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Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II by Bart R

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David Appell | July 28, 2013 at 12:52 am |

Superior science has never failed to carry the day, ever.

History does not hold up your claim well to scrutiny.

Plato’s incorrect assertions held sway over half the world for more than a millennium, while opposing voices were often crushed, ignored, or.. okay, I’ll admit, I’m familiar with the stifling of others by a consensus in the wrong.. just as much as I’m unfamiliar with that working on me.

Maybe David has a reading thing, that he thinks I feel bullied or put down, when I say the opposite?

Perhaps, he ought read harder?


Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II by Steven Mosher

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Gary, you asked a question and I failed to answer it. Sorry, let me fix that

“The problem with getting your fellow consensusites to follow your advice, is their disdain for the “customer.”

Which do you think most accurately describes the attitude of the consensus leaders toward their audience (or at least who their audience should be – the voters):

A) The voters are too dumb to understand the science anyway.
B) They (the consensus) are so much more intelligent, better educated and better informed, that the public should just do as their told, say thank you, and then shut up.
C) The truth as they know it to be is so obvious that anyone who does not agree with them is either stupid, dishonest, or mentally unbalanced.
D) All of the above.”

I can only speak for myself and I can say that I have had those feelings and thoughts, so answer D.

Lets start:

A) my customer is too dumb.
when I think you are too dumb I will just give you a pile of references and say ” read the damn manual moron” you see a lot of people do that. Ive done it. This really doesnt work too well.

B. Hmm, I have experience doing B, . mostly the “shut up” tactic. I will say that the more work I did in the field the more intolerant I became of Keyboard Jockeys.. So, if I tell you to shut up its not because I think Im smarter or better educated. Its cause I did the work. So, over the years I have become much more sympathic toward people who tell keyboard jockeys to shut up and do their own damn science. That said, “shut up” doesnt work. they own keyboards.

C. I try to avoid the mentally imbalanced attacks. the wholesale diagnosing your opponents with mental illness is perhaps the most offensive move I have seen folks on my side perform. Lets say my experience with loved ones , friends and the random vet who sleeps on the sidewalk outside my building makes these kind of wholesale attacks especially offensive to me. Still, I bet that I’ve stooped to that tactic on more than one occasion on an individual basis. The internet made me do it.

Im almost of the opinion that any mass marketing of climate science is damn near impossible. Maybe we should go door to door like the witnesses or do missions like LDS.

Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II by David Appell

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Bart R wrote:
Plato’s incorrect assertions held sway over half the world for more than a millennium, while opposing voices were often crushed, ignored…

Wake up call: You aren’t Galileo, or Copernicus, and the more time you waste pretending that you are is the less time you spend proving that your science is superior.

Stop talking, stop whining, stop blogging, stop commenting — just do better science. GThat’s all it takes. You will win the day. Guaranteed.

So far, you have not.

Comment on Open thread weekend by Jim D

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280 ppm is the mean ice core value for the last millennium, but it started rising about the time man added CO2. There might be someone who doesn’t believe the natural level is near 280 ppm, but I haven’t heard anyone suggest that yet. It’s fine to go ahead and don’t take my word until you check the evidence for yourself. You will find even “skeptical” blogs have accepted this much, which gives you a chance to break new ground in “skepticism”.

Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II by willard (@nevaudit)

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> Im almost of the opinion that any mass marketing of climate science is damn near impossible.

Here’s something Black Hat marketers might appreciate:

Loss-leader are products offered at a loss, in order to lead people to purchase more profitable products. It’s a fascinating aspect of marketing. We’ll talk about the very first loss-leaders ever used in marketing, and how that learning led to loss-leaders in the printing industry, the book industry, the movie industry and the world of video games. We’ll even explain how Corvette Stingrays lead you to buy other vehicles from Chevrolet.

http://www.cbc.ca/undertheinfluence/season-2/2013/04/20/loss-leaders-how-companies-profit-by-losing-money-1/index.html

A very good podcast.

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No, I’m not suggesting any climate loss leader in particular.

Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II by kim

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Don’t look now, David, but you sound like you are sucking on your thumb.
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Comment on Open thread weekend by Bart R

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sunshinehours1 | July 27, 2013 at 8:31 pm |

Yeah, yeah. 30 days. For the same date.

You cherry picked near dates, and went with percentage rather than absolute.

But sure, 2nd to the remarkable 2007 drop is fine, too.

And thanks for confirming the surge of Antarctic continental ice sloughed off the shoulders of the continent to spill onto the sea in ever increasing and ever-thinning extent to melt away in the southern oceans.

Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’ by Peter Lang

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Faustino,

My mistake. I was mixing Gary Johns and Alan Moran. I’ve been writing something and referencing all three of them.


Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II by Steven Mosher

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GaryM

Its a korean phenomena, but rooted in japense Kawaai

The Ajusshi doesnt have the same experience as the younger fan. Its more nostalgia and hope ( think daughter in law).. advuncular for some. That’s part of the genius of it. But in the west, it has to be interpreted according to western categories. There “uncle” is a good thing. Here, well we have the “funny” uncle.

Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II by willard (@nevaudit)

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> you have no idea why I hope that was not your point.

No, I don’t, and I think this is a general phenomenon:

[I]t’s “very tough to have a successful dialogue results when everyone feels safe enough to “add their meaning to the shared pool” of meaning”

http://www.peace.ca/crucialconversations.pdf

Our feisty ways to waiting for Godot might explain why Mr. Pile just fails to understand Tom Curtis’ demonstration (I might be biased, since mine is quite similar), and I don’t think it relates to his ignorance of conversational implicatures.

