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Comment on Open thread by jim2

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Here’s a concept that can be applied to climate science.
From the article:

Today it has become far too obvious that numbers no longer matter or state a true value. What a number is, or what it now represents, is no longer what we grew up learning as in 1+1=2. That’s now considered old math. Today numbers represent connotations with abstract meanings, or better yet – clouds in the sky. What you see is what they are.

Remember when “give me the facts” meant just that? Or, “the numbers don’t lie?” How old-fashioned that is. Today’s experts recite figures, and facts ad nausea, but those facts mean nothing because as we’ve all found out over the last few years: numbers now have more in common with what the definition of is – is. Rather than having an actual knowable understandable quality.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-07/clothing-naked-experts


Comment on World Bank on Understanding Climate Uncertainty by Pierre-Normand

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Mike Flynn wrote: “Not at all. I merely point out that a reduction n the cooling rate, or a reduction in the rate of heat loss does equate to warming, that is an increase in temperature.”

I’m pretty sure there is negation word missing here. You’ve consistently argued the exact opposite — that a reduction in the rate of heat loss can’t result in an increase in temperature. Of course, you’ve always been fallaciously trading on the ambiguity between *gross* (loss to space) and *net* (loss to space minus gain from the Sun) reduction in rates of heat loss.

“As an example, the Moon possesses little in the way of atmosphere. The Sun manages to warm the surface to temperatures in excess of anything experienced on Earth, quite in spite of the fact that there is close to zero reduction in the rate of cooling, unlike the Earth.”

The lunar rotation rate is 3.6% the rotation rate of the Earth. In other words, the average lunar day lasts about 336 hours rather than just 12 hours for the average terrestrial day. Same for the lunar night. This difference, together with the lack of atmospheric and oceanic horizontal heat transport, and the lower thermal inertia of the surface, mainly account for the larger diurnal temperature swings.

“In other words, we observe a reduction in the amount of energy from the Sun reaching the Earth’s surface per unit area, compared with the Moon.”

That’s yet something else. There is a difference in the Earth and lunar albedo, and in the amount of solar energy that directly reaches the surfaces owing to the lack of a lunar atmosphere, but your observation about diurnal temperature variations mainly is a consequence of the longer lunar period of rotation and the other effects I mentioned. It also does nothing to correct the flaws in your earlier arguments. It merely changes the subject.

Comment on The stadium wave by Cheerleading practice wear

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This website was… how do I say it? Relevant!! Finally I have found something which helped me.
Cheers!

Comment on Open thread by omanuel

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“What’s missing is a professional and objective science academia willing to stop towing the line of their political peers.”

The post-WWII system of research grants was designed to assure that scientific academia would tow the line of those distributing the funds.

World leaders had good reason* to believe in August 1945 that Earth’s atmosphere might be accidentally ignited by nuclear weapons.

Instead of being angry and seeking to punish them for corrupting science, we need to accept that their motives in 1945 were not totally selfish.

Reconciliation is in the best interest of everyone.

*See last paragraph of Aston’s Nobel Prize Lecture on 12 Dec 1922.

Comment on Open thread by CS

Comment on Open thread by Stephen Segrest

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Jim2 — not a very mature or responsible attitude.

Comment on Open thread by Robert I Ellison

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‘We have used both high vertical-resolution and conventional radiosonde data to investigate two aspects of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial lower stratosphere. Taguchi (2010) used monthly mean wind information from three radiosonde stations in the Western Pacific region to show that QBO periods are generally shorter during El Nino than during La Nina conditions and that QBO amplitudes are generally greater during La Nina conditions. We show that these results are valid for all longitudes in equatorial regions. We also show that QBO modulations of the cold-point-tropopause, on the average, are greater during La Nina conditions, although this result is variable for different stations at different latitudes and longitudes. We believe that this variability is likely due to local influences of convection significantly affecting the cold-point tropopause. Our strategy for investigating both of these aspects of ENSO influences on the QBO was to show that spline-fitting of conventional radiosonde observations gave similar results for both ENSO and QBO variations of winds and temperatures to those derived using high vertical-resolution radiosonde data over a nine year period (as suggested by the results of Bell and Geller, 2008), but that this was too short a period to properly separate ENSO from QBO effects. Given that these similar results were obtained using spline-fits to conventional radiosonde data to those obtained using high vertical-resolution radiosonde data, we then analyzed much longer time series of conventional radiosonde data for several stations, where such data were available over several decades.’

