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Comment on Observation-based (?) attribution by captdallas2 0.8 +0.2 or -0.4

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Dr. Gates, for a short time period, picking out sublet changes is not a simple matter. If you look at the first half of the ENSO region you can see the rough response curve similar to these.

http://redneckphysics.blogspot.com/2012/07/there-are-no-steps-it-is-constant.html

The shape of those curves should be related to the heat capacity or thermal inertia of the “thermal layers” being impacted. The ENSO region is not an isolated system, Energy will be transferred up/ down and horizontally. So I have been playing with comparing the energy transfer response time to the northern and southern extents of the oceans.

http://redneckphysics.blogspot.com/2012/07/thermal-inertia.html

That linear estimation method is kind of cheesy, but it appears to be good enough for exploring possibilities. Based on that crude analysis, the heat capacity and rate of energy flow from the ENSO region sets up oscillations that vary with the heat capacity of the adjacent regions. Like waves in a pond, you get different amplitudes and patterns.

When you have the stratosphere following the same approach curve as the SST, there is a little better confidence that there has been a regime change, that dragon king.

All circumstantial currently, but more and more things are falling into place.


Comment on Observation-based (?) attribution by Bart R

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curryja | July 31, 2012 at 10:19 am |

Dr. Curry, this is a simplification of the case of difficulties with complex systems that vaults over broad categories and settles only on a single set of cases.

Some complex systems are not subject to some experiment on some scales.

Where the scale is appropriate to the measure, that is where there is convergence of central tendency, then even the most complex system is entirely subject to experiment.

Mendel conducted controlled experiments on some of the most complex systems imaginable by restricting himself to experiments on scales that would show convergence of central tendency to the mean in the scope of his researches.

Observations showed this convergence because the same mean outcomes were repeatable in trial after trial.

This same repeatability is present in many aspects of climate on many scales, over and over again. In particular, one can take CO2 level in the atmosphere (modified by aerosol level) and correlate with temperature if the time span is decadal-to-multidecadal and the size of the region is large enough. This repeatability fails in only a small minority of cases on such scales, matching well our confidence levels.

This is not because the climate system is simple. This is because the tool of the scientific method to simplify is elegant and robust.

Comment on Observation-based (?) attribution by Bart R

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Beth Cooper | July 31, 2012 at 3:24 am |

He forgot to double-count? Though it appears he may have counted alarmist deniers, which could cause him to loop.

Comment on Observation-based (?) attribution by P.E.

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We know that density differences matter, because that’s how UF6 centrifuges work. The second law isn’t broken; the density gradient becomes one more term in the equilibrium equation. Thermo works fine when you include everything.

Comment on Observation-based (?) attribution by DocMartyn

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Actually gbaikie, I would venture to guess that the temperature of your aquatic planet would be dependent on the salinity of the oceans. The greater the salinity, the higher the Tmax.
With an elliptical orbit the seasonal differences would be greater, with increasing salt. You will have a Mediterranean/Red Sea situation on a global basis whereby the summer sun increases the surface salinity, which cools in the winter and sinks.

Comment on A new release from Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature by Bart R

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lurker, passing through laughing | July 30, 2012 at 11:11 am |

So, that’s a “yes” to my question then.

Comment on Observation-based (?) attribution by Joshua

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Thanks, Willard. I’ve tried talking to Brandon about his oft’ repeated “that makes no sense” (and many variants that he peppers comments with).

Unfortunately, his responses on that subject never made any sense.

Comment on Observation-based (?) attribution by Joshua

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Has anyone seen the bus? Where’s that bus?


Comment on Observation-based (?) attribution by captdallas2 0.8 +0.2 or -0.4

Comment on Observation-based (?) attribution by Pekka Pirilä

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Centrifuges are certainly well known in many fields of science and engineering and there’s nothing in them that I would call even “apparent breakage of second law”. Molecular ratios vary a little also in the troposphere but very little because the convective mixing process is much stronger than the diffusive process that would lead to the same differences as those I presented for non-interactive molecules. If we would have an isothermal atmosphere we would also have those significant differences in molecular ratios.

