‘Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge.’ (Wardekker et al) So what do you do ‘when the facts are uncertain, values in dispute,stakes are high and decisions are urgent?’ (Ravetz.)
Well, seems ter me, that given that the facts are uncertain, how can we say fer sure that decisions are urgent or that if we make decisions they’ll be the right ones fer a black swan event? Several denizens here have pointed out we’re at the high end of the interglacial and climate change could well mean a transition into an ice age. Temperature charts and CO2 emission graphs are not in sync … seems like its not easy predicting future climate.
Stakes are high? Hmm, sometimes the cure can be worse than the disease? Exchanging efficient energy sources fer costly, inefficient and intermittant renewables affects people’s livelihoods and productivity. And how “bad’ would be global warming of a possible couple of degrees anyway? Say, cold can be pretty “bad’ for human communities. Paleo- history – records periods of climate deterioration in the Middle Ages, between the 4th and 8th centuries and particularly The Black Death of 1348/9 paint a bleak picture of societies decimated by famine and plague. The period after The Black Death saw social upheaval in France and Flanders and The Peasants’ Revolt in England.
(The Oxford History of Medieval Europe edit G Holmes.)
Human distress took many forms. H Zisser in ‘Rats, Lice and History’ mentions epidemics of dancing mania in the Middle Ages, common after The Black Death, known as St John’s dance, St Vitas’ dance, which appeared not to be diseases of the nervous system but rather,
‘mass hysteria brought about by terror and despair in populations oppressed, famished and wretched to a degree almost unimaginable today.’
The last European famine since the Industrial Revolution was, I believe, the Irish potato Famine of 1845, a cool, wet summer in Ireland. Since then, despite Erlich’s predictions industrial high tech nations have been able to keep food production in step with population growth.
So what about future insurance?. If we don’t know where we’re heading with the great climate seesaw, what can we do ter give us the best odds of dealing with whatever unknown challenges the climate throws at us?
Should we rely on central committee high – tax – outlay 5 year plans and 10 year plans, based on uncertainty? … Or should we should we promote and encourage free market innovation and enterprise, restricting government taxes ter fostering education and basics that government does best. Amen.
