) dice by pokerguy

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Still not sure if we have a bet, or even what we’re betting on. I’m a gamer though. You name it, and we’ll work it out.

Funny how Doctor Jeb, Superhero PhD Extraordinare seems to have disappeared after I offered to let him be the final arbiter as to who wins in a proposed bet with me….after he implied he wouldn’t take a bet because there’s no way the denizens could be fair.


Comment on Loaded (?) dice by Robert

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We've seen these sudden falls from grace before. It resembles a pathopsychological phenomenon called "splitting": <blockquote>Splitting is a term that came out of classical (psychoanalytical or psychodynamic) schools of thought and refers to an unconscious ego defense mechanism by which <b>a fairly complex entity cannot be accepted into consciousness in its entirety because it contains aspects that are both acceptable to a person as well as unacceptable. Relatively underdeveloped personalities, most especially borderline personalities, have a hard time incorporating into consciousness seemingly contradictory aspects of the same person or thing.</b> So, they unconsciously separate or “split” objects into two categories, seeing the “good” side of a person or thing as the part they find acceptable and the “bad” side of the person or thing as the part they find painful or unacceptable. And, it’s much more than just seeing both a good and a bad side to everything. They actually “split” a single entity into two opposing realities, conceptualizing for example a mother who has both a gentle and a terrifying side as alternately “good mommy,” or “bad mommy.” <b>As a result, they will often alternate between over-idealizing and devaluing the same person. </b></blockquote>

Comment on Loaded (?) dice by John another

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If the ‘lost’ data is of such little consequence, why is the team spending millions and breaking FOI laws to keep it out of reach of anyone not of the team?
There does not appear to be much agreement between the team (and it’s megaphones) with skeptics and realist wrt natural change in just our own Holocene. It would seem to some, that it only cools locally and warms globally.
No, IMHO, the instruments let alone proxies, are not good enough to pin down tenths of a degree (a useless metric by itself) per century. But that is not what the teams obstruction and obfuscation are about now is it?

Comment on Loaded (?) dice by Robert

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“How many quotes would you say I’d need to cast doubt on his sincerity”

Just one — from you, expressing doubts about Muller’s sincerity BEFORE Muller teased his preliminary results.

Without that, selective quotations of a guy whose results you don’t like are never going to be persuasive.

Comment on Loaded (?) dice by A fan of *MORE* discourse

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LOL … PokerGuy, for fearlessly sharing your love of animals, I hereby stipulate that you are the winnder our bet (no matter what it was), and therefore, I hereby pledge to donate $10 to your favored charity, PETA. For the simple reason, that under no circumstance should PETA be the loser by our wager!   :)   :)   :)

In tribute to which, let it be poetry hour here on Climate Etc. ;…

Walking the Dog

Two universes mosey down the street
Connected by love and a leash and nothing else.
Mostly I look at lamplight through the leaves
While he mooches along with tail up and snout down,
Getting a secret knowledge through the nose
Almost entirely hidden from my sight.

We stand while he’s enraptured by a bush
Till I can’t stand our standing any more
And haul him off; for our relationship
Is patience balancing to this side tug
And that side drag; a pair of symbionts
Contented not to think each other’s thoughts.

[ … verses unlikely to pass the filter  …]

Whereon we both with dignity walk home
And just to show who’s master I write the poem.

    — Howard Nemerov

Thank you, Pokerguy!   :)   :)   :)

Comment on Loaded (?) dice by Joshua

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Hey PG -

Surprised you have any left over from last night…

The quest to brand him as a “skeptic, like the question to brand him as not a ” “skeptic,” like the quest to brand him as a “warmist,” or someone of low character, or someone who isn’t sincere, or as a back-stabber, etc., reflect nothing other than what we already knew: The debate is characterized by juvenile banter, and people have a binary mentality when it serves their purpose and focus on nuance when it serves their purposes.All you need to do is watch how the camps switched how they characterized him contingent on the results of his research.

Not having met the man, I’m reluctant to judge his character. In truth, it doesn’t matter how people might want to see him labeled, or even how he might label himself – except as a window onto the dynamic of the debate.

Comment on Loaded (?) dice by pokerguy

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Another obscure reply that I’m just not following. The guy said he’s now a “converted skeptic.” I’m simply challenging that statement on the basis of 3 unambiguous previous statements…which pretty clearly indicate that he was never a skeptic in the first place. Which everyone knows anyway…

So help me understand Robert/Josh.

Comment on Loaded (?) dice by pokerguy

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I see, Josh. Ok. But let’s not forget, these are his terms: “skeptic/”converted skeptic.” Whether his position is more nuanced than that…and with muller it seems to all depends on who he’s talking to. And let’s also not forget, that’s also the point the NYT’s is wanting you to take away. That a previous “skeptic” has, upon further reflection and much energetic research, changed his mind. Both sides want apostates, because there testimony has more weight.


Comment on Loaded (?) dice by pokerguy

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Though not sure you can call a “converted skeptic” an apostate since skepticism is not a belief per se.

Comment on A new release from Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature by sunshinehours1

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I prefer mine for two reasons.

1) Five year averages give a better sense of how it was warmer in the past.

