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Comment on Open thread weekend by Doug Cotton

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I’m not really interested in responding to generalised statements such as Pekka makes assertively. If he, or anyone, can produce a believable alternative explanation based on physics for the observed temperature at the base of the Venus atmosphere then I’ll be all ears. So I challenge you.

Empirical evidence speaks volumes. In contrast, empty assertive statements like “Maxwell and Botzmann were right” are not science, and are like water off a duck’s back. I have the evidence on my side, and I think you would find that most, if not all of about 150 members of PSI would agree. Many are far better qualified than several commenters here I suspect, but qualifications are not what it’s all about. The proven laws of physics will always hold firm, and that’s what you’re up against. The laws of physics prove Maxwell and Boltzmann wrong on this issue.

Of course there’s a correlation between PE and KE. It is simply that, for an object in motion in a frictionless situation in a gravitational field, PE+KE=constant assuming no addition or loss of energy.

The temperature difference in the vertical cylinder would be about 0.02 C degree if it is about 3 metres high, for example. It is not a direct result of pressure difference, nor of any air movement such as convection. Even Wikipedia will explain to you (under “diffusion”) what the difference is.

No, simple consideration of the physics involved proves that the equilibrium is not isothermal (except in a horizontal plane) but it is such that the sum of PE+KE is constant. This happens because molecules in “free flight” between collisions experience an interchange of PE and KE, just like a stone you throw or a golf ball you drive.

Capt… refers to the specific heat quite correctly. At 275K the SH of CO2 is about 0.819 and that of an air mix of nitrogen and oxygen only is about 1.014, so carbon dioxide makes the gradient steeper, and thus the surface temperature higher – by about two thousandths of a degree. But other cooling effects, mostly absorbing incident insolation in the 2 micron band, totally eclipse this 0.002 degree warming effect. Double your CO2 and get 0.004 degree – wow!


Comment on Open thread weekend by Brandon Shollenberger

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Joshua, I not-so-subtly called you a hypocrite for criticizing Peter Lang but not WebHubTelescope. You responded by quoting Lang and criticizing him more. Was your goal to make a stupid and non-responsive comment in order to divert discussion? If so, you succeeded.

If not, might I suggest you are as bad at reading as Peter Lang is?

Comment on Open thread weekend by Joshua

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Brandon -

I posted Peter’s comments because it seemed that you were confused – and thought that anything that WHT did or didn’t post somehow made Peter’s paranoid and grandiose delusions any less hilarious.

I figured that posting Peter’s actual comments might clear up your confusion. Apparently not.

Well, horses and water and all that, eh?

Comment on Open thread weekend by WebHubTelescope

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“And yet, when WebHubTelescope said this site’s comment section wasn’t indexed at Google because people had decided the commentary here was too low-quality, you… said nothing. “

Yes it is indeed very low-quality commentary. Consider that some poor sap Googles “temperature trends” and they find 10,000 graphs by Girma, believing it is significant.

The only thing good about the indexing is that I can easily find all the lies by Manacker and all the failed predictions by Chef Wiggles.

I was hoping that it would continue to not be indexed, but Springer just had to lend a helping hand on how to reconfigure the site.
I always said that this is more of a twitter feed than anything else, and it still is.

Comment on Open thread weekend by newclimatechangetheory

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  <B>JimD</b> My response to your comment is from about the second section onwards in <a href="http://principia-scientific.org/supportnews/latest-news/67-the-greenhouse-gas-blanket-that-fails-to-warm-the-world.html" rel="nofollow"><b>this article</b></a>. Of course the surface is hotter than 255K. And the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesopause" rel="nofollow">mesopause</a> (at the top of the mesosphere) is something like 175K. Can you accept that the weighed mean is somewhere between? By the way, the 255K is based on a false assumption that the Sun only delivers a quarter as much insolation 24 hours a day to a flat disk-shaped "Earth." So the 255K figure is about as imaginary as a flat Earth. Try something like 230K (or less) as a more accurate calculation based on integrating over a rotating sphere - somewhat more like the real thing, don't you think? So, from the mesopause to the surface we have something like 175K to 288K with a weighted mean around 230K or less. The whole plot is under the control of gravity, not radiating gases which send the energy off to space.  

Comment on Open thread weekend by Jim D

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So you are saying that a non-GHG gas emits IR upwards from colder layers to average out the surface temperature? How is this a non-GHG gas then? And why is it only emitting upwards?

