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Comment on Open thread weekend by willard (@nevaudit)

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> Where there are marginal people – increased costs push them off the edge.

And this applies to the overall increased costs of living in the UK.

That includes rent, which is too damn high.

That includes consumption taxes, which are not regressive.

That includes penalties like the bedroom tax.

That includes subsidies which profit the rich to the expense of the poor.

There might be other things, but these are the ones I mentioned so far.

The scale of Chief and TonyB’s intellectual larceny is less outrageous than UK’s recent social policies.

But it would not take much.

Please, do continue.


Comment on Open thread weekend by climatereason

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Willard

It was YOU who raised the subject in the first place. When other denizens put ideas or canards on the table it is common to pick up those that appear controversial or interesting.. it surely proves an interest to find out things even though they had not been implicitly endorsed in the first place.

Judging by your lack of detailed response you presumably wouldn’t be interested in this?

Research report
Excess winter mortality in Europe: a cross country analysis identifying key risk factors by the journal of epidemiology and community health
http://jech.bmj.com/content/57/10/784.full

“Strong cross country relationships are found between excess mortality and relative income poverty, inequality using the Gini coefficient, composite, multiple deprivation levels and composite levels of fuel poverty. Countries with high levels of income poverty and inequality (Greece, Ireland, Portugal) also demonstrate the highest coefficient of seasonal variation in mortality (see table 4)”

There are many things that can be done Willard like improving insulation (although much has been done on this score) increasing grants to the vulnerable (although with the cuts in expenditure this is a difficult one to promote) providing power at a more realistic cost or pretending our climate isn’t cooling.. Which ones do you favour?
tonyb

Comment on Open thread weekend by climatereason

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Willard

Your second reply had not appeared when I posted. You are introducing new subjects now and shifting the debate. Can I take it you agree with the evidence that fuel poverty costs lives? I look forward to hearing of your preferred solution

I do not really disagree with too much of what you say in your second post although you must explain my intellectual larceny since I merely followed the lead you gave in framing the subject and did not introduce it.
tonyb

Comment on Open thread weekend by Chief Hydrologist

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‘Einstein probably didn’t say it’ ??? It is in the link I provided ‘attributed’ either Einstein or a Chinese proverb. There are a couple of variants. But you go too far too far to suggest it is clear cut and Einstein is a good urban myth at worst. So to play the tedious pedant and focus only on trivialities is a distraction at best.

Comment on Open thread weekend by GaryM

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History is littered with the corpses of those who followed the advice of economic illiterates that governments can print money to cure the harm done by their fiscal irresponsibility.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

When a country’s policies causes a loss of faith in the value of the currency, it doesn’t matter whether there is a technical default on bonds. The practical effect is that the government debt becomes worthless.

Have they stopped teaching about the Weimar Republic in lolwotland? Now the German hyperinflation was as much a result of Allied demands for reparations as anything else. But the German government found out the hard way that it could not simply print currency to solve its problems.

The last I checked, the beggaring of the German people in the 1920s that resulted had a few adverse consequences in the 30s and 40s.

Comment on Open thread weekend by GaryM

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OK, that should be tempterrainland. My bad. Hard to keep track of where the economic nonsense is coming from sometimes.

Comment on Open thread weekend by Chief Hydrologist

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Hi Tony,

It is a bizarre admission by wee willie that marginal people are being pushed over the edge – but because there are factors other than energy costs it doesn’t matter.

It seems little different to any other kind of fanaticism we have ever seen. In the war on climate change we must expect collateral damage.

Comment on Open thread weekend by climatereason

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tempterrain

Iceland forced themselves to swallow a bitter pill a few years ago. I was there a few weeks ago and yes they are really picking themselves up. we actually thought the prices were now fairly reasonable whereas before they were eye wateringly high. This has brought the tourists back and encouraged exports.

Unfortunately the EU has not swallowed the collective pill although a few on the outer rim are being forced to take the medicine. However in the euro strait jacket those countries who should never have been admitted to the club in the first place like Greece and Cyprus are likely to find things get worse before they get better
tonyb


Comment on Open thread weekend by willard (@nevaudit)

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TonyB, All these resources are very interesting. Thank you for them. But so much to do, and so little time. For now, two things. First, please acknowledge that you <em>do</em> implicitly endorse the 'yes, but the poor elderly will die argument. You have failed to do so before pointing your finger at me with your YOU. It now would be tough to hide that you do entertain this Monktonian claptrap. Second, please recall how it started. I mentioned a <strong>tax</strong> on fuel according to its carbon footprint. Your reflex was to connect this with skyrocketing prices. This is wrong for at least two reasons: (1) it rests on a non sequitur, insofar as such a tax might not increase prices, e.g. it could be a revenue-neutral tax; (2) it exploits a reduction fallacy, insofar as poverty is not only (not even mainly) a matter of affording energy. THIS is the Monktonian claptrap that is being debunked over and over again. Yes, people die when they don't heat themselves. But there's not a <em>single cause</em> why people can't pay their energy bills. There are other expenses to take into account. There are social choices which kinda suck right now in UK, e.g. a bedroom tax. There are institutional larcenies, like tax breaks and other kinds of subsidies, which impoverish the public to the expense of aristocratic oligarchs. An improved taxation scheme could help improve this sorry predicament. Taxation is the basis of the civilization, you know. That the poor is being used to justify privileges is an intellectual larceny more damning than anything else your climate hobby could ever produce. Please think twice before using the poor to your own sorry ends.

