Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by David Springer

June 12, 2013, 2:15 pm

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With an as yet undetermined appendage Dr. Paul Pukite writes (about the graph below):

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:101/mean:103/last:90/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:191/mean:193/plot/best/mean:191/mean:193/to:1867/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:29/mean:31/last:90/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:29/mean:31/from:1988/to:1994/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2006/to:2008

You really ought to look at what Bart is trying to teach you. To be careful on how you apply windows to filter and smooth your data. To watch what happens when you take too short a section of data. Etc. etc.

It looks like what Bart is doing is madness, but there is a reason. If you were intellectually curious you woul pursue it. But alas you are not.

Paul, I agree. I think you should take the image of the referenced graph and drop it into your photobucket collection. It’ll fit right in. In the future you can produce it without explanation or source information to buttress a point. Any point. It’s an exceedingly versatile work. I admire your ability to recognize talent when you see it. Bravo. BAE is very lucky to have you.

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Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by Wagathon

June 12, 2013, 2:15 pm

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To properly understand the plateau in ‘ground-based warming’ we need to factor in what actually do know –e.g.,

…if corrected for non-greenhouse influences such as El Nino events and large volcanic eruptions, show little if any global warming since 1979… (Richard Courtney)

Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by CMS

June 12, 2013, 2:19 pm

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You know lolwot if you compare the warming periods 1910 – 1940 to 1970 – 1997 using HadCrut 4. It sure looks like it warmed faster or certainly as fast in the earlier period.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1910/to:1940/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1970/to:1997/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1910/to:1940/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1970/to:1997 or more simply http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1910/to:1940/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1970/to:1997/trend

Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by Wagathon

June 12, 2013, 2:20 pm

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Yup... If he was <em>intellectually curious</em> he would be more skeptical. But alas he is a tool.

Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by David Springer

June 12, 2013, 2:21 pm

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Did you perhaps mean to write botanist?

Next time try “plant scientist” it isn’t so hard to spell.

But seriously, it’s more apt to call it plant food than pollutant.

Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by captdallas 0.8 or less

June 12, 2013, 2:29 pm

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RiH008, “never in the same phase space.” Pretty much, but which phase space is a major question. The AMO has a high correlation with “surface” temperature and is a slower moving target. So while it would have all the basic uncertainties associated with a chaotic system, moving slow and not having as large of a variation should make it a better “climate” metric. Then you could use the oceans as the “phase space”.

So by picking a better phase space or thermodynamic frame of reference if you are old school, you can simplify the problem. But then you are required to actually use specific heat capacities to figure out how much the change in energy of the slow reference impacts the other layers or “shells” .

Climate scientists don’t seem to like looking at alternatives that simplify the solution.

Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by David Springer

June 12, 2013, 2:32 pm

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Tom Fuller | June 12, 2013 at 9:21 am | Reply

“Given the way energy consumption is increasing, any positive value for sensitivity is legitimate cause for concern about the latter half of this century.”

Energy consumption increased enormously over the past 15 years and global average temperature remained constant.

Now I know correlation doesn’t always mean causation, Tom, but lack of correlation still means lack of causation doesn’t it?

Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by Wagathon

June 12, 2013, 2:36 pm

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What is it the Left hates about people who work for a living without asking the government for permission?

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Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by Bob Droege

June 12, 2013, 2:36 pm

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David,
You are really nitpicking and misquoting Santer as much as I am, which I’ll admit is not much.
One could say that temperature records and temperature trends are synonomous in the way Santer used the term temperature records, especially since he used the word trend or trends some 5 times in the abstract of the relevant paper.
I am glad I give you so much pleasure.

Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by WebHubTelescope (@whut)

June 12, 2013, 2:36 pm

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SpringyBoy, It’s typeset in a really big font so its easy for you to read.

Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by David Springer

June 12, 2013, 2:41 pm

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You’ve been misinformed. I’m near sighted. If you’re from Pasadena or Minnesota that means I can see close up just fine. All your concern is misplaced of course but in this particular case I should probably thank you for it. So thanks.

Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by CMS

June 12, 2013, 2:41 pm

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I really don’t understand the purpose of this graph. You take a bunch of series and display their mean. Then take one series and display it with its variability. What is the point. Sure you are going to get a lot seeming movement, but it is only the variability showing. Why not just. http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:191/mean:193/plot/best/mean:191/mean:193/to:1867/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:29/mean:31/last:90/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:29/mean:31/from:1988/to:1994/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2006/to:2008 then at least you can see the variability and tell that it was even greater in the earlier part of the series.

Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by Bob Droege

June 12, 2013, 2:44 pm

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David,
Botanist, Botonist, whatever, maybe you can tell me why gardeners add CO2 to their greenhouses?
Careful, this is a trick question and the first thing that comes to your mind is likely wrong.
Spelling has never been my strong suit.

Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by Bob Droege

June 12, 2013, 2:49 pm

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You are implying that the addition of more coverage area when they changed from HADCRUT3 to HADCRUT4 was done merely to increase the temperature trend.

Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by David Springer

June 12, 2013, 2:49 pm

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Doc Martyn,

That was the most mean spirited comment I’ve seen in a while. It was so well done it brought a tear to my eye.

+1

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Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by Bob Droege

June 12, 2013, 2:52 pm

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How come cosmic rays penetrate the cloud forming regions.
If his theory had any merit, clouds would form as often at ground level.

Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by Max_OK

June 12, 2013, 2:58 pm

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OK, Waggy, I’ll factor in what you, Waggy, actually do know.

I’ll start with …

Let me see there’s …

Then theres …

OK, how about …

HELP! Waggy, I need some help here !

Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by mwgrant

June 13, 2013, 7:00 pm

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David Springer

It’s like taking a test, answer the easy ones first.

Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by kim

June 13, 2013, 7:01 pm

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But Nile River levels do correlate with Aurorae Borealis. Hmmmmmmm.
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Comment on Sociology of the ‘pause’ by Harold

June 13, 2013, 7:03 pm

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FYI -

Major Askimet fail at the end of the “Week in review 1/20/12″ thread. Don’t know how the bots got in there, but bots are not to be encouraged. They’ll come back for more if you don’t whack them.