The QBO looks nothing like ENSO – yet modulating a harmonic solution to standing waves in an elliptical bathtub -
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Mathieuplots_zps3ec1411a.png.html?sort=3&o=7 – reproduces ENSO?

It is insane curve fitting to no sane purpose.

Comment on Open thread by Robert I Ellison

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‘We have used both high vertical-resolution and conventional radiosonde data to investigate two aspects of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial lower stratosphere. Taguchi (2010) used monthly mean wind information from three radiosonde stations in the Western Pacific region to show that QBO periods are generally shorter during El Nino than during La Nina conditions and that QBO amplitudes are generally greater during La Nina conditions. We show that these results are valid for all longitudes in equatorial regions. We also show that QBO modulations of the cold-point-tropopause, on the average, are greater during La Nina conditions, although this result is variable for different stations at different latitudes and longitudes. We believe that this variability is likely due to local influences of convection significantly affecting the cold-point tropopause. Our strategy for investigating both of these aspects of ENSO influences on the QBO was to show that spline-fitting of conventional radiosonde observations gave similar results for both ENSO and QBO variations of winds and temperatures to those derived using high vertical-resolution radiosonde data over a nine year period (as suggested by the results of Bell and Geller, 2008), but that this was too short a period to properly separate ENSO from QBO effects. Given that these similar results were obtained using spline-fits to conventional radiosonde data to those obtained using high vertical-resolution radiosonde data, we then analyzed much longer time series of conventional radiosonde data for several stations, where such data were available over several decades.’

The QBO looks nothing like ENSO – yet modulating a harmonic solution to standing waves in an elliptical bathtub -
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Mathieuplots_zps3ec1411a.png.html?sort=3&o=7 – reproduces ENSO?

It is insane curve fitting to no sane purpose.


Comment on Open thread by cwon14

Comment on The denizens of Climate Etc. by Fernando Leanme

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Started as an Ocean Engineer, hired and retrained as petroleum engineer by large oil company. As an undergraduate worked aboard a NOAA vessel, we were dropping XBTs and tracking currents using drogues, mostly to understand Gulf Stream eddies. Posting the data by hand made me memorize the 3D shape of the ocean in the areas we were surveying.

In the early 1980s I was trained in the use of 3d dynamic model simulators, used to model multiphase flows within oil and gas reservoirs. These grew in size and complexity over time, and by the 2000s the technology had evolved to use very large parallel processors. We also realized the upscaling to a reasonable size, and the plain lack of ability to describe the initial conditions led to large prediction errors. Having had almost 30 years to hindcast the early predictions I made taught me a lot about a model’s limits. I also had to develop models for the human responses to events we had to introduce in the larger 3D models of nature (I used I Think software).

In the 1990s I was leading a small project team studying whether to produce oil in the Arctic, and we had to interface with a group of ice and climate experts. The project lasted almost a decade, and we saw was the regional warming trend and the gradual ice loses. This was easy to spot in the USA military satellite data we had obtained, which had coverage from the 1960′s.

After I retired I started reading about this global warming controversy, and saw a lot of gaps and problems in the way the IPCC was doing its work. I also think climatologists have lost their place. The solutions have very little to do with climatology as such. If we decide the GHG effect warms the planet and this warrants some action then the people who contribute the most to making good decisions aren’t climatologists.

Comment on State of the blog discussion thread by Jim D

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Stephen, thanks for the words. I find this blog entertaining to post to precisely because it stimulates my thoughts that, in my opinion, are required to balance it out more.

