John,
“The catastrophe narrative did not start when people decided that the probabilities are high; it started when people started to ignore probability.”
Okay; so I think you’ve agreed already that the catastrophe narrative as exampled is what it is from all those sources; essentially via one variant or another it’s the “we’re all gonna fry” thing. So definite certainty, and it essentially crosses the 21st century at least, and likely earlier. Nevertheless, for sure I don’t address here how it started. And while the ‘CAGW’ acronym has always included built-in certainty (I belatedly realised I have some evidence of same from at least 11 years ago in there), it’s also the case that this acronym arose a long way down the growth of the domain, and therefore a long way down the growth of discussion / evolution of various issues within it. Also as noted, this acronym is used almost exclusively on climate blogs, and except for a short time after its arisal, only by skeptics too, because the included certainty pissed off the orthodox helping lead to cultural aggression around the term. So this particular label is limited in both domain time and scope.
“…of central importance to your thesis”
Forgive me, but within this seeming confusion of meaning between us, I’m not sure what you think my ‘thesis’ actually is. And therefore whether you’re maybe trying to convince me about something that’s not a significant part of it, or indeed per your latest of something that seems to me somewhat different to before (yes, this could be my lack of prior perception). This post (and the companion post that is more about merely introducing the false meme of the catastrophe narrative and its variants), highlights the manifest existence and authority propagation of the catastrophe narrative (over at least the period of the given examples), and the falsity of it’s claim to be supported by mainstream science, plus the correct labelling and incorrect labelling of ‘CAGW’ in respect of these issues (yes in the sense of built-in certainty per usage on both sides). Yet I wasn’t aware that by citing the topic of the precautionary principle, which indeed we both agree is a wide topic in itself, you were essentially attempting to speak particularly only to origin. This is also an interesting topic, and while evidence to get a hard grip on it is hard to come by, likely involves various other elements as well as indeed the precautionary principle. Yet once the narrative has sufficient inertia, the emotive conviction and behavioural effects it prompts plus its spread and policing etc are independent of the starting conditions (same for any strong cultural narrative), and the starting conditions for this case are not explored here.
“This is not about personalities…”
Good. Yes, words can have impacts we don’t always appreciate. And tossing around terms like rancour and arrogance however quite they’re phrased, when I can assure you that I am engaging in good faith to the best of my ability, is high impact stuff. You may consider my abilities poor therefore and maybe you’d be right, but anyhow I think once again that there’s a distinct possibility we may still be talking at cross purposes, which inevitably is frustrating. I think don’t it’s unreasonable to ask, given that I still don’t know, for more about what or how the ‘central importance’ of my post is impacted by your suggestions. However, if you think you’ve already given, granted this will strike a wrong note. Which is why I thought working backwards from what you perceive the post to be about, might be a better start (it seems to me at any rate that somewhere our perceptions have muchly parted company 0: ) Yet if you wish to leave things as are, know that I respect your opinions and engagement, if not always what you say when frustration causes passion to briefly overtake you; robust implies no motive other than keenness.