Thumbs up for Bob Tisdale who has brought a lot of light into this occulted chapter of climate science over the past couple of years.
Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Bernd Palmer
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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by beththeserf
Faustino @ 2.02 am .
YES.
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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Bob Tisdale
GaryM says: “I have asked warmists, skeptics and lukewarmers what the mechanism is by which El Ninos add to global warming/global heat content. The folks at Real Climate and Dr. Curry said the heat released in an El Nino causes more clouds which then retain additional heat from solar radiation.”
There are numerous mechanisms. See Trenberth et al. (2002):
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/2000JD000298.pdf
And Wang (2005):
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/docs/Wang_Hadley_Camera.pdf
And Trenberth and Fasullo (2011):
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/trenbert/trenberth.papers/ISSI_fulltext.pdf
GaryM says: “Bob Tisdale at WUWT pointed me to another article of his when I asked, but that article also assumed the effect on global heat content of an El Nino, without explaining the mechanism.”
Please rephrase your question and I’ll be happy to provide links to past posts that explain the mechanism(s).
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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Generalissimo Skippy
No particular problem – but the decadal and longer changes in frequency and intensity need an external agent.
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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Leading Climate Scientist Defects: No Longer Believes in the 'Consensus'| Orange County Daily Digest
[…] climate alarmists to show a sense of proportion and admit the limits of their knowledge. Of the National Climate Assessment report, she […]
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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Pierre-Normand
Bob Tisdale wrote: “An important topic overlooked in the post is the source of warm water for an El Niño. Trenberth, who is mentioned in the post, has commented on it a number of times.”
Thanks for those links. I quite agree with your characterization of ENSO. This provides more material for study.
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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Bob Tisdale
R. Gates says: “El Niño raises the GAT or sensible heat of the troposphere TEMPORARILY as that energy passes from the ocean through the troposphere on the way to space and to other parts of the climate system. Certainly 100% does not go out into space. But there is certainly no net gain to the climate system, and most likely a net loss.”
R. Gates conveniently overlooks the fact that much of the warming of surface temperatures and ocean heat content outside of the tropical Pacific during an El Niño occurs without an exchange of heat from the tropical Pacific. R. Gates conveniently overlooks that, after an El Niño, the leftover warm water from an El Niño is redistributed from the tropical Pacific. These were topics you repeatedly failed to recognize, even though they were blatantly obvious in the data, when you used to comment at WUWT.
Adios!
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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Pastor Mikes Report | Leading Climate Scientist Defects: No Longer Believes in the ‘Consensus’
[…] climate alarmists to show a sense of proportion and admit the limits of their knowledge. Of the National Climate Assessment report, she […]
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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Pierre-Normand
Yes, which is why I mentioned: “Though latent energy release must be accounted for in the less steep moist adiabatic lapse rate…” and then qualified “…as long as it is dry.” But the issue was the lack of an effect of the back radiation on the convective lapse rate (either moist or dry).
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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Clima e politica 2.0 | Climatemonitor
[…] voglia di leggere molto più degli highlights. Lascerò quindi che a descrivervi la situazione sia Judith Curry, che comincia così (neretto […]
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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Brian G Valentine
Liberal Democrats have a marvelously simple view of everything
- Every behavioral observable can be traced to racism
- Every physical observable can be traced to global warming
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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Faustino
Thanks for that, a different perspective which (confirmation bias at play) reinforces my reaction of caution towards CAGW claims and costly GHG-emissions reduction policies.
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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Pierre-Normand
Mike Flynn, you asked: “Now having accepted that a gas will rise in temperature when it absorbs energy, what happens when the gas is above the temperature of the gas with which it is intimately mixed?”
And the response is that convection may occur. Whether or not it will occur depends on the actual vertical temperature gradient and how this gradient compares to the lapse rate. This is the condition of convective stability. As usual you ask questions and complain when I answer or provide any explanation (and you complain even more when I don’t answer within three hours). It just seems like you have a phobia of learning anything.
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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Generalissimo Skippy
Reposted – unfortunately it doesn’t rhyme but it was pre stadium wave.
Song of a Climate Zombie
Am I some poor merchant of doubt selling shopworn and
threadbare wares on the ebays of the ideas marketplace?
Let me take stock then in a dismal reiteration of my poor
argument that is my faint hope to delude and dismay you.
Unless we can count on some mad and unprovable theory,
then the unholy carbon ghost must grasp the photon closely
in warming arms for a period of no less than 80 years or so.
Or until judgement day – whichever comes before the cart.
