A false negative yields the greatest risk.
Although the consensus appears to harp on the Type I error, missing a really really important message in the cacophony of nature and in particular as it applies to public policy, the harm that comes to most of us is being oblivious to a certain danger.
We have been warned by the consensus that ours and our future generations will whither, wilt in the heat of our own making. Ah, we’re not really making heat, that’s the job of our sun. Only, we are causing, see how neatly I have inserted THAT word, the melting and precipitation pelting of mankind by spewing CO2 hither and yon.
Now, if I understand the rudimentary basics right, if we, and by we I mean through our duly elected officials, if we don’t put our economy into a tailspin by sacrificing the poor and huddled masses on the alter of climate disruption, then we who have the means to escape all the horrors, have caused our future born great calamity.
Now I wouldn’t really say that this is science, or statistics, or all the hoopla that passes for both, but I would say we need more Missourians in the peanut gallery, those who say: “show me.”
Glomping upon a consensus idea when all observations say “no way”; saying something is true when it is really false; saying that CO2 is the climate control knob, well, that’s kinda dumb.