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Comment on Climate and Energy Policies: Two Sides of the Same Coin (?) by Peter Hartley

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Fred,

As I said in my first response to you, the main argument does not rely on the claim that climates will change anyway. Rather we want to limit the potential for harmful consequences of adverse climate events and contend better with disasters of all sorts after they occur. As a means to achieving that end, policies directly focused on those events are likely to be more efficient than a blunt, and likely ineffective (because developing countries will not go along with the program) tool to influence changes in the distributions of weather events.

If there is substantial uncertainty about the magnitude of the likely effects of CO2 on the distribution of weather events (as you suggest), that raises the risk of investing in CO2 control and makes such investments less desirable than the alternatives of directly handling the potential for harmful consequences of adverse climate events and contend better with disasters of all sorts after they occur.

If at least some of the consequences (weather or otherwise) of increased CO2 are beneficial, that also shifts the balance toward the policies I am advocating — accept the good and treat the bad.

If measures to cope with weather disasters are useful for things like earthquakes and terrorist attacks, that also shifts the balance toward such policies.


Comment on Human choice and climate change by Anteros

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It looks like you’re making progress..

BTW – is there any good fishing down in those cold parts? :)

Comment on Human choice and climate change by capt. dallas

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Sport fishing capital of the world! The dinner fishing is pretty good too. Though the climate is tough, had to close the windows last night :)

Comment on Human choice and climate change by Faustino

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No, well-spotted. Another academic speciality seeking to extend its domain? Too much of that happening already.

Comment on Climate and Energy Policies: Two Sides of the Same Coin (?) by cwon1

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” I think it would be worth exploring the views of economists over the entire spectrum of opinion.”

Fred, it might be worth a conversation but it isn’t likely to happen is it? The dogma of central planning economics is even more established than that of central planning climate science. If we are talking about “Two Heads of the Same Coin” we couldn’t pick a better example than AGW and Keynesian economic dogma. The purpose is an exact match in fact. State controls over markets and private property rights in both cases.

More pressing to the article and discussion is we are dealing with the usual Granfalloon(s) shared only between AGW advocates;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Granfalloon

“I(we) think CO2 is changing the climate ……..therefore…….fill in any presumed expansion of state authority”

This only has meaning among various types of similar political culture (The Granfalloon in question). It’s actually more important than CO2 beliefs.

Regarding human produced CO2 presumptions of importance to the Climate and relating it to fellow peers in a way that is objectively meaningless to the more rational. Carried to the extreme, which it often is, AGW presumption is an abusive form of political correctness.

More directly to your comment, it’s the cost of excess regulations and loss of individual rights that are far more costly to humanity at large. It’s a common bias that is found here but one you should reconsider. It’s no small irony that those who would claim greater sensitivity to Climate regulations and the needs of the “poor” are actually increasing the burdens of such groups and are counter productive to their stated ideals.

Climate dogma hasn’t just destroyed physical wealth, it’s lowered our most important resource which is to think rationally.

Comment on Human choice and climate change by Faustino

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“too sensible for words”? This seems to be another attempt to address the whole human endeavour through the prism of climate change, which is a tiny part of the whole.

I commented on an earlier post by Bill on his blog, “As for “more sustainable approaches,” everything changes, nothing can be indefinitely sustained, humans have made great progress through their inventiveness and adaptability in the face of ever-changing circumstances. This is our biggest resource, and it is one which is constantly growing rather than being depleted.” The suggestions for policy-makers listed above seem to ignore the fact that the vast gamut of human resourcefulness and invention lies far outside the ambit of policy-makers, who more often impede than encourage it. It seems to me that the authors are not “living in the real world,” but an academic abstraction from it. Policies which encourage freedom, entrepreneurialism and individual initiative would obviate the need for much government and academic intervention, in all spheres of activity.

Comment on Argument and authority in the climate fight by Chief Hydrologist

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Rob,

It is not bold at all – if you look at the science and trends in the elements I listed. In response we have a response short on detail and long I would think and more likely.

The currency is looking like an idiot – and you have a head start. I take it we have a bet?

Robert I Ellison
Chief Hydrologist

Comment on Human choice and climate change by Anteros

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Faustino -

Well put.

I think one of the suggestions very nearly makes the leap from academic abstraction to practical reality -

Prepare for the likelihood that social, economic, and technological change will be more rapid and have greater direct impacts on human populations than climate change.