In a centrifuge the diffusive separation is enhanced so much that a significant enrichment of heavier molecules near the outer surface results. Repeating the enrichment very many times in very high speed centrifuges allows for separation of uranium isotopes 235 and 238 as well.

As you say the Earth system is not an equilibrium system. It’s rather an approximately stationary non-equilibrium system driven by solar radiation. Daily and seasonal variability presents deviations from the stationarity as does the longer term variability. The state of the oceans settles very slowly and may still be significantly influenced by history as far back as the last ice age. The observation that OTEC power plants are possible does not tell much about that because the required temperature differences are maintained by the quasi-stationary processes.

The understanding of the oceans is obviously incomplete but as with other parts of the Earth system many things are fairly well known while some others are not understood as well at all. Making statements on any particular issue without thorough knowledge of the present state of science is just empty speculation. Personally I trust that my knowledge of physics can tell a few things but is totally insufficient for judging the level of knowledge on most of oceanic phenomena.

Comment on Observation-based (?) attribution by Joshua

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In fact, I think that maybe we’re going to need a couple of buses. Ain’t enough room under just one bus.

Comment on Observation-based (?) attribution by captdallas2 0.8 +0.2 or -0.4

Comment on Observation-based (?) attribution by JCH

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btw Doug, I think you found the most important paragraph in the article, and it has gone barely noticed.

Comment on A new release from Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature by timg56

Comment on John Christy’s EPW testimony by Joshua


Comment on John Christy’s EPW testimony by Jim D

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Pekka, I am not seeing the problem as a significant. The grid cells each have a histogram of seasonal average temperature. These are combined by basically normalizing by the standard deviation. This gives the frequency of 3-sigma anomalies defined from 1951-1980 and how that changes. is changing. However, I do see that increased frequency doesn’t translate so easily to increased area if the variance changes non-uniformly. From his map plots, he did however also show increased area of the 3-sigma perturbation which was along the lines expected. Combined with the area information, the histogram is useful.

Comment on John Christy’s EPW testimony by Louise

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Dr Curry, Christy refers to Watts’ recent (as yet unpublished) study in his written evidence. Bearing in mind the flaws that one of Watts’ co-authors has pointed out: “I was only on the paper a short time and I overlooked an important issue, which Anthony had paid insufficient attention to”, do you think it was correct of Christy to include reference to this study?

Comment on John Christy’s EPW testimony by ivp0

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Michael says: “Christy’s point about mid-western drought is a touch of slight-of-hand as well.”
Hardly. Slight of hand would be more like “hiding the decline” or using upside down Tiljander proxies and insisting they are correct even after the original author pointed out they were being misapplied. Climate changes and severe droughts have happened throughout human history with no input from man. There is no evidence to suggest that recent events are any different:
“By 5000 to 3000 BC average global temperatures reached their maximum level during the Holocene and were 1 to 2 degrees Celsius warmer than they are today. Climatologists call this period the Climatic Optimum. During the Climatic Optimum, many of the Earth’s great ancient civilizations began and flourished. In Africa, the Nile River had three times its present volume, indicating a much larger tropical region.

From 3000 to 2000 BC a cooling trend occurred. This cooling caused large drops in sea level and the emergence of many islands (Bahamas) and coastal areas that are still above sea level today. A short warming trend took place from 2000 to 1500 BC, followed once again by colder conditions. Colder temperatures from 1500 – 750 BC caused renewed ice growth in continental glaciers and alpine glaciers, and a sea level drop of between 2 to 3 meters below present day levels.

The period from 750 BC – 800 AD saw warming up to 150 BC. Temperatures, however, did not get as warm as the Climatic Optimum. During the time of Roman Empire (150 BC – 300 AD) a cooling began that lasted until about 900 AD. At its height, the cooling caused the Nile River (829 AD) and the Black Sea (800-801 AD) to freeze.

