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Comment on Lennart Bengtsson speaks out by Bart R

May 7, 2014, 12:07 am
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Dr Norman Page | May 6, 2014 at 8:30 pm |

You misuse the word ‘tautological’; AGW is hardly redundant with GHE, or the other way around. You also misuse the word ‘trivial’. I don’t know what your hangup with t-words is, but you should get that looked at.

There are no natural cycles at 60 years. There are no natural cycles at 1000 years. They aren’t quasi-periodicities. They aren’t anything.

Period.

If there were, then you could demonstrate four, six, even ten cycles of these effects on a graph or reliable data, validated by other graphs of reliable data.

If there were, you could demonstrate physical mechanisms causing these periodic phenomena, validated by physical measurements and consistent with the laws of Physics.

If there were, then the 60 year phenomenon you claim would go back more than 130 years in the instrumental record; it does not. Not even close.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/best/mean:191/mean:193 at BEST (forgive the pun), you have the period from 1890 to 1980 that sorta-kinda looks a little like a 60-year period might be visible if you squint just right and ignore that the amplitude and duration of every phase is dissimilar in every way to every other phase.. and all the data before or after has no hint of ‘quasi-periodicity’ on 60 years.

If there were a global phenomenon of periodic nature, the periodic signature would emerge across the hemispheres of the globe; it does not. Not even close.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3nh/mean:191/mean:193/plot/hadcrut3sh/mean:191/mean:193

Cherry-picking out a single sentence from the IPCC and then pretending to translate it for those of us who aren’t terribly bright is transparently, patronizingly, insulting.

We have enough information from the ice cores for 800,000 years, from astronomical observations of the tilt of the Earth, from detailed calculations of the effects of the tilt on global temperatures on 100,000-year timescales, to be able to dismiss the rest of your fabricated objections.

You’re simply saying nothing true, holding fast to century-old speculations by earlier commentators that were based on less than one millionth of the amount of data we now have.

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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Pierre-Normand

May 7, 2014, 12:08 am
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First, it’s not true that only the oceans are now being warmed since the slowdown in the rate of global surface temperature increase (which people call a “pause”) very much is a sea surface temperature phenomenon. There is much less of a slowdown over land.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/crutem4vgl/from:1955/mean:24/plot/crutem4vgl/from:1995/trend/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1955/mean:24/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1995/trend

Secondly, the main mechanism that explains the increase in the rate of heat intake by oceans simply is La Nina. Upwelling cold water in the tropical Pacific results in an immediate increase of the top of atmosphere imbalance. Cold water simply radiates less heat to space and hence retains more of the incoming heat from the Sun, while it also lowers the global surface temperature *average* mainly through lowering the average surface sea temperature.

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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Pierre-Normand

May 7, 2014, 12:13 am
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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Fernando Leanme

May 7, 2014, 12:22 am
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The current absence of surface warming has now lasted over a decade…maybe the phenomenom is broad scale and much longer lasting than La Niña? I never read references to La Niña lasting over 10 years.

I wonder, does the increase in ocean heat content, as reported by buoys in the last decade, match the excess forcing estimated by climate models? What do the satellite outgoing long wave radiation measurements show over that period of time? Are they decreasing?

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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Wednesday | WOODTV.com Blogs

May 7, 2014, 12:33 am
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[…] IPCC have obviously overemphasized the effect of CO2 on global temperature:     Here’s comments on the assessment from Dr. Judith Curry, Head of Climate Science at Georgia Tech.  and from Dr. Patrick Michaels, past President of the […]

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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Pierre-Normand

May 7, 2014, 12:43 am
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Fernando Leanme,

“The current absence of surface warming has now lasted over a decade…maybe the phenomenom is broad scale and much longer lasting than La Niña? I never read references to La Niña lasting over 10 years.”

If some impossibly resilient La Niña would last over 10 or 15 years then it would have no effect at all on the underlying trend over that whole period. What cause a temporary lowering of the trend during the “pause” mainly is the occurrence of more El Niño events during the first half of the period and more La Niña events at the end of the period.