All that needs to be changed is the beginning – instead of ‘prepare’ [which in this context means precisely nothing] they could have said either ‘get out of the way so that…….’ or ‘do nothing so that’

Something that your comment reminds me of is the fact that everyone seems to require a policy of doing something, where in fact the doing something is often the problem. Feeding corn oil to cars, anybody?

I suppose I’m not a big fan of imposing any kind of ideology on circumstances or pursuing 5 year plans or (especially) having a grand vision of ‘global sustainability’. That last idea seems to me to be directly contrary to everything human, sensible or realistic. It is the product of an ideological imagination and to attempt to impose that ideology on an unsuspecting reality. Completely nuts.


Comment on Climate and Energy Policies: Two Sides of the Same Coin (?) by manacker

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Peter Hartley and Anteros

There is no doubt that the increase in affluence, standard of living, quality of life and life expectancy, which the industrially developed world has experienced over the past 150-200 years has been to a large extent a result of the availability of a reliable and low cost energy source..

There is also no doubt that this is the path now being followed by China, India, many smaller Asian nations, Brazil etc.

Those that are fortunate enough to have their own resources of fossil fuels, are using these for this transformation; others are supplementing local resources with purchased ones.

The poorest nations of this world do not have a reliable energy infrastructure based on low-cost sources of energy. They might have the basic fuel resources, but they lack the capital investment for developing the infrastructure.

Each of these nations will have its own “energy policy”. For example, China’s economic growth objectives are based on the continued growth in energy demand. So the “energy policy” is basically in support of an economic growth policy, which in turn is based on gradually improving the quality of life of its population.

“Climate policy” is a more nebulous concept.

A few already affluent nations (in Europe, for example) have a stated goal to “reduce carbon emissions to X% of what they were in year Y by year Z”, or to “hold global warming to no more than 2 degC”, but this is not really a “climate policy”, but only empty political posturing.

Curiously, it is precisely these nations, which do not have a coherent “energy policy”, as witnessed, for example by the UK’s “chasing windmills” or Germany’s “nuclear phaseout”, neither of which addresses the future energy needs of its populace.

The IPCC would like to promote a “global climate policy” (to reduce CO2 emissions globally in order to avert a virtual computer-projected climate disaster), but the larger nations of this world are not buying in to the need or desirability of doing this, as was evidenced at Copenhagen, Cancun and Durban, so it will not become a reality.

Nor have there been any concrete actionable proposals to date, which would result in a perceptible impact on our planet’s climate – NONE.

And it has become increasingly evident that we humans are unable to change our planet’s climate, no matter how much money we throw at it.

So I’d say that a “climate policy” (on a national or regional basis) should be to be able to respond to any climate changes, which nature throws at us, in order to minimize any harm or maximize any potential benefit that these might cause.

And this has no connection with an “energy policy”.

Max.

Comment on Human choice and climate change by lolwot

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Also of course when any local attempt is made to reduce emissions the skeptics start wingeing about how useless it is because the little region will have little relative impact on global emissions.

Comment on Consensus or not (?) by Latimer Alder

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I have never understood what ‘doubles down’ actually means. Is it an expression common in the Colonies?

And surely it has been the consensusite’s proud boast for many years that the relevant figure is 97%.

If you know better, please feel free to point out where this number is inaccurate.

Comment on Consensus or not (?) by Don B

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In January 2006 30 BBC folks held an all day meeting with 30 climate activists (with the exception of Dr. Richard North) and at the end of the day – surprise! – came away knowing there was a consensus about AGW and its evil consequences.

Is Black now willing to convene another meeting?

Comment on Consensus or not (?) by geek49203

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Might I make the suggestion that a backwater field of academic research (ie, climate history) got hijacked when its findings provided a compelling story to obtain funding?

In this way, Mann-style AGW became like Keynesian economics — whatever truth there is to either is besides the point, as politicians, activists and money-seekers use them to get funding and power.

When that happened, science (or economics) be damned, since most who are using that rationale don’t understand what they’re talking about. And suddenly we have a bunch of nincompoops running around saying that “consensus” was indeed scientific fact. ‘Cause if you don’t understand the science, you probably won’t understand scientific processes either?

Comment on Consensus or not (?) by Latimer Alder

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Surely our gallant climatologits would never have been influenced by filthy lucre, power, prestige or position? Such venality is reserved for the Big Oil funded non-consensus Denier Scum.

