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Comment on Open thread weekend by Memphis

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Skeptical Warmist,
OK, so if after the next La Nina there is still no appreciable warming, you’ll reconsider. Fair enough.
(I wonder what the Team’s take on this is though?)

Also fair enough is the suggestion that the oceans will take up much of any increase in the earth’s heat content there might be. However, unless the atmosphere also warms, and warms before the oceans, you cannot say that any ocean warming is attributable to CO2 increases, since these by definition warm the atmosphere, resulting later in less conductive & convective cooling of the oceans to the atmosphere (as you yourself have mentioned).

Happy Xmas.


Comment on Cli-Fi by andywest2012

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Heh, not exactly what I had in mind for that passage, but now that you mention it, I can see where you’re coming from. Maybe he’s the worm’s hiss, like the psychologisers are its slaver…

Comment on The Goldilocks Principle by kim

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The first two times CO2 was rising at a trivial rate, certainly much different than the third time. You can try to talk yourself out of this but it is a killer point.

When the temperature curve deviates from the course determined by natural climate changes. Sure, it’s a tough one, and requires better understanding of natural climate processes. So let’s do it, otherwise, you’ll be just guessing, and will be basing desperately important policy on guesses, and stand a fine chance of getting policy wrong, desperately.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by BatedBreath

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@Gates <i>Both physical theory and the models based on that theory show the greatest enthalpy increase at all times related to AGW to be first and foremost occurring in the oceans. </i> Models I can believe, they say whatever their authors parametrize them to say. But physical theory? I thought the physics of AGW was that longwave radiation from the earth is captured by CO2 et al, which warms the <i>atmosphere</i>. This then <i>results</i> in warming elsewhere, eg oceans, but with no atmospheric warming to cause ocean warming, any ocean warming discovered to exist cannot be pinned on AGW. Note that the oceans being a far greater heat sink that the atmosphere, has no bearing whatever on the above argument.

Comment on The Goldilocks Principle by kim

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You have another think coming if you think the governments of poor countries are going to deny their people the opportunity for wealth available through cheap energy on the wild guesses of a precious coterie of climate scientists who mock the scientific method, destroyed peer review in their field, deliberately blinded themselves to natural climate change, and now complain about the ‘diversity’ entering their ranks.
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Comment on Cli-Fi by kim

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Missed the hiss, but now we got the worm hisself.
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Comment on Cli-Fi by Wagathon

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I see capitalism as being outside the zeitgeist of the worm analogy. There are choices of socialism is the gutless worm. No one can work in a free enterprise economy without being caring of others, being optimistic about life and giving totally of oneself: the capitalist must actually provide something of value to someone else or the capitalist does not eat (e.g. see the video, Jiro Dreams of Sushi).

And others are proud of their modicum of righteousness, and for the sake of it do violence to all things: so that the world is drowned in their unrighteousness.

Ah! how ineptly cometh the word “virtue” out of their mouth! And when they say: “I am just,” it always soundeth like: “I am just–revenged!”

With their virtues they want to scratch out the eyes of their enemies; and they elevate themselves only that they may lower others.


~Nietzsche (Zarathustra)

Comment on Cli-Fi by WebHubTelescope

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OK, here is a situation to test your credibility. For years theorists have predicted that a thermally pumped laser was possible and considered it a research problem. See Siegman’s classic book on lasers. Over time and especially recently, researchers have been able to get the material and the black-body form designed correctly to enable this effect on a practical scale. Thus, the consensus is growing that a thermally pumped laser using CO2 is possible.

The ignorance on your part is that the GHG effect takes only a fraction of the process that lasing would need to achieve its means. Do you not comprehend that physics theory encompasses much more than your narrow view of how it can affect the climate?

Besides infrared lasing, the radiative properties of CO2 are also responsible for how a metal smelting furnace is designed, how signals are picked up from communication satellites, and how satellite-based temperatures themselves can be measured. This explains how someone like Roy Spencer can be an AGW believer, in spite of his radical beliefs otherwise.

Physics at the mundane level of observations is about a multitude of interconnecting pieces and one cannot just dismiss the consensus view and think that physics will break down just because it is the climate that is involved.

We are in a predicament where we have a finite and limited supply of fossil fuels remaining and consensus science will likely help us get past this point. R&D based on science is a wonderful system to rally behind and make some progress.

Do you think I care what someone like Bacon, is that Francis?, has said?


Comment on Multidecadal climate to within a millikelvin by greg goodman

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LINEARITY.

The F3 filter is well designed in terms of the form of the frequency response but is only applied correctly in the central 110y of data. The 25y on each end are not filtered as intended. This is almost 1/3 of data.