“I wonder, does the increase in ocean heat content, as reported by buoys in the last decade, match the excess forcing estimated by climate models?”

It would seem so, according to the method, if not the results, of R. Pielke Sr, J. Christy and R. McNider:

http://judithcurry.com/2014/04/28/an-alternative-metric-to-assess-global-warming/#comment-542031

“What do the satellite outgoing long wave radiation measurements show over that period of time? Are they decreasing?”

Good question. I don’t know. But the energy that causes the sea levels to rise and the ice-sheets and sea ice to melt must come from somewhere. Reduced OLR and/or decreasing albedo (clouds, snow and ice) are the only two candidates.

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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Mike Flynn

May 7, 2014, 12:53 am
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WebHubTelescope,

Generalissimo Skippy has the right idea about your supposed climate science – funny.

That is, funny peculiar as opposed to funny ha-ha.

Live well and prosper,

Mike Flynn.

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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Mike Flynn

May 7, 2014, 1:25 am
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Pierre-Normand

You wrote -

““What do the satellite outgoing long wave radiation measurements show over that period of time? Are they decreasing?”

Good question. I don’t know. But the energy that causes the sea levels to rise and the ice-sheets and sea ice to melt must come from somewhere. Reduced OLR and/or decreasing albedo (clouds, snow and ice) are the only two candidates.”

Your statement that you don’t know implies to me that you don’t know – unless in Warmese it really means that you do know, but you don’t want anybody to know that you know, so you are only pretending you don’t know.

I just assume that you mean what you say.

Now if you don’t know, proceeding to say there are only two options seems bizarre, logically. Your assumption that sea level rise can only be due to warming, and your implication that all ice around the world melts at the same time would seem to be open to question.

You make a couple of assumptions which range from absurd to true but misleading. I will deal with the absurd – the other is true but misleading. You say reduced OLR – whatever that is – will cause energy to be accumulated in the system, if I understand you correctly. Unfortunately, your physics is in error. Energy of all wavelengths leaving the Earth is at most very slightly impeded by the insulating effect of the atmosphere, and the large amount of crud held aloft by Brownian motion, including clouds. It may take an extra 5 milliseconds or so, overall, to reach outer space, if that.

In any case, a slight reduction in the rate of cooling is not warming. It is cooling. Standing in the middle of an arid tropical desert as the sun sets, will rapidly apprise you of the fact that cooling is not the same as warming. I point out that the tropopause is actually much higher in the tropics than the polar regions, so that the radiation has further to travel before leaving the atmosphere. The surface temperature still drops.

I can think of a reason or two for ice melting here and there, and for sea levels to vary, and they have nothing to do with the non existent greenhouse effect.

I salute you for admitting you don’t know. Why not leave it at that?

Live well and prosper,

Mike Flynn.

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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Pierre-Normand

May 8, 2014, 1:09 am
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“There have indeed been lags between the surge in water and rise in temperatures, but NOT before a large El Nino like 1998.”

That’s an interesting observation. Note that it could be argues either way: (1) that the anomalous delay in the release of heat from the charging oscillator will make the discharge all the more powerful or (2) that it will likely fizzle out. Whether (1) or (2) is more likely to occur depends on what other escape route there is for this accumulated heat and how the westerlies will behave. I don’t know enough about that so I am agnostic. Rob Painting’s conclusion also seems quite measured.

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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Pierre-Normand

May 8, 2014, 1:12 am
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Oops: “and how the westerlies(sic) will behave.” the easterlies of course.

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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Bob Tisdale

May 8, 2014, 1:16 am
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R. Gates: “This is not the worst of Tisdale’s errors. While I’m sure he is well aware of the long-term gain in energy the IPWP has been undergoing (during both El Niño and La Niña dominant periods) he seems to conveniently ignore this extremely important fact.”