Comment on Open thread weekend by Brandon Shollenberger

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Joshua, thanks for clarifying you are, in fact, as bad at reading as Peter Lang.

WebHubTelescope, thanks for showing you feel no shame about posting whackjob theories.

You two should get together. I think you’d make a lovely pair.

Comment on Open thread weekend by gbaikie

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In regard to Venus. It seems the sun heats liquids and solids in the atmosphere at the higher elevations. These liquids/solids heat up the gases, and the gases rise being replaced cooler gases which heated up and rise.
This mixes the gases and raises the clouds.
And given enough time, and through various mixing [including the diffusion of hot gas with lower cooler gas] the atmosphere become as hot as gas can heat in these higher elevation, which convert into higher temperature gas as works down to surface and more pressure.

One part about mixing is if gas become significant warmer than surround gas at that elevation it rises, and it accelerates rather than keeping some fixed velocity, this acceleration can make the gas go higher just it’s buoyancy allows, and then it slows, then drops- and one can get downdraft or wind shear


Comment on Open thread weekend by Peter Davies

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Peter Lang, the choice of a moderator is indeed difficult. To clarify my suggestion I would add that this wiki would need to be closed so that only a few volunteers may access it and edit it. Else it will most likely end up as most other discussions do on this and other blogs.

The purpose is to subject climate science to a most rigorous and searching examination and to provide options for further study and development. Not knowing what will come out of this process is a most definite requirement because most climate studies that I have read appear to have prejudged results from confirmation bias. This is definitely a nono!

In answer to Steven’s question, a byproduct of this compendium could well be to inform policy if it can be clearly demonstrated that such policies need to be adjusted or fine tuned. It may well be that there is insufficient evidence from the review process of the literature and that further work is needed before policymakers can safely proceed or it may be found that the evidence is more than sufficient. No prejudgments!

Comment on Open thread weekend by Peter Davies

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Sorry Peter L, I misread Steven’s post. The policy issue is one that you have stated often as being of prime interest to you.

Comment on Open thread weekend by Faustino aka Genghis Cunn

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My accidental blog, “notablog,” has a couple of entries after 17 months gestation (less than a momma elephant), one on the hockey stick and a copy of a paper I’ve drawn on here. The paper is at http://wp.me/P1INsy-f

Comment on Open thread weekend by Max_OK

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“this is purely a waste of time that could be better put to some constructive use”
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True, but maybe it fulfills some need. Otherwise, why would people keep doing it?

Comment on Open thread weekend by omanuel

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The Creator’s Sense of Humor

In the immortal words of G. K. Chesterson:

“America is the only nation in the world that is founded on a creed. That creed is set forth with dogmatic and even theological lucidity in the United States Declaration of Independence; . . . it clearly names the Creator as the ultimate authority from whom these equal rights are derived.

http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/262437-america-is-the-only-nation-in-the-world-that-is

Today the joke is on those who built the internet to facilitate totalitarian control of human civilization on planet Earth, only to realize that their Creator had built a much larger internet that controls a region of space extending ~120 AU out from the Sun’s pulsar core, engulfing a region of space larger than ten billion, billion Earths, >10,000,000,000,000,000,000 or (10^19) Earths.

http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-1883

Comment on Open thread weekend by Peter Lang

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Peter Davies,

Thanks you for the two responses.

Peter Lang, the choice of a moderator is indeed difficult. To clarify my suggestion I would add that this wiki would need to be closed so that only a few volunteers may access it and edit it.

The intent is good, but how would they be selected. The selection for the IPCC didn’t work, so how would it work for the wiki idea? This is the key issue. We have an enormous orthodoxy which has won over the press, the editors of the Journals and sufficient of the politically inclined in the bodies like Royal Society and NAS, that the whole process is now corrupted.http://enthusiasmscepticismscience.wordpress.com/2012/03/15/the-corruption-of-the-royal-society-in-the-climate-emergency/

It will take decades for science to recover its reputation. How do you propose to select suitable people to oversee this wiki idea of yours?

The policy issue is one that you have stated often as being of prime interest to you.

It’s not just me who is focused on the relevance of the science to policy. It’s nearly everyone who has to vote for governments and the policies offered. If the climate science isn’t focused on providing policy relevant information, we should be asking why are funding it?

Comment on Multidecadal climate to within a millikelvin by vrpratt

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Great questions, Max!

How realistic is this?

There are two parts to my analysis of HadCRUT3: describe, then explain.