Comment on Open thread weekend by willard (@nevaudit)

Comment on Open thread weekend by willard (@nevaudit)

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> It is a bizarre admission by wee willie that marginal people are being pushed over the edge – but because there are factors other than energy costs it doesn’t matter.

Chief just can’t beat that energy costs are not the single cause of poverty. It’s so far from being the main one that if we’re to apply his reasoning, the overall society can be viewed as a poor killing machine.

If energy prices kill the poor, imagine unemployment.

Comment on An energy model for the future, from the 12th century by Jarmo

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I have been following the German Energiewende and their solar and wind electricity generation capacities. Right now, there is 33 GW of solar capacity in Germany that can supply 50% of consumption on a sunny day at noon. There is over 30 GW of wind generation that can do almost the same on a very windy day.

However, wind supplies only around 10% of annual electricity consumption and solar 5% in Germany.

In order to raise the share of wind and sun from 15 % to 30 %, capacities must be doubled. Which means that both wind and sun can each supply all the electricity demand on a sunny/windy day and all other forms of production must be shut off and restarted on a short notice.

Shutting turbines down on a windy day or disconnecting solar panels on a sunny day is of course a solution….except their owners are guaranteed a subsidy for 20 years.

Anyway, the point is that without cheap storage there is no way that wind and solar can replace fossil fuels. Global industrial scale pumped-hydro storage is 104-127 GW (depending on source) which could just handle Germany with 50% of their electricity coming from solar and wind.

Comment on Open thread weekend by Gina

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> willard (@nevaudit) | June 30, 2013 at 3:35 am |

> I mentioned a tax on fuel according to its carbon footprint. Your reflex was to connect this with skyrocketing prices. This is wrong for at least two reasons: (1) it rests on a non sequitur, insofar as such a tax might not increase prices, e.g. it could be a revenue-neutral tax;
> THIS is the Monktonian claptrap that is being debunked over and over again.

Revenue-neutral not not, the tax will necessarily drive us to more expensive sources of energy, which will necessarily drive up all prices.

So it’s not a non-sequitur, it’s not claptrap, and hasn’t been debunked. The only claptrap is the claim of a debunking.

Comment on An energy model for the future, from the 12th century by Peter Lang

Comment on Open thread weekend by Beth Cooper

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Serfs are marginal people easily pushed over the edge by
increased costs of subsidized energy, willard me auditor friend.
Fer some 40,000 years before the Industrial revel -u -shun
we serfs lived never far from the slough of des -pond -ency,
ever relyin’ on variable whether, weather a good – harvest –
this – year – or – a – famine – the -next?

Now subsidiin’ inefficient, intermittant, renewable energy, bene -
fitten’ cosy coteries of guvuh – mint and a fer cronies,is pushin’
us serfs right back ter that slough … aaaagghhglug …

B – t_
s.


Comment on Open thread weekend by Beth Cooper

Comment on Open thread weekend by willard (@nevaudit)

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> Revenue-neutral not not, the tax will necessarily drive us to more expensive sources of energy, which will necessarily drive up all prices.

Fuel is already taxed up to 50% in the UK, some of which gets returned to the fuel producers in form of subsidies, which in turn gets into the pocket of those who can buy this energy, whom are not quite poor. The poor is a pawn for whom we say we collect taxes, and to whom we say we never have any money.

You’re being played, blokes.

Comment on How should we interpret an ensemble of models? Part II: Climate models by Alexander Biggs

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“In the meantime, take the multi-model ensemble mean with a grain of salt.”

This is the best advice: from Judith.

The early work of the IPCC suggests it was confusing its scientific principles with its democratic. Like having about 20 models when one properly validated one would do.

Comment on An energy model for the future, from the 12th century by Peter Lang

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Yesterday, Australia’s wind farms stopped generating when most needed. this is a common occurrence. Yesterday, the total output of all the wind farms dropped from producing 35% to 5% of their nameplate capacity. By the time demand peaked, wind farm output was just 5% – i.e. next to useless. See the chart here: http://windfarmperformance.info/?date=2013-06-27

Some times the wind farms produce near no electricity for up to a week at a time. [The wind farms are spread over an area 1200 km by 800 km.]

Comment on Open thread weekend by tempterrain

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Well done chief. I must say you’re better informed than I am. And that’s not a sentence you’ll hear from me too often. ;-) All I know without looking up the information, is that our bills are higher than they were and my wife tells me that we need to be more careful and not leave lights on etc.

So its good that people are starting to take an interest in electricity prices.
I’m not advocating that they should be much higher but they could be slightly higher and dependent of course on the amount of Co2 released in making of it. Also enough to encourage architects to be more thermally aware at the design stage. There are far too many industrial buildings in Australia which are little more than tin sheds and require huge air conditioners in the summer months to maintain a workable inside temperature. Modern houses are nearly as badly designed and the assumption is that any problem can be fixed with an air conditioner.

Of course this is what happens, according to the principles of the free market, when energy is too cheap.

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