Comment on State of the blog discussion thread by Herman A (Alex) Pope

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Maintaining such a site is certainly difficult. One essential point seems to be that the host concentrates more in keeping the discussion going than in declaring, what’s correct and what’s not. She or he can put limits and use moderation to prevent trolling, and to cut off argumentation with a fool, when that argumentation is not any more of value to others.

The science is not settled. The people who disagree are not the fools. The consensus people who call them fools are the real fools.

Comment on State of the blog discussion thread by angech

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Perhaps you could have a swear box where when we feel too upset by other commentators we can do a really boots and all post and have it put into a never to be read file which can be automatically emptied for all 3 month old posts.
The reasons a lot of climate scientists do not comment is obvious. The first is demonizing and isolating by their peers who would push the line that no comment and no dissent is allowed to prevent any break in the ranks. The second is the probable abuse that there comments would cop from whichever side was not happy with them. The third is the fear of being used as a poster boy for skepticism.
I find a thread of > 500 comments unwieldy but F3 helps find threads just type in the name.
I find communicating or criticizing 4 times a week lhelps let me vent my frustration with my view of the Climate world, similar to Fan and Web but opposite viewpoints.
Taking our different views in your stride makes for a much more vigorous and enjoyable blogging experience. Even the Chiefio must feel better after educating the rabble though like Sisyphus he is condemned to repeat it time after time with some of his frienemies.
On a sad note certain people have too much baggage invested to ever appear on these blogs.

Comment on Open thread by Pierre-Normand

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“As I understand it, the maximum emission wavelength of the Earth at 288K is around 10 microns – this represents the vast majority of the energy.”

The Earth radiates across a very broad range of wavelengths. Google “outgoing shortwave radiation” so see the whole IR spectrum from satellite measurements over the tropics. The large chunk taken out from the middle is caused by CO2, from about 600 to 750cm-1 (wavenumber).

“A physicist should take but a moment to calculate the percentage of the total instantaneous energy emitted by the Earth available for interaction by CO2.”

As satellite observation shows, this is a huge change. In the tropics, the outgoing radiation close to the CO2 bands (that are enlarged by pressure broadening) emit at an effective temperature that’s about 55°K lower than the surface. That’s the temperature of the level where photons last escape to space on average. You can use the calculalor on the spectralcalc * com site to get a rough number. As the satellite OLR spectrum shows, CO2 is quite opaque from about 13 to 16 micron. The blackbody radiance (by unit steradian) at 285K is 119W/m2/sr. The band radiance from 13 to 16 micron at 285K is 17.7W/m2/sr. This is 14.9% of the total. CO2 emits to space in that band at about 230K on average (with current 400ppm concentration, as satellite OLR spectra show). That’s a band radiance of 7.5W/m2/sr. So, that’s 10.2W/m2/sr taken out from the total surface radiance. It’s a 8.5% reduction. This may not be accurate within 10% but probably within 50%. It also ignores the issue of overlap with water vapor and other greenhouse gases. But it’s enough to counter your claim that the effect of CO2 on OLR is utterly negligible. In fact, merely glancing at the measured OLR spectrum should have been enough to convince you of that.

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Comment on Gleick’s Testimony on Threats to the Integrity of Science by facebook.com/injusticeiosh

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Comment on Open thread by Pierre-Normand

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Google “outgoing shortwave(sic) radiation”…

longwave, of course.

Comment on State of the blog discussion thread by Ragnaar

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While WUWT has value, it has been positioned too far to one side. Same with other blogs. Tongue in check, it’s a bistable situation. It takes work to to stay in the middle. But that work can have payoffs.

Comment on State of the blog discussion thread by popesclimatetheory

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When you decide which argumentation is of no value, you are the fool. Come up with your own argument points or figure you are wrong.

Comment on State of the blog discussion thread by Stephen Segrest

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Dr. Curry — I’d like to see you starting using video (with graphics), especially where you and Steven Mosher jointly talk to us on topics.

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