Questions like yours about realism of a description can only concern explanations of it, not the description itself. As someone perfectly capable of doing the relevant arithmetic I stand strongly behind my description, but nowhere near as strongly behind my explanation. So to answer your question (which I take to be about explanation), not much until I get buy-in from others about whether my explanation (in terms of seismic events at the two mantle boundaries) is at all realistic.

Doesn’t Hansen posit a much longer time lag in his “pipeline” postulation?

Where? And how much longer?

You take out the TSI impact of the 11-year solar cycle. Does this smoothing also consider any other solar mechanisms (e.g. Svensmark), or does this even matter to the analysis?

The simple answer is that it doesn’t matter because the phenomenon Svensmark points to, namely the interaction between the galactic magnetic field and the Sun’s, operates on the same 21-year cycle that F3 removes.

However it’s an interesting question nonetheless. One grad student in hydrology asked me during the poster session this afternoon whether it would ok for him to cite Svensmark’s paper in support of his analysis of cycles in Indian hydrology. I told him that the papers of Ney and Dickinson on the same subject in respectively 1959 and 1975 would serve that purpose much better, not only for priority but also because they did not have the axe to grind that Svensmark does.

How is the unusually high level of 20th century solar activity handled?

Numbers, please.

Is the 1940-1970 MRES smoothing for increased aerosols a convenient fit or are there empirical data to support it?

If you’re referring to the 1950-1980 “bump” in MRES, how is it “convenient?” I wish it would go away. Please play with the Excel spreadsheet so that you can see what I mean. To the question “who ordered that?” it wasn’t me.

Same question goes for the 1970-1980 reduction in MRES and the increase after 1990.

Same answer.

Was the intent of this study to end up with the underlying exponential warming curve or did that just happen after all the noise was filtered out?

Great question. My analysis was in two steps: describe, then explain.

The tendency in climate science has been to eyeball the data and proceed right away to the explanation. All along the “underlying exponential warming curve” was in the back of my mind, but it seemed to me intellectually dishonest to infer it from inadequately described data such as the 162 numbers in the raw HadCRUT3VGL times series, which was just a mess of numbers.

I addressed this concern by reducing 162 numbers to 9. Part of this was done by applying F3, which I estimate to reduce the dimension from 162 to 16.

By putting up with a poor R2 (well less than 1), one can typically lop off a few more dimensions.

In this case the dimensionality went from 16 to 9 with an R2 of 0.9998.

Whereas I only play a statistician on YouTube, MattStat/MatthewRMarler is a real statistician, so I would defer to him on the question of whether 16 –> 9 vs. 0.9997 was significant. What say you, Matt?

(I asked Persi Diaconis this question a couple of months ago and he inclined towards significance. Seems like an interesting question.)


Comment on Open thread weekend by Beth Cooper

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Doug Cotton, thx fer reply. I will look at yr published papers.

Comment on Open thread weekend by newclimatechangetheory

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  And, by the way, far more energy enters the Earth's oceans from space (where you'll find a Sun) than goes directly from the ocean back to space. Most energy leaving the ocean is transported to the atmosphere by diffusion, evaporative cooling and a small amount of radiation, just a tiny bit of which gets through the atmospheric window to space. So far more radiation enters the ocean than leaves it. The 95% CO2 is not confined to the "surface layer" of Venus. The whole atmosphere is about 96.5% carbon dioxide, which increases the lapse rate because that rate is inversely proportional to <i>Cp</i> which is the specific heat in the equation derived for the dry adiabatic lapse rate <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lapse_rate" rel="nofollow">here</a>. Next time, get your facts right first, because you just made these three mistakes. Doug Cotton

Comment on Multidecadal climate to within a millikelvin by vrpratt

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The fit seems too precise given the errors in the temp records though.

If a million temperature measurements each have an uncertainty (however defined) of one degree, then a parameter inferred from them will have an uncertainty of 1/sqrt(1000000) = one millikelvin.

Bias is always a problem, but I didn’t get the sense that bias was your primary complaint.

Comment on Open thread weekend by newclimatechangetheory

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With about twice as much Solar insolation striking the top of the Venus atmosphere and more than half of it getting absorbed before the mid point, and over 97% being absorbed by the time the radiation gets down to the base of the atmosphere, why isn’t the Venus atmosphere like Earth’s ocean, namely warmer at the top where more energy enters ???

Comment on Multidecadal climate to within a millikelvin by Vaughan Pratt

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Yes, though not at the journal level. It is easier to find AGU-FM posters that contradict each other than Nature articles.

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