My stock in trade must then be: the power of ENSO twins,
abrupt shifts in the PDO, the fickleness of the PNA, the
slow pendulum of the AMO and the SAM with its storms
freewheeling off the Southern Ocean to smash on the shore.
These standard bearers of doubt engage in a global dance.
Occasionally, they pirouette towards a grand crescendo and,
then fly wildly to the ends of Earth in a new choreography,
Tremendous energies cascading though powerful systems.
Unless I miss my mark then this is the mark of chaos and
a danger in its own right as climate system components
jostle unpredictably and things settle into whatever pattern
emerges – mayhaps a cold, cold, cold day on planet Earth.
So, you are 90% sure we caused warming over 50 years?
But the only global warming was between 1977 and 1998.
By more than chance, it was the last period when the boy
child, El Niño, reigned over climate in the Pacific Ocean.
His influence can be seen in the record of Earth radiance.
A slow decline in reflected short wave as cloud dissipated
over the warm ocean and let in more of the Sun’s energy.
Ten times more powerful than a gaseous embrace of photons.
Before that time and since his sister, the girl child La Niña,
ruled the waves with winds and cold, cold water rising in the
eastern Pacific – with cool cloud spreading over cold seas –
she will rule for some decades yet before ceding power again.
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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by stefanthedenier
GaryM commented said: ” Bob Tisdale (I think), seem to believe that El Ninos increase global heat content by increasing clouds which decrease radiation of heat from the atmosphere”
Gary, El Nino does on different places different things – but, overall global temp stays the same. Believing that water vapor / clouds increase the overall temp is wrong, best example: http://globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com/water-vapor-h2o/
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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Pierre-Normand
Mike Flynn, by the way, the place where I first learned about convective equilibrium in the atmosphere is in Feynman’s Lectures on Physics some 15-20 years ago. I now see it’s available online. The relevant section is 9-4 but the whole lecture if very enjoyable and instructive. It’s also entirely descriptive, and doesn’t contain a single mathematical equation.
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Comment on El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming by Generalissimo Skippy
Performing a correlation analysis between SST and ISCCP/MODIS total cloud amount we find that overall there is a negative correspondence between cloud at middle latitudes and a positive correspondence at low latitudes. In particular, a strong positive correlation between SST and total cloud is identified over the Equatorial Pacific region (6ºN–6ºS) of r = 0.74 and 0.60 for ISCCP and MODIS, respectively, which is found to be highly statistically significant (p =4.5×10-6 and 0.03). Other regions over the globe present localized significant positive and negative correlations [8], but this is the more extended region with consistent positive correlations. A time-series of these data is presented in Figure 4. A strong correspondence between SST and total cloud cover is expected over the Equatorial Pacific region as ocean temperatures provide a strong influence the day-to-day formation of convective clouds, but with small impact on the radiation balance. We also expect that at midlatitudes, the clouds in turn influence ocean temperatures as they provide a negative radiative forcing via their shortwave reflection. http://www.benlaken.com/documents/AIP_PL_13.pdf
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Palle_Laken2013_Fig4_zps68128d41.png.html
Pacific SST varies over years to millennia – as a function mostly of the strength of cold upwelling in the eastern Pacific.
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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Pierre-Normand
I forgot to supply the link:
http://www.feynmanlectures.caltech.edu/II_09.html#Ch9-S4
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Comment on U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by Mike Flynn
Pierre-Normand,
Yes. Feynman was a very bright lad.
You referred to a part of one of his lectures relating to thunderstorms. You may have overlooked Feynman’s words about what happens normally –
” Thus there is no reason for the hot air below to rise; if it were to rise, it would cool to a lower temperature than the air already there, would be heavier than the air there, and would just want to come down again. On a good, bright day with very little humidity there is a certain rate at which the temperature in the atmosphere falls, and this rate is, in general, lower than the “maximum stable gradient,” which is represented by curve (b). The air is in stable mechanical equilibrium.”
No mention of convective equilibrium, or whatever you happen to believe Feynman said, whether he did or not. I know you will say he meant something different, but I accept that if he meant to say convective equilibrium, he would have said it. As I have mentioned once or twice before, and Feynman happens to agree, warm air in general does not rise. That is why the atmospheric temperature falls with height. The warm air is below progressively colder air. If you choose not to believe this, well and good.
You may learn from the totality of Feynman’s lectures, or you may not. Either way, I will leave you to your fairy tale warming due to CO2 in the atmosphere. Good luck.
Live well and prosper,
Mike Flynn.
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