The period 900 – 1200 AD has been called the Little Climatic Optimum. It represents the warmest climate since the Climatic Optimum. During this period, the Vikings established settlements on Greenland and Iceland. The snow line in the Rocky Mountains was about 370 meters above current levels. A period of cool and more extreme weather followed the Little Climatic Optimum. A great drought in the American southwest occurred between 1276 and 1299. There are records of floods, great droughts and extreme seasonal climate fluctuations up to the 1400s.

From 1550 to 1850 AD global temperatures were at their coldest since the beginning of the Holocene. Scientists call this period the Little Ice Age. During the Little Ice Age, the average annual temperature of the Northern Hemisphere was about 1.0 degree Celsius lower than today. During the period 1580 to 1600, the western United States experienced one of its longest and most severe droughts in the last 500 years. Cold weather in Iceland from 1753 and 1759 caused 25% of the population to die from crop failure and famine. Newspapers in New England were calling 1816 the year without a summer.”

Comment on Observation-based (?) attribution by GaryM

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Muller is a default progressive. That is why he has never been a skeptic of CAGW. All his friends and colleagues believe the same things. So it is no wonder he sees attribution every chance he gets. BEST was created for political reasons, just like the IPCC. The IPCC was the general combined PR arm of various progressive politicians designed to provide propaganda to implement their central planning policies dressed up as science. BEST was designed for the specific purpose of providing a response, which turned out to be preemptive because of Watts’ pre-publication sharing of data.

But the movement is political the science is politicized, and the results oif both the IPCC and BEST have been precisely as designed. But what the feckless “climate scientists” have never realized is exactly how far their propaganda is intended to push western society. They just know progressive polices are all about “fairness” and “for the children.”

But here is where the real progressives, the movers and shakers of the left, are taking us.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/312807/burn-down-suburbs-stanley-kurtz

“In July of 2011, Kruglik’s Building One America held a conference at the White House. Orfield and Rusk made presentations, and afterwards Kruglik personally met with the president in the Oval Office. The ultimate goal of the movement led by Kruglik, Rusk, and Orfield is quite literally to abolish the suburbs. Knowing that this could never happen through outright annexation by nearby cities, they’ve developed ways to coax suburbs to slowly forfeit their independence.

One approach is to force suburban residents into densely packed cities by blocking development on the outskirts of metropolitan areas, and by discouraging driving with a blizzard of taxes, fees, and regulations. Step two is to move the poor out of cities by imposing low-income-housing quotas on development in middle-class suburbs. Step three is to export the controversial “regional tax-base sharing” scheme currently in place in the Minneapolis–St. Paul area to the rest of the country. Under this program, a portion of suburban tax money flows into a common regional pot, which is then effectively redistributed to urban, and a few less well-off “inner-ring” suburban, municipalities.

The Obama administration, stocked with “regionalist” appointees, has been advancing this ambitious plan quietly for the past four years. Efforts to discourage driving and to press development into densely packed cities are justified by reference to fears of global warming. Leaders of the crusade against “sprawl” very consciously use environmental concerns as a cover for their redistributive schemes.”

Comment on John Christy’s EPW testimony by Pekka Pirilä

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Jim,

We know that the average temperatures have risen (even skeptics agree on that if not on the origin of that). As average temperature have risen the natural null hypothesis is that the distribution of the temperatures around the new averages is similar to the earlier distribution around earlier average. Observing that in data is not particularly interesting.

Hansen et al made the claim that that’s not the whole story but that they can observe significant widening in the distribution. That would be significant if found to be true, but now the analysis of Tamino and similar analysis by John N-G appear to tell that the conclusion was based on an erroneous analysis and unlikely to be true. There may be broadening but it’s unlikely that it can be seen on a statistically significant level, but as far as know nobody has repeated the full analysis without the serious error.

The comparisons of values from individual stations are all right but making a frequency distribution of the results is not (or at least it does not support the conclusions drawn in the paper). I think that the same error affects seriously also the map based graphics presented in the paper.

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