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Comment on Open thread weekend by bob droege


Comment on Open thread weekend by pokerguy

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Which leads me back to me original question, “where’s the outrage?” . Hansen doesn’t seem perturbed, Trenberth of course has been looking for the missing heat for years now. Mann seemed to be putting up a fight for a while there, until it became apparent he was using charts that ended in 2006.

I’m just not seeing the reaction one would expect from those whose careers and reputations are on the line….

Comment on Open thread weekend by Tonyb

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MaxOK

It would be interesting to have the weekend thread devoted entirely to people posting their favourite temperature graph along the lines of ‘how long has the temperature been flat?’ this would be accompanied by a maximum 100 words of explanations and references.

Those of us without a particular dog in this fight could then look at the graphic evidence and decide if the temperature has been increasing as you seem to think, or flat or cooling.

A one or two year plateau is of not the slightest significance but a decade of flat temperatures would certainly give pause for thought as would evidence that the rise continues to this day. What do you think? This is not snark and I deliberately chose the heading above as that needs to be proven

Tonyb

Comment on Open thread weekend by Max_OK

Comment on Predictions of climate change impacts on fisheries can be a mirage by kim

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I suspect you may be on to something, but you don’t support the adaptability part.
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Comment on Predictions of climate change impacts on fisheries can be a mirage by Chief Hydrologist

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Solar UV is a different matter – suspected of causing top down climate modulation from interactions of solar UV/ozone in the stratosphere. This drives I believe the major variability in ocean and atmospheric indices.

Comment on Open thread weekend by kim

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I suspect some are waiting to see if unmeasured deep heat and unmeasured aerosols will fool the usual suspects, most of whom are easier to fool than thermometers.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by Max_OK

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Tony I think that would be fun.


Comment on Open thread weekend by Tonyb

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MaxOk

I will suggest it to Judith then by email although she may see this exchange
Tonyb

Comment on Open thread weekend by bob droege

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Could it be that the anthropogenic forcing is balanced by natural short term cooling and anthropogenic cooling forcings.

Better understanding of the amount of aerosol forcing in play would help.

It would also help to wait until the pause is statistically significant.

Comment on Open thread weekend by manacker

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Max_OK

Tony B is right, of course.

Sure, you can cherry-pick the exact starting point and temperature series to prove almost anything, but the fact of the matter is that the rapid warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped and, in some cases, even reversed slightly.

The real question now is not whether or not the late 20thC warming has stopped, but for how long this lack of warming will continue, even if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated and concentrations reach all-time record levels.

A secondary question then becomes at which point a continuation would act to falsify the CAGW premise as outlined by IPCC in its AR4 report: 10 more years, 15 more years, 20 more years, never?

Steven Mosher has commented his opinion on this last question above.
http://judithcurry.com/2013/04/13/open-thread-weekend-13/#comment-312246

So have I.
http://judithcurry.com/2013/04/13/open-thread-weekend-13/#comment-312285

What say you, Max? How many more years of no warming despite unabated GHG emissions would it take for you to accept that the CAGW hypothesis of IPCC has been falsified?

Max

Comment on Open thread weekend by kim

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Given a warming influence, Man’s small aliquot of fossil CO2 will either delay or halt the next glaciation. In fact, both, though the halt may be at the Oklahoma border.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by Jim Cripwell

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Bob, you write “Could it be that the anthropogenic forcing is balanced by natural short term cooling and anthropogenic cooling forcings.

Of course it could. Until we know all about natural causes of the changes in temperature, all sorts of things are possible. But I was taught the principle of parsimony; never accept a complex answer, when a simple one explains everything. The simple explanation is that EVERYTHING we have observed in global temperature changes, starting whenever you like, is caused by natural forces. So, why have anything to do with CAGW?

Comment on Open thread weekend by kim

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It’s really simple, Bob, the human race will be battling long term cold before it battles long term heat.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by manacker

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pokerguy

As we see from this thread, the first step is always “denial” when the facts on the ground fly in the face of a cherished belief or hypothesis..

This step is gradually replaced with “awareness”.

In the case of the current “lack of warming”, the “awareness” step has taken a long time for many people (some here, like lolwot and Max_OK, are still struggling with it).

Climate scientists like James E. Hansen and Kevin Trenberth seem to have recognized it, and it appears that the MSM is now also gradually becoming aware of it after an initial bout of “denial”.

The third step is “rationalization”. Even after it has become obvious that the original projection has failed and that things have turned out quite differently than the cherished hypothesis had predicted, there must have been “something else”, which caused this anomaly (since the hypothesis cannot have been wrong).

This is the stage where strange new sub-hypotheses are woven into the tale, in order to rationalize the failure of the main hypothesis.

We now have:

a) clouds reflecting the “missing heat” out into space (Trenberth #1),
b) Chinese aerosols causing higher albedo (Hansen),
c) “missing heat” disappearing into the deep ocean where it cannot be measured (Trenberth #2)
d) “missing heat” going into the latent heat of all that melting ice,

etc. etc.

Faith is a wonderful thing – once it is firmly established, it cannot be broken by mere physical evidence.

Max


Comment on Open thread weekend by lolwot

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The economist made a common blunder. The statement: “Over the past 15 years air temperatures at the Earth’s surface have been flat” is false. That’s all that matters.

Doesn’t matter who acts outraged or not, it’s false.

Comment on Predictions of climate change impacts on fisheries can be a mirage by Wagathon

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Recipe for garum: Start with the desired type and part of the fish—e.g., mostly small fishes including intestines—macerate with salt and allow to rot (cure: ferment, liquefy) in a covered pot (or ancient vessel known as an amphora) in full sunlight for about 3 months in dry, warm weather (location of fermentation should be on a hill in a deserted area of an island remote from sensitive neighbors). Draw the clear liquid off the top of the pot for use with other foods for that umami flavor (glutamic acid). An herb-infused decoction of the remaining sludge may be used as a nutritious flavor-enhancing sauce. Or, just buy some monosodium glutamate (knowing that much 2000 years ago could have made you the richest person in Rome — with your umami flavor enhancing salt — and yet today it’s probably not long before “Bloombergs” ban it from NY restaurants).

Comment on Open thread weekend by kim

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Overly sensitive study if 4 years in New Zealand makes such a difference. Not fit for policy before or after.
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Comment on Meta-uncertainty in the determination of climate sensitivity by pokerguy

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“In weighing the new evidence, especially improvements in the methodology of sensitivity analysis, it is becoming increasing difficult not to downgrade the estimates of climate sensitivity.”

Money quote, Thank you for your courage and clarity.

“It is a major coup for the freelance/citizen climate scientist movement to see Nic Lewis and Troy masters publish influential papers on this topic in leading journals.”

Agreed. All good news.

Comment on Manufacturing(?) consensus by london clubs

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As always you’ve posted by having a number of extremely exciting points and also I have already included this specific blog to one I’ll stick with .
. !

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