John:
“I’m arguing that discussion of high impact, low probability scenarios can be legitimately referred to as a ‘catastrophe narrative…”
As far as I can see from above, you claimed that I was excluding other interesting concepts relating to or including the term catastrophe, and specifically named the low probability stuff per above. Yet per my above I showed that I not only didn’t exclude such concepts, I actually noted the whole pile of these within mainstream science and related areas as perfectly legitimate. Plus as already noted, to claim that these concepts and similar *must* share the same name ‘catastrophe narrative’, when this doesn’t align to the domain linkage with ‘CAGW’, and indeed when this name would appear to overweight the concept of catastrophe for them anyhow (so precautionary principle narrative, worst case probability narrative, cascade narrative, etc seem generally much more suitable), seems like merely a semantic knot that is easily avoided. As long as the false meme / narrative elephant is clearly and separately defined from that which is not this false meme, I guess I wouldn’t really care too much if we were starting from scratch. Yet OTOH it seems a less than an ideal label for such concepts anyhow, plus the domain has long development too. I still have no idea why you think this semantic point is important; it has no effect on discussion of this principle anyhow.
“If you think something in your post does take sufficient cognizance of the precautionary principle, quote it.”
The post makes no attempt to address the precautionary principle, nor many other concepts within the domain too. To demand proof from the post for something it never attempted to address would not be a legitimate request if you know it didn’t attempt such; for future clarification, it didn’t. And inclusion of this concept, plus many others, is not any requirement to demonstrate the narrative of high certainty of imminent global catastrophe as propagated by the many authority sources, plus the use (and mal-use) of the ‘CAGW’ label particularly in relation to that false narrative. You appear to be arbitrarily redefining what the post is about; it wouldn’t be a surprise if it then failed to achieve. Given you are not using the ‘CAGW’ label in the same manner as the overwhelming majority of the domain, perhaps this leads to your PoV about what ought to be addressed (which doesn’t necessarily mean it’s valid). However, the domain usage is a given anyhow, no matter that you disagree with same, or indeed that it isn’t what either you I would likely have chosen regarding a better term. Once again, nothing at all within my post rules out the principle you reference, its history, or any other points within the debate. Once again, if you think something in my post does rule out such points, quote it.
“Just because the term is now falsely assumed by many to imply certitude is not reason enough to abandon its correct meaning. I don’t deny the memetic potency of the existing misinterpretation, I just think it is worth resisting because it misses at least one important point.”
No. The term has always included high certainty / probability. And your cause to want it changed is likely doomed. However, even if it should succeed in the future, to require that my post aligns to your desires for such a future is not reasonable.
“Don’t keep going on as if the principle is just one of many peripheral topics that could be safely de-emphasized. In fact, it should have been fully explored in your article…”
I have most certainly not de-emphasized it, safely or otherwise. It is simply not addressed by this post, and what the post does address, doesn’t predjudice your topic in any way. I haven’t addressed a thousand and one other things in the domain either, of which no doubt many folks have their favourites that they might have liked me to work into it in some way. Such desires are understandable, but no reason for inclusion.
“No, Andy. Not the thousand and one – just the one.”
Indeed, your one. As indeed others folks will have other ones. So… if you believe a critical trick is missed here by something that you think ought to have been ‘fully explored’, such that the main points that this post does address are badly let down in some way by this aspect that ‘should have been’ included, then lay out a full explanation / logic-chain, with examples / quotes from my post regarding the specific flaws and how these would be fixed by your inclusions, plus domain support / usage that aligns to your PoV for support. Maybe Judith would publish it. For sure I’d look forward to commenting on it.
“Just to be clear, I agree with all of that, if by ‘catastrophe narrative’ you mean the ‘we are all going to fry’ version.”
Okay.
“By the ‘domain’ do you mean ‘all’, ‘the majority’ or ‘an influential minority’ or something else?”
As mentioned a few times above, ‘the overwhelming majority’. No domain so large will be wholly uniform. Skeptical usage of the acronym is not in the mainstream public media, as analysis by others confirms (noted in the post or footnotes, I forget where). Hence you have to find usage spread across blogs, and as over the years I didn’t know as I was going to write this post, I have never saved links. However you can trawl here or WUWT or wherever, all usage I have seen is no way in a precautionary sense. More traffic occurs around deployment that straddles the divide when orthodox folks object to the association of catastrophe (i.e. with it’s high confidence inclusion) being associated with the science that they’re defending.
“(see, for example, EU legislation).”
All sorts of things are embodied in climate change legislation from the EU and in various national laws too. I am making no claim about any such within this post; it simply isn’t addressing that topic (and others). It points out that the catastrophe narrative is false, comes in spades from all the listed authority sources (including the highest we have) and many others, plus is correctly described by ‘CAGW’ in the context of what both sides of the domain understands regarding the meaning of this term. And that mainstream science doesn’t (as claimed) support it, which also means ‘CAGW’ is inapplicable within the same domain understanding.
“As an aside…”
Search emotively overwhelmed conditionals and morphed conditionals within the footnotes. Risk is generally mal-framed, occasionally starting as though it refers to scientific conditionals, but ending with being conditional only on our (usually very major) action, i.e. the certitude reappears and the meaning of the risks / caveats / conditionals has either been changed, or was emotively overwhelmed from the beginning by opposing certitude in the same text.
“I actually found the whole tone of your closing paragraph to be arrogantly dismissive.”
Then you’ve completely misunderstood it. I mean no rancour whatsoever. From my PoV I see nothing but the semantic line of argument as stated, which also in large part appears to rest upon an interpretation of ‘CAGW’ that is not the domain default. I fully accept that you don’t agree with the naming convention, but I don’t see a demonstration that this in any way excludes concepts such as the one you note, or damages the points that the post does make as you claim above (unless I have misunderstood this claim). Regarding the latter particularly, there is plenty to go at regarding setting out a case using my text as part of your logic chain.