‘I’ve been too long in the wind and too long in the rain – Taking any comfort that I can’
Dixie Chicks
So here’s ARGO to 2012 – latest available it seems.
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/d44a01fb-b994-47bf-879f-8992cf9a3b54_zps4dc095e3.jpg.html?sort=3&o=0
Of course with new software – the first question to ask is do you know what you are really doing or are you just pushing buttons? I am trying to calculate anomalies – taking so long.
It is still the case that energy inputs – according to available data – peaked around the turn of the century. Lyman and Johnson 2013 – show a decline in OHC between 2003 and 2005.
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/ProjectEarthshine-albedo_zps87fc3b7f.png.html?sort=3&o=48
‘Earthshine changes in albedo shown in blue, ISCCP-FD shown in black and CERES in red. A climatologically significant change before CERES followed by a long period of insignificant change.’
This can be seen in IR – a cooling of 0.7W/m2 between the 80′s and 90′s (AR4).
s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Loeb2011-Fig1.png.html?sort=3&o=109
And in cloud. A substantial increase in cloud radiative forcing to the late 90′s, the shift captured by Project Earthshine and many others in diverse ways and not much much change since.
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/cloud_palleandlaken2013_zps3c92a9fc.png.html?sort=3&o=71
The future involves a decrease in solar intensity in the 11 yer cycle – and longer it seems. It involves as well the intensification of the current cool mode of the Pacific Decadal Variation – cooler SST and increased cloud cover seems a reasonable expectation for a decade at least.
Is there really any conceptual difficulty in the idea that solar tsi is peaking – and that reflected SW and emitted IR hasn’t changed all that much in CERES?
Or indeed that the PDV persits for 20 to 40 years?
Unlike El Niño and La Niña, which may occur every 3 to 7 years and last from 6 to 18 months, the PDO can remain in the same phase for 20 to 30 years. The shift in the PDO can have significant implications for global climate, affecting Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activity, droughts and flooding around the Pacific basin, the productivity of marine ecosystems, and global land temperature patterns. #8220;This multi-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation ‘cool’ trend can intensify La Niña or diminish El Niño impacts around the Pacific basin,” said Bill Patzert, an oceanographer and climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. “The persistence of this large-scale pattern [in 2008] tells us there is much more than an isolated La Niña occurring in the Pacific Ocean.”
Natural, large-scale climate patterns like the PDO and El Niño-La Niña are superimposed on global warming caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and landscape changes like deforestation. According to Josh Willis, JPL oceanographer and climate scientist, “These natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming caused by human activities. Or they can have the opposite effect of accentuating it.” http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8703
Cooling – or at least non-warming over the next decade at least seems quite likely.
That Cheech and Chong don’t understand – or don’t want to understand – and merely indulge in almost data and theory free narrative – seems par for the warminista course.