Thank you, once again, for misrepresenting my work, R. Gates. I began commenting on the heat gain in the tropical Pacific as soon as the NODC OHC data became available through the KNMI Climate Explorer at my request back in 2009. I have presented it and discussed it numerous times since then. Perform a Google image search of “tropical Pacific ocean heat content”, R. Gates. Whose graphs do you see there?

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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Spartacusisfree

May 8, 2014, 1:20 am
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We all have our cross to bear……..

Mine is dealing with the fake fizzicks used by the Climate Alchemists to create the imaginary ‘back radiation’, the imaginary ‘positive feedback’ and the imaginary 33 K GHE when it’s really a third this…..

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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Bob Tisdale

May 8, 2014, 1:20 am
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Pierre-Normand says: “Actually Tisdale never showed this allegedly much higher correlation as far as I know.”

If you don’t know, and obviously you don’t, then there is no reason for you to comment. I suggest you study my work before you make claims about what I have or have not presented and discussed.

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Comment on Machiavelli and Fortuna’s whim by คอนแทคเลนส์

May 8, 2014, 1:23 am
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This blog was… how do you say it? Relevant!! Finally I’ve found something which helped me.
Appreciate it!

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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Pierre-Normand

May 8, 2014, 1:27 am
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Another possibility that just occurred to me is that the displayed divergence isn’t real — or nearly as big as it seems — but mostly a statistical artifact caused by the 5-month running mean. Those smoothings often cause funny things to occur at the end of graphs since noise tends to me magnified there for lack of adjacent averaging data points.

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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by angech

May 8, 2014, 1:28 am
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Which comes first, the La Nina or the cooling?
The El Nino or the warming?
The answer is that these patterns do not cause the temperature rises and drops, they are part of the rises and drops.
Could everyone stop ascribing causation to weather patterns and try association instead?
The earth is, sigh, heated by the sun. Like a roast on a spit. Round it goes and the skin crackles and pops. Occasionally as it comes round a residue bubble in the skin will pop. Some layers have bone underneath, others deeper fat, think land and water. The temperature will not be quite the same each time. Occasionally one area will overheat for a few rotations.
Because of Coriolis forces and ensuing currents conditions are slightly different each time round.The earth over millenia varies slightly on the spit. The skin moves round, the heat source is turned up or down minutely a 0.1 of a degree.
Patterns of heating repeat in cycles [PDO] and overall The La Nina’s and El Nino’s even out. Any attempt to predict past ENSO conditions on tree rings currently is unfortunately reading entrails, pure guesswork.

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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Pierre-Normand

May 8, 2014, 1:35 am
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“If you don’t know, and obviously you don’t, then there is no reason for you to comment. I suggest you study my work before you make claims about what I have or have not presented and discussed.”

I didn’t read your book but read a couple dozens of your WUWT posts, read many of the comments and most of your responses, and asked a few questions myself. Maybe you somewhere addressed the points I here raised regarding the correlation of CO2 forcing with the underlying signal versus its correlation with the short term noise in the detrended temperature series; but I missed it. So, if you would provide a link that would be appreciated.

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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Leading Climate Scientist Defects: No Longer Believes in the 'Consensus'| Riverside Daily Digest

May 8, 2014, 1:43 am
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[…] climate alarmists to show a sense of proportion and admit the limits of their knowledge. Of the National Climate Assessment report, she […]

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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Bob Tisdale

May 8, 2014, 1:52 am
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Thanks, Judith and Donald Rapp, for bringing this discussion here to Climate, etc.

An important topic overlooked in the post is the source of warm water for an El Niño. Trenberth, who is mentioned in the post, has commented on it a number of times. It was mentioned in Trenberth et al. (2002):
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/2000JD000298.pdf

There, they write:
“The negative feedback between SST and surface fluxes can be interpreted as showing the importance of the discharge of heat during El Niño events and of the recharge of heat during La Niña events. Relatively clear skies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific allow solar radiation to enter the ocean, apparently offsetting the below normal SSTs, but the heat is carried away by Ekman drift, ocean currents, and adjustments through ocean Rossby and Kelvin waves, and the heat is stored in the western Pacific tropics. This is not simply a rearrangement of the ocean heat, but also a restoration of heat in the ocean.”