2) Graphing the monthly anomalies gives you a better sense of climate.

I always associate UHI with a Tmin that warms faster than TMax.

Comment on A new release from Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature by Paul Vaughan

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I don’t trust this guy Muller.
This “BEST” team appears grossly incompetent.
There’s too much hair-splitting interest in “BEST” and land temperature issues more generally. It’s comical to see the insane lengths people go to arguing +0.1 this or -0.1 that. This accomplishes NOTHING towards understanding natural climate variations. Everyone runs from the heavy lifting, looking for light chores.
As for politics? What’s needed is a climate blog focused on exploration of natural variability with zero tolerance for politics.

Comment on A new release from Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature by Chris Colose

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steven,

The surface station stuff is very good work on your part, but I agree with Eli on attribution. No one really believes anymore you can do a formal attribution without considering the spatio-temporal patterns.

Comment on A new release from Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature by stevenmosher

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All entities are posits. The operational question is how parsimonious are you and does the posit actually explain anything that cannot be explained otherwise. If you want to discuss immaterial things, I’ll suggest a priest.

and
“It offends the aesthetic sense of us who have a taste for desert landscapes”

Comment on A new release from Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature by Brandon Shollenberger

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I never like looking at the correlation of a data set to a subset of itself. Because of that, I decided to do a quick comparison between the UK and US. That score was only .31. It’s not very impressive.

Comment on A new release from Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature by stevenmosher

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“Finally there are the political or personal issues that have been raised around the subject. We know of no way to see into the hearts of men. Science provides us with some safeguards against personal bias: sharing data and sharing code. See the new website for those resources.”

You should have read to the end of our article paul.
The point isnt whether you can trust him or not.
There is no neverland free of politics.


Comment on A new release from Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature by vukcevic

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Hi Steven
- Robert is talking nonsense
- Steven you are suppose to be true scientist, not cherry picking the dates, take 1730s, or 1770s both pre-industrial and calculate your difference.
- Stating that the CET doesn’t correlate you are wrong.
There is a good record since 1880’s and what it shows is not what you suggest, the CET correlates well both with N.Hemisphere where most of global records originate and even with global records as I show here.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net//CETGNH.htm
CET is only reliable consistent long record available, and anyone dismissing its significance should not be taken seriously.

Comment on A new release from Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature by Paul_K

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Zeke,
If my name and reputation were going to be associated with such a spurious argument, I would want a piece of 2 by 4 in my hand while I had that “debate”. I think it was very wise of Dr Curry to distance herself publicly from that particular conclusion.

Incidentally, I accidentally created a new sockpuppet “P”, when trying to input my normal handle. There is only one of me, erm, or do I say that there is only one of us.

Comment on A new release from Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature by stevenmosher

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“The uptick in DTR may be simply explained by the decrease in cloudiness (and albedo) observed between 1981 and 1999 according to the international cloud project data. At least one paper has used this relationship the other way around to infer some GCR influence i.e. using local measurements of DTR as a proxy for the change in local level of cloudiness. (I can’t be bothered to look up the reference.)”

yes, I’m familar with that paper. unfortunately I believe it was tied to Forbush events. those are transients.

http://www.r-bloggers.com/forbush-events/

http://www.astrophys-space-sci-trans.net/7/315/2011/astra-7-315-2011.pdf

to explain a secular increase of cloudiness you need something other than Forbush events.

Comment on A new release from Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature by Zeke Hausfather

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Paul_K,

If you look closely, you will notice that my name is not on the results paper. Not that I disagree with the results per se, but I think that Richard is right to attribute the majority of the warming of the last 50 years to anthropogenic causes but for the wrong reasons.

Comment on Loaded (?) dice by John another

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Well, it seems Alternative 1 and 2 are a wash Mr ‘discourse’. And judging from the response of Michael Mann, Connolley, Revkin, etc. they’re not too impressed with the Muller paper either.
Regarding your question; Dr Muller is now the unmasked leader of his own ego. With the medias help, this will no doubt drive business to his consulting company and it gives fodder for fools for taxation. but this in no way establishes him as a leader of a movement that requires no leader anymore than it needs to sit down with all of the editors and producers of MSM in a deep dark dungeon to say “Hey folks, this is how your gonna do it”.
Common ideology begets common behavior begets common funding begets common self preservation begets common lies begets……well lets just put it this way; seven of the ten richest counties in the United States of America geographically touch the District of Columbia (Washington DC if you are one of the one in five in America who are not aware that the earth revolves around the Sun or one of half of the remaining eighty per cent that don’t know it takes a year to do so but somehow have a right to vote; thank you for progressive education and teachers unions). Does that seem right to you.
Meanwhile, back to common ideology begets common behavior, did you ever hear of the expression ‘useful idiot’?
When was the last time you ever heard of someone of your philosophical bent needing, let alone actually requesting an FOI of the skeptics or the realist? What do you have to hide when so much is at stake? If the science is settled then bring it on, worts and all. We don’t care if truth is ugly or pretty.
Posted previously, but once again what is the ideal temperature of this specific planet and how many species will thrive or perish at this temperature your bureaucracy has deemed politically correct?
Transparent and falsifiable data…………….more please and thank you.

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