Day after day, the crucial conversation we’re supposed to have fails, and fails, and fails. Over, and over, and over again. Not sure this can’t be resolved the Kahan way, since there are ways to profit from failures to communicate. Not unlike ambiguity.

Convergence implies termination and confluence. I see no reason why our crucial conversation should be modelled with a formal dialogue that has these properties.

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TL;DR — GaryM for the win.

Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II by willard (@nevaudit)

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I messed up my quote: <blockquote> A successful dialogue results when everyone feels safe enough to “add their meaning to the shared pool” of meaning” </blockquote> Do <em>you</em> feel safe? Now, kim, please tell us how that thing on your forehead makes you feel.

Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II by GaryM

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I’m not sure the concept of loss leaders translates to “selling” climate science.

Since the goal of the consensus is decarbonization, what would a loss leader look like? A less drastic increase in the price of energy?

British Columbia just tried that. An energy tax that was supposed to increase incrementally with time so the people would buy into the process. They recently decided on a five year freeze. Their loss leader…lost.

Carbon emissions trading has been tried. And has failed miserably, repeatedly.

“Investment” in “green” energy has been tried – to disastrous effect in England, most of Europe, Australia, and to a lesser though still damaging effect, in the U.S.

Loss leaders have been tried as sales tools for CAGW. They have backfired every time.

No, the obscurantist strain of the CAGW movement has the right idea. Don’t let the public know what you are selling them, until it’s too late.

Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II by Steven Mosher

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err. cook et al is crap for failing to adhere to some very basic principles of norming the raters. Also, failing to provide data to critics that would allow people to acertain whether there was a regression to the mean over time for raters who rated huge numbers of abstracts relative to others.

The set up of the experiment was elegant and well thought out.

The execution sucked ass.

The reproduceability of the results is non existent.

When you set out to prove the obvious ( the vast vast majority of climate science recogizes that man causes climate change ) falling down on the basics is down right stupid.

Consider this a lost opportunity. Cook was given the option of spending more time getting the work done. Evidence is he cared more about the marketing.
That looses on two accounts.

As a card carrying published member of the consensus I object to morons like Cook carrying our flag into battle.

Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II by Chief Hydrologist

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‘Global mean temperature decreased prior to World War I, increased during the 1920s and 1930s, decreased from the 1940s to 1976/77, and
as noted above increased from that point to the end of the century. Insofar as the global mean temperature is controlled by the net top-of-the-atmosphere radiative budget [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007], such breaks in temperature trends imply discontinuities in that budget. Such discontinuities are difficult to reconcile with the
presumed smooth evolution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol radiative forcing with respect to time [Hansen et al., 2005]. This suggests that an internal reorganization of the climate system may underlie such shifts [Zhang et al., 2007]…

[4] This paper provides an update to an earlier work that showed a foreshadowing of such climate shifts in the time evolution of major Northern Hemispheric atmospheric and oceanic modes of variability [Tsonis et al., 2007]. In that paper, it was hypothesized that certain aspects of the climate system behave in a manner analogous to that of synchronized chaotic dynamical systems [Boccaletti et al., 2002]. Specifically, it was shown that when these modes of climate variability are synchronized, and the coupling between those modes simultaneously increases, the climate system becomes unstable and appears to be thrown into a new state. This chain of events is identical to that found in regime transitions in synchronized chaotic dynamical systems [Pecora et al., 1997]. This new state is marked by a break in the global mean temperature trend and in the character of ENSO variability. Synchronization followed by an increase in coupling coincided with all the major climate shifts of the 20th century, and was also shown to mark climate shifts in coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations. While in the
observations such breaks in temperature trend are clearly superimposed upon a century time-scale warming presumably due to anthropogenic forcing, those breaks result in significant departures from that warming over time periods spanning multiple decades.

[5] Using a new measure of coupling strength, this update shows that these climate modes have recently synchronized, with synchronization peaking in the year 2001/02. This synchronization has been followed by an increase in coupling. This suggests that the climate system may well have shifted again, with a consequent break in the global mean temperature trend from the post 1976/77 warming to a new period (indeterminate length) of roughly constant global mean temperature.’

ftp://starfish.mar.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/pub/ocean/CCS-WG_References/NewSinceReport/March15/Swanson%20and%20Tsonis%20Has%20the%20climate%20recently%20shifted%202008GL037022.pdf

Much better science – although perhaps discontinuities in the toa energy dynamic may have a bigger role in background warming.

Note the trend before and the shift at the1998/2001 climate shift.

http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/cloud_palleandlaken2013_zps3c92a9fc.png.html?sort=3&o=14

I look forward to your new paper Judith.

Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II by Steven Mosher

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Are u accusing them of stealing Romms tactics?


Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II by Steven Mosher

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“Can’t take the rough and tumble of real science? ”

damn you are exactly the kind of tough guy that climate science marketing needs. Tell those pussies Mann and Jones that asking for their data is not harassment. Kick the pussies off our team david. you can do it!

Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II by David Appell

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Tell those pussies Mann and Jones that asking for their data is not harassment.

Mann’s data has been available for years and years, and there are now several portals for paleoclimate data. Go ahead and do something with it.

Comment on World’s Energy Appetite Growing by Cees de Valk

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Jim D, China is already an aging society, like most, now or soon (except Africa/Middle East). To my knowledge, for that reason, no one is predicting continued growth of CO2 emissions of 46% every 30 years.

Comment on The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II by Tomcat

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> The reason skeptics hate the consensus being talked about is that it’s an effective strategy.

Yes, for deception. Which is exactly why alarmists love it.

Comment on World’s Energy Appetite Growing by Chief Hydrologist

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