/ sarc

Comment on Consensus or not (?) by ceteris non paribus

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Latimer:

Throwing petrol at the flames is fun!

Do you doubt the integrity of epidemiologists because some of their research data is not public? (Remember, epidemiologists determine how public money is spent, and their policies can have wide-ranging sociological and political consequences.)

Can you think of any scientific discipline other than climate science where so much of the relevant raw data is available free on-line?

Anyone with an internet connection, MS Excel, and some spare time, can reproduce the results that appear in many of the peer-reviewed pubs.

If you have some credible evidence that shows that climate scientists are wrong – I say Go for it – Bring it on!

Science has nothing to fear from skepticism.


Comment on Consensus or not (?) by Latimer Alder

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I bet also that if you stood at either pole you’d find no such force at all.

But what this mundane observation, known for hundreds of years, brings new to the climate debate baffles me.

Comment on Consensus or not (?) by geek49203

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“Science has nothing to fear from skepticism”

Then Latimer, why all of the fear when skeptics started asking questions? No, it wasn’t expressed as “fear”, but rather outrage that turned into nastiness at those who simply started asking questions. Ten years ago, climate history was at best a backwater branch of science, and most — even with math/science PhD’s — had never heard of it before. As we started asking pointed questions, and demanding data (that mysterious disappeared), and demanding computer code for “corrections” were were branded as worse-than-Nazi’s (or Nazi-lite, or something).

Comment on Consensus or not (?) by Paul Vaughan

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Doesn’t matter in the slightest if there’s a consensus. Could we please leave all of this terribly boring politics behind us? And focus on understanding nature for a second? People squandering away time is all that’s happening in these online climate discussion forums lately. Please folks: Let’s concentrate on understanding nature. Thank you for at least considering this simple suggestion. I’m eager to volunteer in the limited time I have. Nature is beautiful. Politics: ugly, boring.

Comment on Consensus or not (?) by geek49203

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Latimer — put down the gun. Relax. This is an academic discussion.

BTW, you suggest the data in this whole AGW / Consensus discussion was, is, available. Please recall that we are talking about the stuff 5-10 years ago, when “consensus” was the en vogue word. At that time, the raw data was NOT available, nor was the code for the correction programs. In fact some of that raw data was said to be missing — do you remember that? And as I recall some of the “leaked” emails, the entire matter of keeping both raw data and correcting code secret was a topic of conversation… remember?

So tell us again how, 10 years ago when the UN was jamming this stuff down our throats, and Kyoto was being proposed, how all of this data and code was freely available?

Comment on Consensus or not (?) by Jeff

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I heard someone comment once that religion would be well served if in seminary, there was as much emphasis placed on logic as there is on theology. It seems that this is also the case for science.

One poster above correctly identifies Black’s criticism of skeptics as a straw man. That however serves only as his springboard into still greater vista’s of poor thinking. These are rife in the selection of his work posted here. Taking one “But if the presence of a consensus is irrelevant, so, logically, is its absence; which makes the continued use by sceptics’ groups of the “consensus is cracking” meme a bit mystifying.” This is true. However, he fails to embrace the idea that the sum of his construct breaks both sides of the argument. He should perhaps realize that continuing to blather on about “why hasn’t yet cracked?” is rendered meaningless by his own argument. Once he wrote the sentence cited above sentence, he was done.

My point here is not to indict one side or the other, but rather both. Objective truth based on consensus (either in support of AGW or otherwise) is simply not logically possible. Consensus is a form of the “Appeal to Authority.” Such a proof can be “good” or “bad” but not “true” or “false” as is the case with the scientific model of prediction/observation & measurement. The community of Weather Science generally speaking, is attempting to apply a historical/legal form of proof to an objective, scientific argument.

The validity or lack thereof of specific components to the appeal to authority are therefore pointless to the desired end point which presumably equals, “If we all (or most of us) agree, then that’s the way it is.” That’s another form of fallacy literally called “missing the point.”

I have to say that having spent exactly one year as a teaching assistant in philosophy thirty years ago and working as an engineer for the intervening years, I’m very nearly shocked to see such a failing of logic from an otherwise learned community.

To sum, measuring consensus or lack thereof proves nothing and in fact does not offer the slightest thread of evidence in support of or in objection to objective reality. It does prove the presence or lack of consensus but that is all.

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