So which is sillier and more absurd, the ‘sixth-wave’ concept, or Phan One’s defense.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by kim
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Comment on Open thread weekend by kim
Heh, my question always is, does anybody get the point? I can always reach into the ice crypt for a cold one.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by kim
Microclimate is what Makarieva can you get.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by kim
She got eaten alive @ Id’s, and has risen cyclonically from the boney ashes. A Fire Bird.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by lolwot
you are simply barking up the wrong tree
what SS demonstrated was that recent years are consistent with continued warming.
Demanding that they go beyond this and prove whether that warming will accelerate by 2100 (and why does it have to?) is a strawman to avoid what they did show.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by kim
You know a religion is doomed when the heretics have the ear of Gaia.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by manacker
Myrrh
That’s a compelling list of evidence supporting a GH effect of (near) zero, but I think that oneuniverse has got the scientific method backward here.
“Null” = “zero” (in German)
The “null” hypothesis is that increasing CO2 has “zero” effect on our planet’s climate.
In his exchange with Jim Cripwell, it is up to oneuniverse to refute the “null” hypothesis by showing empirical evidence, which falsifies it.
It is NOT up to Jim Cripwell to provide evidence for the “null” hypothesis – it is always the other way around.
As I understand it, this is what Jim Cripwell has requested and, so far, it has not been forthcoming.
Max
PS If either Jim Cripwell or oneuniverse disagree with what I have just written, they should comment giving reasons.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by manacker
Willard, me boy
Aren’t you going to take on Manfred’s challenge?
Should be easy for a guy as intelligent and eloquent as you.
C’mon. Have a go.
Max
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Comment on Open thread weekend by David Springer
Topic: Ice Ages
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ice_Age_Temperature.png
Note that all previous interglacial periods reached temperature “anomalies” at least close to 3C and the one preceding the extant (Holocene) interglacial reached almost 6C. The only strange thing about the Holocene from this chart is that it’s anomalously cooler than the last several.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by Dennis
I’m trying to keep up here, is it a spasm or a wave?
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Comment on Open thread weekend by manacker
Yeah. Pet’s rock.
Unless they’re pet rocks.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by willard (@nevaudit)
Via Dave Roberts, a paper entitled **The Social Cost of Stochastic and Irreversible Climate Change**, by Yongyang Cai, Kenneth L. Judd, Thomas S. Lontzek:
> There is great uncertainty about the impact of anthropogenic carbon on future economic wellbeing. We use DSICE, a DSGE extension of the DICE2007 model of William Nordhaus, which incorporates beliefs about the uncertain economic impact of possible climate tipping events and uses empirically plausible parameterizations of Epstein-Zin preferences to represent attitudes towards risk. We find that the uncertainty associated with anthropogenic climate change imply carbon taxes much higher than implied by deterministic models. This analysis indicates that the absence of uncertainty in DICE2007 and similar models may result in substantial understatement of the potential benefits of policies to reduce GHG emissions.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by Dagfinn
lolwot: “what SS demonstrated was that recent years are consistent with continued warming.” I don’t even know what that means. In fact, I’m not sure that sentence makes sense. “years” (time itself?) being consistent with “warming”?
I think what they meant was to claim that there had been an actual warming trend and that that trend has remained the same. You seem to imply that they meant something weaker.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by manacker
In German we have a whole series of common “farts” (spelled “fahrts”):
Ausfahrt = exit
Einfahrt = entrance
Auffahrt = trip up
Abfahrt = departure
Rundfahrt = round trip
Hinfahrt = trip to somewhere
Rückfahrt = trip back
Himmelfahrt = Ascension
etc.
No matter where you go in Germany, you’re “fahrting” (one way or the other)
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Comment on Open thread weekend by manacker
Sure SS can conclude that recent “lack of warming” (cooling?) is “consistent with warming”.
That’s SS logic.
EVERYTHING is “consistent with warming” by definition.
But outside the very special world of SS, things look a bit different.
Max
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Comment on Open thread weekend by lolwot
The 67C figure is wrong. Absurdly so.
Do you actually have another source for that figure than wikipedia?
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Comment on Hansen on the ‘standstill’ by David Springer
Jan P Perlwitz | January 27, 2013 at 11:16 am |
manacker: “Here’s what evidence of a global warming standstill over the past decade looks like:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:2003/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2003/trend/plot/rss/from:2003/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2003/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2003/trend “
Perlwitz: Some colored lines without anything else are not sufficient as evidence in science.
Me: No true Scotsman fallacy.
Used to be monochrome scribbled field notes were evidence in science to say nothing of the researcher who published hand-drawn color plates. I guess times have changed. Karl Popper died and put Jan P. Perlwitz in charge of scientific epistemology. Isn’t that just precious?
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Comment on Open thread weekend by gbaikie
It’s tragedy for politicians that China exists, otherwise could patting themselves on the back and declaring that they caused the US CO2 emission to lower and that is why global warming has stopped.
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Comment on Hansen on the ‘standstill’ by David Wojick
Actually Max, Jan is (finally) making a well known argument, possibly several arguments lumped together. The chief one seems to be that the time interval in question is so short that noise is masking the trend. That is an empirical argument not a statistical one.
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Comment on Climate sensitivity in the AR5 SOD by Dot Earth Blog: Weaker Global Warming Seen in Study Promoted by Norway’s Research Council : One Caribbean Radio | The Global Mix
[...] same goes for Judith Curry’s long exploration of the mix of modeling and observations leading to the range of possible warming projections from a doubling of pre-industry carbon dioxide [...]
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