The last 25y period is of particular interest since this is where the CO2 model diverges from reality so the incorrect implementation of the filter matters.

As Pekka has explained, in this period the ‘fitler’ is not longer a convolution filter since no longer has a fixed kernel. Neither is it a uniform transform, however it is still algebraically linear. This is also confirmed by the check column CK1.

This means that the numerical error introduced into F3(AGW) is equal to the error in F3(DATA-SAW)

Now since SAW was calculated to remove the deviation of the data from the model the latter term will have exactly the same long term rise as the exponential. This can also be seen in Pekka’s graphs where he corrected most of the error in the F3 filter. http://pirila.fi/energy/kuvat/VPmodif_2_3.jpg

So having distorted the data to rise at the same rate as the exponential AGW, both quantities have the same slope and are effected in the same way by the botched filter implementation.

However, since the real, unmodified data is much flatter, it will NOT be affected in the same.

This was my initial concern is seeing the AGW model being bent down to resemble the data. Similarly the distortion of the data by subtracting SAW bends the flat portion of the data up towards the exponential.

I initially, incorrectly attributed that to the filter being non-linear when I should have said non-uniform. The result is the same: the distortion to DATA is not the same as the distortion to AGW since they do not have the same rate of change in the last 25y.

Comment on Open thread weekend by Peter Lang

Comment on Cli-Fi by ianl8888

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Wot ?? LOL

You’re quoting Wiki as authority ??

Comment on Cli-Fi by manacker

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It was indeed a travesty that WUWT received an award for best science blog.

And Al Gore’s “Nobel Peace Prize”? (Or that of the IPCC?)

Comment on Open thread weekend by phatboy

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So science has in fact demonstrated a link between extreme weather and climate change, has it?
I must have missed it…

Comment on Cli-Fi by WebHubTelescope

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What does a Peace Prize have to do with science?

Comment on Open thread weekend by Pekka Pirilä

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BatedBreath,

1) There cannot be any GW without warming by definition.

2) The warming of the oceans is linked with the warming of the atmosphere, whatever the origin of the warming.

3) Over short periods the atmospheric temperature may move in the opposite direction from OHC – and “short” may be years, perhaps a few decades. (SST is more strongly linked to atmospheric temperature than to OHC)

The “A” doesn’t make any difference in any of the above. The “A” cannot cause the potential difference between the trends of OHC and atmospheric temperatures but it cannot prevent that either when natural processes are strong enough. It’s not at all excluded that AGW adds continuosly to OHC while the surface temperature and atmospheric temperature are low. Actually a reduction in these temperatures reduces OLR and may thus make the imbalance larger and speed up the warming as measured by OHC. (It’s also possible that albedo changes so much as part of the natural variability that warming is not accelerated.)


Comment on Open thread weekend by manacker

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Jim D

I know you like to think in “decades”, because (for now) it helps “prove” your point that it’s still warming (even if the record shows that it has started cooling).

But let me see if you can expand your thinking outside the decadal box.

Let’s think “five year periods” instead (to eliminate some of the “lag”).

The average annual temperature (HadCRUT3) for the 5-year periods:
1998-2002 was 0.397C
2003-2007 was 0.444C
2008-2012 was 0.403C

So you can see that it has started to cool off a bit.

Max

Comment on The Goldilocks Principle by michael hart

Comment on Open thread weekend by manacker

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Robert

Short-term, it has stopped warming, as the record shows.

Seen over several decades, it has warmed.

What will happen over the next decades is anyone’s guess, Robert, although it would seem logical that the gradual warming trend we’ve seen since 1850 will resume.

Max

Comment on Open thread weekend by manacker

Comment on Cli-Fi by Jonathan Jones

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I'm surprised you didn't mention <i>The Heretic</i> by Richard Bean: a play, not a novel, but the <a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Heretic-Oberon-Modern-Plays/dp/1849431205" rel="nofollow">script</a> is very readable. From the amazon blurb: <blockquote> A black comedy to tackle the divisive issue of climate change, The Heretic questions the position of science in the global argument and invites us to honestly consider what we think we know. The study of climate science is the cool degree at the university where Dr Diane Cassell is a lead academic in Earth Sciences. At odds with the orthodoxy over man-made climate change, she finds herself increasingly vilified and is forced to ask if the issue is political as well as personal. Could the belief in anthropogenic global warming be the most attractive religion of the 21st century? A new play from award-winning and prolific British playwright Richard Bean. Shortlisted for the 2011 Evening Standard Theatre Best New Play Award. </blockquote>
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