And there’s Trenberth and Fasullo (2011):
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/trenbert/trenberth.papers/ISSI_fulltext.pdf

They write:
“Typically prior to an El Niño, in La Niña conditions, the cold sea waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific create high atmospheric pressure and clear skies, with plentiful sunshine heating the ocean waters. The ocean currents redistribute the ocean heat which builds up in the tropical western Pacific Warm Pool until an El Niño provides relief (Trenberth et al. 2002).”

Thus my repeated characterization of ENSO as a chaotic, sunlight-fueled, coupled ocean-atmosphere, recharge-discharge oscillator, with El Niño acting as the discharge mode and La Niña acting as the recharge and redistribution modes.

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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Stephen Wilde

May 8, 2014, 1:58 am
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Changes in the balance between La Ninas and El Ninos appear to be a result of solar induced changes in global cloudiness which affects the amount of solar energy able to enter the oceans.

http://www.newclimatemodel.com/new-climate-model/

“The New Climate Model (NCM)

1) Solar activity increases, reducing ozone amounts above the tropopause especially above the poles.

2) The stratosphere cools. The number of chemical reactions in the upper atmosphere increases due to the increased solar effects with faster destruction of ozone.

3) The tropopause rises, especially above the poles altering the equator to pole height gradient.

4) The polar high pressure cells shrink and weaken accompanied by increasingly positive Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations.

5) The air circulation systems in both hemispheres move poleward and the ITCZ moves further north of the equator as the speed of the hydrological cycle increases due to the cooler stratosphere increasing the temperature differential between stratosphere and surface.

6) The main cloud bands move more poleward to regions where solar insolation is less intense and total global albedo declines via a reduction in global cloud cover due to shorter lines of air mass mixing.

7) More solar energy reaches the surface and in particular the oceans as the subtropical high pressure cells expand.

8) Less rain falls on ocean surfaces allowing them to warm more.

9) Solar energy input to the oceans increases but not all is returned to the air. A portion enters the thermohaline circulation to embark on a journey of 1000 to 1500 years. A pulse of slightly warmer water has entered the ocean circulation.

10) The strength of warming El Nino events increases relative to cooling La Nina events and the atmosphere warms.

11) Solar activity passes its peak and starts to decline.

12) Ozone levels start to recover. The stratosphere warms.

13) The tropopause falls, especially above the poles altering the equator to pole height gradient.

14) The polar high pressure cells expand and intensify producing increasingly negative Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations.

15) The air circulation systems in both hemispheres move back equatorward and the ITCZ moves nearer the equator as the speed of the hydrological cycle decreases due to the warming stratosphere reducing the temperature differential between stratosphere and surface.

16) The main cloud bands move more equatorward to regions where insolation is more intense and total global albedo increases once more due to longer lines of air mass mixing.

17) Less solar energy reaches the surface and in particular the oceans as the subtropical high pressure cells contract.

18) More rain falls on ocean surfaces further cooling them.

19) Solar energy input to the oceans decreases

20) The strength of warming El Nino events decreases relative to cooling La Nina events and the atmosphere cools.

21) It should be borne in mind that internal ocean oscillations substantially modulate the solar induced effects by inducing a similar atmospheric response but from the bottom up (and primarily from the equator) sometimes offsetting and sometimes compounding the top down (and primarily from the poles) solar effects but over multi-decadal periods of time the solar influence becomes clear enough in the historical records. The entire history of climate change is simply a record of the constant interplay between the top down solar and bottom up oceanic influences with any contribution from our emissions being indistinguishable from zero.

We saw the climate zones shift latitudinally as much as 1000 miles in certain regions between the Mediaeval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. It would surprise me if our emissions have shifted them by as much as a mile.”

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